Identity based tickets.... Why not?

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Re: Identity based tickets.... Why not?

Postby 48_love » Tue Mar 06, 2012 2:43 pm

bradtem wrote:Scalpers do raise prices.


No they don't. The only thing that raises a price is willingness to pay coupled with supply and demand. The fact that people pay a higher price has nothing to do with scalping; it has to do with people valuing the commodity at a higher price than it was originally offered.

The point is that identity based tickets still leave people out because it's not a solution for the real problem ... the demand problem.

--

People mention the nice weather which potentially lessened attrition. I won't pretend to do well with numbers, but add 40% 2012 virgins along with let's say 10% 2011 dormant burners who are reburning based off any number of reasons from weather to the economy. If the attrition rate from 2011 was say 20%, the 2012 event would be 130% over capacity.

If there is a better anecdotal stat for attrition, that would be interesting. I just made 20% up as a 'low' number accounting for 'nice weather'.
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Re: Identity based tickets.... Why not?

Postby bradtem » Tue Mar 06, 2012 3:37 pm

[quote="48_love"

The point is that identity based tickets still leave people out because it's not a solution for the real problem ... the demand problem.

[/quote]

We'll just have to disagree on whether scalpers cause some people to pay higher prices for tickets (raise prices) or not. I don't even think it's a subjective question so we may be arguing at cross purposes.

However, the point is that identity-based tickets would reduce demand. Not just demand by scalpers, but demand by burners. Any ticket that is not as good and useful as today's tickets will reduce demand. A ticket that you can't transfer is not as good as one you can. A ticket that you can't fully refund is not as good as one you can. A ticket you can't transfer or refund at all is way less valuable than today's type of ticket, and there would be less demand for them, from burners.

There are many ways you can reduce demand. You can put restrictions on tickets, like the above. You can raise prices. You can change the nature of the event (the various proposals to ban RVs or large sound camps or whatever-else-I-don't-like.) You could say no arriving after Monday. You could say no leaving before Tuesday. You could add a $200 charge to the ticket and refund it to anybody who does a volunteer shift, including 4 hours on a playa-cleanup sweep team. There are dozens of ideas in these threads. All of them would reduce demand.
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Re: Identity based tickets.... Why not?

Postby 48_love » Tue Mar 06, 2012 4:31 pm

Scalper demand hasn't been shown to be a significant barrier to entry ... what is subjective is saying that scalper demand is a barrier and needs remedy through identity based tickets.

bradtem wrote:

We'll just have to disagree on whether scalpers cause some people to pay higher prices for tickets (raise prices) or not.


Scalpers don't 'cause' behavior ... people's choices do.
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Re: Identity based tickets.... Why not?

Postby bradtem » Tue Mar 06, 2012 5:07 pm

48_love wrote:Scalper demand hasn't been shown to be a significant barrier to entry ... what is subjective is saying that scalper demand is a barrier and needs remedy through identity based tickets.

bradtem wrote:

We'll just have to disagree on whether scalpers cause some people to pay higher prices for tickets (raise prices) or not.


Scalpers don't 'cause' behavior ... people's choices do.


You seem to want to make some sort of philosophical point about it, which is why we're at cross purposes. All I am saying is that scalpers sell tickets for more than the org does. That means the prices are higher in the aftermarket. Of course that's because people are willing to pay them -- that's kinda the whole point. In a normal market, demand and supply are equal, because price rises until they are equal. The org is not willing to raise prices to make them equal, in spite of the fact that people are willing to pay it. The scalpers are willing -- in fact it's their reason for existence. That's all. Because the org wishes to sell tickets below market value (which is defined as the value at which supply and demand are equal) org ticket sales are not a market. Indeed, this year they were a lottery instead of a market. The aftermarket is, as you would expect, a market.
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Re: Identity based tickets.... Why not?

Postby 48_love » Tue Mar 06, 2012 6:39 pm

Philosophical? My only point is that scalpers appear to be working at the margins and solving for them through identity based tickets wouldn't make it effectively easier for the majority of those who didn't get tickets in the Lottery to attend. My opinion is simple ... identity based tickets aren't a solution that help fulfill actual needs.

How is that philosophical?

I think the procedural barriers to scalping in the form of delayed ticket fulfillment and others represented a sufficient hedge against scalpers.

But hey, in June I could be proven all wrong and tickets will flood onto resale sites. But then again, we'll only have burners paying above face value to blame. So, we are the enemy. Save us from ourselves!!
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