Playa Climate Prediction Center

Questions, answers, tips & tricks for newbies and veterans alike

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Desert_Rat » Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:52 pm

Technical discussion for next week:

"Few changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Weak ridging over the
intermountain west holds steady Sunday with a relatively deep area
of low pressure off the Pacific northwest coast. Models continue to
have difficulty resolving this area of low pressure and its
progression inland. The GFS has been trying to split the trough,
with the main energy heading across the northern rockies and the
weaker split remaining over the eastern Pacific. The ec and Gem both
hold the area of low pressure together, but differ greatly in the
progression inland, with the ec more progressive than the Gem.


Depending on which model ends up handling the first system
correctly, it will greatly impact the weather into next week. With
the GFS solution, the northern branch of the low is well east and
and the offshore portion stays over the eastern Pacific, allowing
ridging to build into the west. In the ec and Gem solutions, it
opens up the path to allow a secondary trough to drop into the west.


With either solution, a very dry air mass remains entrenched across
the region, and so will keep the forecast dry. Increased winds with
gusts 30 to 35 miles per hour can be expected Sunday ahead of the low, but wind
the rest of next week will be dependent on the track the low takes.
Have kept temperatures fairly close to seasonal norms to also
account for the uncertainty. Models are notoriously bad with
handling closed lows, especially during transition seasons such
as we are approaching in late August, therefore confidence remains
low in the long term."
User avatar
Desert_Rat
 
Posts: 11
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2012 11:12 pm
Burning Since: 2017

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby junglesmacks » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:29 am

PlayaPatrol wrote:All forecasts are mild, 90 day, 40 night, 5-20 mph winds.


40 at night? Not so much! Try barely breaking 50s!

Desert_Rat wrote:Keeps looking better and better...excellent.


Are you high on bath salts again? Did you not just read your own NWS regurgitation about a gnarly little low coming in from the Pac NW on Sunday with winds ahead of it?


WE'RE SO FUCKING DOOMED
Savannah wrote:It sounds freaky & wrong, so you need to do it.
User avatar
junglesmacks
 
Posts: 5809
Joined: Wed May 26, 2010 9:54 pm
Location: Orlando, FL/Kailua, HI
Camp Name: Your mom's tent

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby junglesmacks » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:22 am

As far ahead as we can see right now.. and taken directly from the NWS for on-playa weather:

Image
Savannah wrote:It sounds freaky & wrong, so you need to do it.
User avatar
junglesmacks
 
Posts: 5809
Joined: Wed May 26, 2010 9:54 pm
Location: Orlando, FL/Kailua, HI
Camp Name: Your mom's tent

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby theCryptofishist » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:27 am

Fair wino and following seas.
Simon's real sig line?

Embrace the Sock

Winners never quilt, quilters never win...
User avatar
theCryptofishist
 
Posts: 37421
Joined: Mon Feb 23, 2004 10:28 am
Location: In Exile
Burning Since: 2017

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Just_Joe » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:42 am

Mild winos that will lay down in the early evening.
User weather man is now Just_Joe
User avatar
Just_Joe
 
Posts: 468
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 10:04 pm
Location: Nevada
Burning Since: 2017

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby theCryptofishist » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:44 am

May the wino always be at your back...
Simon's real sig line?

Embrace the Sock

Winners never quilt, quilters never win...
User avatar
theCryptofishist
 
Posts: 37421
Joined: Mon Feb 23, 2004 10:28 am
Location: In Exile
Burning Since: 2017

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby VultureChow » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:48 am

Fishy, you are the wino beneath my wings.
Send lawyers, guns and money - The shit has hit the fan.
User avatar
VultureChow
 
Posts: 1430
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2011 4:08 pm
Burning Since: 2012
Camp Name: Cougar Camp @ Barbie Death Village

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby MacGlenver » Thu Aug 23, 2012 7:03 am

Wind! :)
"just two indecisive cowboys, trying to play a word game." - piehole
"Just apply intelligence and discretion and you should be able to get away with just about anything." - Ugly Dougly
User avatar
MacGlenver
 
Posts: 781
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2012 6:11 pm
Burning Since: 2011
Camp Name: I call this one 'Old Gregg'

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby skippy3k » Thu Aug 23, 2012 7:21 am

Every time I read this thread, it makes me want to drink.
I'm a fixer. I fix things.
User avatar
skippy3k
 
Posts: 76
Joined: Thu Jul 12, 2012 7:55 am
Location: Wine (hiccup) Country
Burning Since: 2009

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby CrispyDave » Thu Aug 23, 2012 7:30 am

Every time a bell rings a Angel get's his Wino....
Plan for the worst, expect the best.
Make the most out of it under any conditions.
If you cannot do that you will never enjoy yourself.
User avatar
CrispyDave
 
Posts: 202
Joined: Sat Jun 16, 2012 11:05 pm
Location: Santa Clara
Burning Since: 2011
Camp Name: Temple Guardians

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby RedHeaven » Thu Aug 23, 2012 7:42 am

Desert Rat, I find Wunderground to be a little too low in their temps, I go by noaa.gov, which predicts fairly decent temps as well
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 19.354&e=0

Just a little higher than wunderground.

However it is not the temps I am worried about, nor the dust or wind, its the SMOKE
Smoke is the fucking true armageddon, everything else is pleasant in comparison.
I was reminded of this yesterday when the Chips fire smoke invaded our world super fierce. Unbearable!

So at this point I am just praying for fire containment of the Rush fire especially which is west of BRC, and that stubborn Chips fire in the Feather River Canyons!!! At least Dust smells nice.

ANyone hear of any air quality reports from the playa?
User avatar
RedHeaven
 
Posts: 633
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2005 11:00 am
Location: Nevada City California
Burning Since: 2005
Camp Name: Cirque Du Cliche 4:30 and Dandelion Wine

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby MacGlenver » Thu Aug 23, 2012 7:52 am

RedHeaven wrote:However it is not the temps I am worried about, nor the dust or wind, its the SMOKE
Smoke is the fucking true armageddon, everything else is pleasant in comparison.


I can't imagine that the playa will be innundated with smoke though... I mean I expect some haze, particularly noticeable at sunrise/set, but I would think that would actually make for prettier rises/sets, no? We're not going to be choking on smoke out there, I think. I'll note that I don't believe that any of the on-playa updates have mentioned smoke other than to say that they see a bit of a haze over the mountains.

PS -- I love the smell of wood smoke, so here's hoping we get some of that! :)
"just two indecisive cowboys, trying to play a word game." - piehole
"Just apply intelligence and discretion and you should be able to get away with just about anything." - Ugly Dougly
User avatar
MacGlenver
 
Posts: 781
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2012 6:11 pm
Burning Since: 2011
Camp Name: I call this one 'Old Gregg'

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Ratty » Thu Aug 23, 2012 7:54 am

I slept through that 2010 rain. It was a welcome relief from the dust that was building. I think I saw that same sparkle pony pushing a bike. And then I saw another and another. Pulled up a chair for the show. Getting to the potties was a barefoot trip. That little bit of rain was a real pleasure.
Pictures or it didn't happen. Greycoyote
"I a recovering swagaholic. I have to resist my grabby nature" VultureChow
"Those aren't buttermilk biscuits I'm lying on" Savannah
"I'm a motherfucking skeptic tank" SimonofthePlaya
User avatar
Ratty
 
Posts: 1471
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2011 7:43 pm
Burning Since: 2008
Camp Name: Street Sign Replacement Camp

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby CrispyDave » Thu Aug 23, 2012 7:56 am

RedHeaven wrote:Desert Rat, I find Wunderground to be a little too low in their temps, I go by noaa.gov, which predicts fairly decent temps as well
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 19.354&e=0

Just a little higher than wunderground.

However it is not the temps I am worried about, nor the dust or wind, its the SMOKE
Smoke is the fucking true armageddon, everything else is pleasant in comparison.
I was reminded of this yesterday when the Chips fire smoke invaded our world super fierce. Unbearable!

So at this point I am just praying for fire containment of the Rush fire especially which is west of BRC, and that stubborn Chips fire in the Feather River Canyons!!! At least Dust smells nice.

ANyone hear of any air quality reports from the playa?


Current conditions of the Rush Fire in Northern California/North Western Nevada
If you are coming from the Northwest be advised that Smoke Creek Road is closed it is one of the roads people use coming in from NorCal.
http://inciweb.org/incident/3151/
Plan for the worst, expect the best.
Make the most out of it under any conditions.
If you cannot do that you will never enjoy yourself.
User avatar
CrispyDave
 
Posts: 202
Joined: Sat Jun 16, 2012 11:05 pm
Location: Santa Clara
Burning Since: 2011
Camp Name: Temple Guardians

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Bob » Thu Aug 23, 2012 8:10 am

Dang. I've taken that road by Robber's Roost a couple times, lots of dry sagebrush.
Amazing desert structures & stuff: http://sites.google.com/site/potatotrap/

"Let us say I suggest you may be human." -- Reverend Mother Gaius Helen Mohiam
User avatar
Bob
 
Posts: 6762
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 10:00 am
Location: San Francisco
Burning Since: 1986
Camp Name: Royaneh

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby RedHeaven » Thu Aug 23, 2012 8:36 am

Sigh....even the forest has to burn......and the sage brush....not just art!
Smoke reports til Friday, I think thats when they expect containment of the Rush fire. After yesterday's smoke fest here in GV NC I feel really bad for the workers lungs out there. Kynd Hippie Zinc Vibes their way. Hopefully it was only a hint and not the kind of blast we got. Ours is mostly from Chips fire which is burning steep grades of heavy timber. Gnarly.

Most uncomfortable I have ever been at a fest/event was High Sierra Music Fest in 2008. That was the summer there were fires all over norcal. Smoke was brutal as it filled up that Quincy valley....I dont think BRC will be that bad but I'm still sending vibez, brah.
User avatar
RedHeaven
 
Posts: 633
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2005 11:00 am
Location: Nevada City California
Burning Since: 2005
Camp Name: Cirque Du Cliche 4:30 and Dandelion Wine

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Just_Joe » Thu Aug 23, 2012 8:43 am

MacGlenver wrote:I can't imagine that the playa will be innundated with smoke though... I mean I expect some haze, particularly noticeable at sunrise/set, but I would think that would actually make for prettier rises/sets, no? We're not going to be choking on smoke out there, I think. I'll note that I don't believe that any of the on-playa updates have mentioned smoke other than to say that they see a bit of a haze over the mountains.
PS -- I love the smell of wood smoke, so here's hoping we get some of that! :)

Reports over the last two days say smoke. It looks like smog/fog. You will smell it (depending on wino), and people with respiratory sensitivity will feel it. Two weeks ago, we had trouble seeing the mountains at the edge of the playa (3-5 miles away) and the sun was up there, but muted- reminded me of an eclipse- not as much light as there *should* be with the sun so high in the sky. You'll see the moon, but stars maybe not so much.
Or maybe it will blow through with the disturbance I'm expecting this weekend?
User weather man is now Just_Joe
User avatar
Just_Joe
 
Posts: 468
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 10:04 pm
Location: Nevada
Burning Since: 2017

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby MacGlenver » Thu Aug 23, 2012 8:50 am

weather man wrote:Reports over the last two days say smoke. It looks like smog/fog. You will smell it (depending on wino), and people with respiratory sensitivity will feel it. Two weeks ago, we had trouble seeing the mountains at the edge of the playa (3-5 miles away) and the sun was up there, but muted- reminded me of an eclipse- not as much light as there *should* be with the sun so high in the sky. You'll see the moon, but stars maybe not so much.
Or maybe it will blow through with the disturbance I'm expecting this weekend?


Well, another added benefit is that lasers will look even cooler :)
"just two indecisive cowboys, trying to play a word game." - piehole
"Just apply intelligence and discretion and you should be able to get away with just about anything." - Ugly Dougly
User avatar
MacGlenver
 
Posts: 781
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2012 6:11 pm
Burning Since: 2011
Camp Name: I call this one 'Old Gregg'

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Desert_Rat » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:28 am

The prognostication for *after* Sunday is what I was most interested in. Not looking fun for those setting up Sunday evening.

It could be 100° every day for all I care and 30°at night...my concern was continual daily high winds (and epic, non-stop white-out). The smoke *does* add an additional element (pun intended), however...
User avatar
Desert_Rat
 
Posts: 11
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2012 11:12 pm
Burning Since: 2017

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Bob » Thu Aug 23, 2012 12:24 pm

NWS says the monsoonal moisture is gone and they're forecasting no heat waves thru early September. I'd still count on the typical afternoon dust-ups, though, and mandatory sage smudging from the Rush fire for another week or so.
Amazing desert structures & stuff: http://sites.google.com/site/potatotrap/

"Let us say I suggest you may be human." -- Reverend Mother Gaius Helen Mohiam
User avatar
Bob
 
Posts: 6762
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 10:00 am
Location: San Francisco
Burning Since: 1986
Camp Name: Royaneh

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby RedHeaven » Thu Aug 23, 2012 12:27 pm

http://www.rgj.com/article/20120822/NEW ... urning-Man

Crossing my fingers the smoke subsides and that the Rush fire gets contained soon so hopefully half of the time out there is spent with some fairly clear skies.
Forest fire smoke is not a pleasant smell, and it is awful to breathe.
There is that fine line between horrid and not too bad with smoke.

Yesterday we couldnt see a 1/4 mile down the road if that.
Today it has lifted a bit, Definitely depends on the wino.
User avatar
RedHeaven
 
Posts: 633
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2005 11:00 am
Location: Nevada City California
Burning Since: 2005
Camp Name: Cirque Du Cliche 4:30 and Dandelion Wine

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby RedHeaven » Thu Aug 23, 2012 12:28 pm

Bob wrote:NWS says the monsoonal moisture is gone and they're forecasting no heat waves thru early September. I'd still count on the typical afternoon dust-ups, though, and mandatory sage smudging from the Rush fire for another week or so.



Nice. I had a feeling that the heat waves would calm down and we would get some average temps come this time.
User avatar
RedHeaven
 
Posts: 633
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2005 11:00 am
Location: Nevada City California
Burning Since: 2005
Camp Name: Cirque Du Cliche 4:30 and Dandelion Wine

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Bob » Thu Aug 23, 2012 12:45 pm

NWS also has gale warnings offshore here, which in my experience telegraph to more gusty winos on the playa.
Amazing desert structures & stuff: http://sites.google.com/site/potatotrap/

"Let us say I suggest you may be human." -- Reverend Mother Gaius Helen Mohiam
User avatar
Bob
 
Posts: 6762
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 10:00 am
Location: San Francisco
Burning Since: 1986
Camp Name: Royaneh

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby captain mcguiver » Thu Aug 23, 2012 12:52 pm

From a friend on the ground:

"Definitely more dust today and more smoke. Some of us have started calling it smust. Somehow that feels kinda smutty and fun. You can really smell and see the smoke from the fire so plan ahead if you have issues with smoke. On the other hand, it makes the moon look all pinky-orange beautiful."
User avatar
captain mcguiver
 
Posts: 135
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 10:48 am
Location: san diego BRC
Burning Since: 2000
Camp Name: XaraLustmonkeysPlayaQBatCntryBunyMethLab

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Schtev » Thu Aug 23, 2012 12:57 pm

When people ask me how it went this year, I'll tell them that gusty winos endlessly blew smust in my face.
"I will not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. I will face my fear. I will let it pass through me. Where the fear has gone, there shall be nothing. Only I will remain."
User avatar
Schtev
 
Posts: 415
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 2010 2:51 pm
Burning Since: 2010
Camp Name: Camp Fuckowee

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Boijoy » Thu Aug 23, 2012 12:59 pm

I'm in Reno & the smoke is bad. Course we are in a "bowl". It doesn't smell bad,, but the sky is brown(ish) & my eyes are burning a little.
Reports here is that the smoke will be with us thru the weekend.
Im sending out good vibes for those fire fighters. They are busting ass right now!
Im thinking the wino on the playa should be able to push the smoke out though. :wink:
don't forget to floss
User avatar
Boijoy
 
Posts: 1443
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2006 4:51 pm
Location: Metro Mart. 4:30 Plaza
Burning Since: 2006
Camp Name: Metro Mart

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby skippy3k » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:02 pm

Earth, Wino and Fire.
I'm a fixer. I fix things.
User avatar
skippy3k
 
Posts: 76
Joined: Thu Jul 12, 2012 7:55 am
Location: Wine (hiccup) Country
Burning Since: 2009

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Bounce530 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:06 pm

The smoke isn't going anywhere fast. Although I'm on the other side of the fire's, we've had smoke for the last three weeks.
Containment isn't expected (for the Chips fire) until the 31st. So expect some smoke through the event, sure there will be days with light/no smoke, but I wouldn't get too excited.
TomServo wrote:Pickles are cucumbers soaked in EVIL!
User avatar
Bounce530
 
Posts: 1535
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 11:26 am
Location: H at about 4:25ish
Burning Since: 2007
Camp Name: BRC Guardian docking pad

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby maladroit » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:38 pm

If the main effect to cut the sun down a little, I think that's not too bad of a side effect. Hoping to see some really insane sunsets out there.
maladroit
 
Posts: 768
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2012 10:37 pm
Burning Since: 2012

Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby RedHeaven » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:10 pm

Im not going to sugar coat the smoke. I am not asthmatic nor sensitive but you can definitely feel it if you exercise in it, and will feel the effects later. Its just not healthy to breathe, and cannot be masked like dust can be. Shits terrible but not going to let it get me down, I'll just be sure to wear a mask more often. I'll probably be doing that anyway.....Earth Wino and Fire for sure!!! :stocks up on extra zinfandel:
User avatar
RedHeaven
 
Posts: 633
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2005 11:00 am
Location: Nevada City California
Burning Since: 2005
Camp Name: Cirque Du Cliche 4:30 and Dandelion Wine

PreviousNext

Return to Q & A Tips and Tricks

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: barkingmad and 3 guests