Playa Climate Prediction Center

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Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Token » Sun Feb 05, 2012 5:04 pm

After much toil and visiting authoritative sites on both Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Nino Southern Oscillation, staring at random data looking for patterns in the noise, combined with both published and seat-o-the-pants emperical data on Playa weather ...

... The fine folks at "Token's Angry Serb Playa Climate Prediction Center™" have run their gerbils flat silly trying to make sense of the complex data:

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Henceforth we present our observation and flex our prognostication muscle for the Playa 2012 season.

Based on historical data, a multi-year La Nina event following a strong El Nino season, the expected end of the La Nina cycle this summer, the fact that we have experienced the rain and cold of 2010, much as we did in 1999, followed by an unimpressive 2011 ...

2012 is due to be a scorcher, much like 2001.

Be prepared for massive dust and heat, upon heat, upon heat!


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Now back to your regularly scheduled ticket hysteria.
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby FIGJAM » Sun Feb 05, 2012 5:19 pm

Meh, I can fix that! 8)
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby MikieCGY » Tue Feb 21, 2012 9:45 am

Is it not a dry heat anyways? Just well hydrate yourself and thats good!

granted tho curing a hangover int he desert won't be easy!
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Just_Joe » Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:00 am

Token wrote:
2012 is due to be a scorcher, much like 2001.

Be prepared for massive dust and heat, upon heat, upon heat!


I approve this message.
Best bet is to stay away.... or build a FIGJAMachine.
Next year was much better anyway.
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Simon of the Playa » Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:07 am

i guess this means the back of the ticket is actually pertinent info because



YOU MAY DIE!!!


no seriously, if you have never been to Black rock desert, you had better begin to respect it by preparing properly.

temperature swings of 50 degrees within 12 hours are NOT UNUSUAL.

winds of over 70 mph and dust storms that last HOURS are not unusual.

Last Years NEAR PERFECT WEATHER was REALLY FUCKING UNUSUAL.

so, you better bring more than just wine and cheese to this picnic.
breathe deep, the playa is the dust of your ancestors

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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby lemur » Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:18 am

Simon of the Playa wrote:i guess this means the back of the ticket is actually pertinent info because



YOU MAY DIE!!!


no seriously, if you have never been to Black rock desert, you had better begin to respect it by preparing properly.

temperature swings of 50 degrees within 12 hours are NOT UNUSUAL.

winds of over 70 mph and dust storms that last HOURS are not unusual.

Last Years NEAR PERFECT WEATHER was REALLY FUCKING UNUSUAL.

so, you better bring more than just wine and cheese to this picnic.



cue people saying "BUT I GREW UP AROUND HOT ENVIRONMENTS...NO BIG DEAL"
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby ygmir » Tue Feb 21, 2012 12:41 pm

I can see a mass exodus, after the first 14 hour, 115 degree dust storm, that will leave BRC pretty quiet.......and, drop attendance for the following year, when people come out and say how nasty it is there............
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Jackass » Tue Feb 21, 2012 12:46 pm

ygmir wrote:I can see a mass exodus, after the first 14 hour, 115 degree dust storm, that will leave BRC pretty quiet.......and, drop attendance for the following year, when people come out and say how nasty it is there............



It's not a question of if, but when???
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby thisisthatwhichis » Tue Feb 21, 2012 1:03 pm

After this years lack of moisture, plan to be one with the dust... YG is right, we should have the Playa to ourselves after thurs-fri............ :D
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Sham » Tue Feb 21, 2012 1:13 pm

I have sat in massive dust storms with 50mph winds at the entrance and watched people make u-turns and head the fuck home. If you've never been in a complete whiteout dust storm that lasts for 8 hours, you're in for a treat. This winter has been extremely dry in the Black Rock Desert--an indication of the dust bowl conditions for 2012.

For those happy first timers who think this is a picnic, read the survival guide in my address below and take it VERY, VERY seriously. Plan on everything that you bring, to get dust covered and trashed. Anticipate your tent being picked up by the wind and dropped miles away. It may not happen, but plan on it with heavy stakes and firm guy lines.

Other years have been torrential rain and a playa surface that was non drivable muck. Playa platform shoes, are shoes that pick up the playa surface and form several inches of clay that can't be removed without a blade to cut it off.

Nights below freezing and days over 100 degrees. Plan for hot and plan for cold.

Did you read that survival guide yet?
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby kittyrodriguez » Tue Feb 21, 2012 1:24 pm

lemur wrote:cue people saying "BUT I GREW UP AROUND HOT ENVIRONMENTS...NO BIG DEAL"


Now that's not entirely fair. Some of us do live in HOT climates. 100 degrees in the desert is balmy if you live somewhere that reaches 110 and is humid. In fact I wish I was there now. Its 85% and feels like a sauna outside. Its February.

But, unless you live in the suburbs of hell like us, the desert is a formidable foe. I will say that water has never tasted as delicious as it does out there. Maybe its the alkali... Or maybe I was just thirsty as fuck. :D
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Trishntek » Tue Feb 21, 2012 1:26 pm

When it comes to the Survival Guide and the First Timers Guide, I tell all virgins camping with me to read it once and then read again. If you think you understand it all, read it a THIRD TIME to be sure you comprehend the importance of being prepared for anything. It could be wet it could be dry. It could be hot and it could be cold. It could be windy and it could be howling. There will be weather! We are at the mercy of the elements! Bring what you think you need and add 50% for all extremes. It's much better to have it and not need it than to need it and not have it.

To this day, I can go into my BM stuff in the garage and feel that minute amount of dust suck the moisture out of me. Dry heat is only part of it. The dust itself is dehydrating.
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby junglesmacks » Tue Feb 21, 2012 1:56 pm

kittyrodriguez wrote:
lemur wrote:cue people saying "BUT I GREW UP AROUND HOT ENVIRONMENTS...NO BIG DEAL"


Now that's not entirely fair. Some of us do live in HOT climates. 100 degrees in the desert is balmy if you live somewhere that reaches 110 and is humid. In fact I wish I was there now. Its 85% and feels like a sauna outside. Its February.

But, unless you live in the suburbs of hell like us, the desert is a formidable foe. I will say that water has never tasted as delicious as it does out there. Maybe its the alkali... Or maybe I was just thirsty as fuck. :D


Lol.. very true. I always hit the playa after a full FL summer of 97 degrees with 80% humidity and it feels like childs play while everyone else is scurrying to cover skin.
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby BoyScoutGirl » Tue Feb 21, 2012 5:46 pm

Shambala wrote: If you've never been in a complete whiteout dust storm that lasts for 8 hours, you're in for a treat.


Every time I read the "Remember, man, thou art dust!" thread, I try to keep the "treat" angle in mind.

...it's working. :D
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Sham » Tue Feb 21, 2012 6:28 pm

I recall a dust storm, I think it was 2007, which was so strong you could not communicate with anyone. It was howling so loud and furious that you could only try to shield yourself. There was an older Asian couple who simply weren't prepared, so I dig out 2 spare bandanas and gave them to them. They were grateful as hell, but we never spoke. That weather there can be some crazy shit!
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby tamarakay » Tue Feb 21, 2012 6:41 pm

Yep yep, 115 and 85%humidity last summer. Bring it.
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Dr Helix » Tue Feb 21, 2012 6:58 pm

Shambala wrote:I recall a dust storm, I think it was 2007, which was so strong you could not communicate with anyone. It was howling so loud and furious that you could only try to shield yourself. There was an older Asian couple who simply weren't prepared, so I dig out 2 spare bandanas and gave them to them. They were grateful as hell, but we never spoke. That weather there can be some crazy shit!
Virgins, watch this short video!


I have to say it. The best part of this video is, that despite the wind HOWLING throughout, there is music being played. And listened to. And THAT"S what BM is all about.
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby motskyroonmatick » Tue Feb 21, 2012 7:01 pm

I was out in Deep Playa during that whole storm. We gathered our crew up in a wooden dome like thing that was barely a refuge from the storm and hunkered down. Once the storm passed we headed for the Big Rig Jig and resumed giving away ice cream.
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Savannah » Wed Feb 22, 2012 12:52 am

How long was the 2007 storm people are referencing? I missed that year!
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Eric » Wed Feb 22, 2012 1:31 am

I remember a couple in 2007, but the long one (I posted videos from where I was in the "thou art dust" thread) lasted about 1/2 hour to 45 minutes in Center Camp (we were on the 5:30 side of Ring Road, whatever it was called that year). Blinding dust, couldn't see a damn thing. Personally I hunkered down under a blanket in the dome with a cute boy- didn't feel like walking the 20 steps to the RV...

In 2010 we were at 3:30 (or 4) & Esplanade and were hit with an endless dust-storm burn night, and the one on Sunday hit us for hours on end. We gave up breaking down camp & just partied on.
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby motskyroonmatick » Wed Feb 22, 2012 6:52 pm

Savannah wrote:How long was the 2007 storm people are referencing? I missed that year!


I think the Deep Playa storm was about 45 minutes to an hour. The storm on Monday evening/night was at least 7 hours long. I don't know when the storm ended because amazingly I fell asleep with my tent making a horrible racket and bouncing back and fourth with the wind.

There was an amazing amount of driving going on during that storm. Even being 50 feet off of the road we had to warn vehicles off with flashlights. No one should have been driving in those conditions. The grimly funny part was about 2/3 of the vehicles that I saw were driving the wrong direction towards 10:00.
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby unjonharley » Wed Feb 22, 2012 7:39 pm

In 2008 I camped on the desert after leaving BM.. Put the sleeping roll on the ground.
Woke up to 25 degrees with a frost out line where my head had been on the pillow..

Come in late Sun night in 2007.. Set a cot on the lee side of the van.WRapped up in a small tarp for some sleep.. Damn wind come up under the van, turned the cot over..My kid was rolled up in a tarp on the ground.. He laughed his ass off at me..

Set camp late Sun 2005.. Two car ports at right angel with side walls.. Took a three hour wind storm that rocked the van inside the carports. The wind died down around four o clock.. I went out an checked the lines. Everything seemed ok.. Then a last gust hit and tipped one of the carports right over on it's top.. Guy next to us welded some on the bent up tubes.. I don't use carports any more..
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Minxy » Wed Feb 22, 2012 8:49 pm

That 2007 storm was so much fun!

It was my first playa white-out. I was out by that beautiful temple by myself and it was both scary and exhilarating! I hunkered for a bit then jumped around, danced, yelled and acted completely goofy. :D

I ended up grouping up with some folks and making our way slowly back to the city.

I was so thankful that I'd come prepared with goggles and dust mask when I went out exploring!
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby vapor » Wed Feb 22, 2012 10:39 pm

I'd have to say the storm post event 2001 was the most amazing I've ever experienced. Mid-day (Tuesday, I think) the wind kicked up, then blew at a steady 30-40 knots, gusts higher. By noon the light at ground level was about the same as dawn or dusk. Walking required leaning into the wind . . . I walked out of my trailer, after 6' from the door I was quite literally lost, couldn't see 2', I slowly turned and eventually found the door. Stayed inside the rest of the day. That one actually scared me, getting lost just a few feet from my camp. I love those memories that are seared in through violent experience . . .
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby ygmir » Wed Feb 22, 2012 10:45 pm

it's also interesting, to sit a half mile outside the city, in windy, but clear air, and look at the city.
it can look like a "dust dome"..........all the dust stirred up inside the city, but, around it, it's just windy.
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Savannah » Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:16 am

motskyroonmatick wrote:
Savannah wrote:How long was the 2007 storm people are referencing? I missed that year!


I think the Deep Playa storm was about 45 minutes to an hour. The storm on Monday evening/night was at least 7 hours long. I don't know when the storm ended because amazingly I fell asleep with my tent making a horrible racket and bouncing back and fourth with the wind.

There was an amazing amount of driving going on during that storm. Even being 50 feet off of the road we had to warn vehicles off with flashlights. No one should have been driving in those conditions. The grimly funny part was about 2/3 of the vehicles that I saw were driving the wrong direction towards 10:00.


:lol:

Man, remember the people driving through the rain and mud on Monday in 2010 before the double rainbow?!

It was so quiet except for the rain itself . . . and the the buzz of a few unlucky motorists actively trying to locate campsites in the craziness and the miring mud. People down the street were yelling "Stop, stop!" and others--further down still--were yelling "Don't stop! Don't stop!" Go, go, go!"
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Just_Joe » Thu Feb 23, 2012 11:10 am

Savannah wrote:Man, remember the people driving through the rain and mud on Monday in 2010 before the double rainbow?!

It was so quiet except for the rain itself . . . and the the buzz of a few unlucky motorists actively trying to locate campsites in the craziness and the miring mud. People down the street were yelling "Stop, stop!" and others--further down still--were yelling "Don't stop! Don't stop!" Go, go, go!"

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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby ygmir » Thu Feb 23, 2012 11:23 am

haha, the 2010 rainstorm........some total sparkle pony, walks up to our camp, makeup running, feathers drenched, shivering......and pushing her bike, well skidding it, because the tires got so big, they wouldn't even roll, crying, and asks for "help".........well, of course, we offer her a seat in the "shade", and get her out of the rain.
then, she asks "can you fix my bike, it's all muddy and icky"..........
I'm trying not to laugh out loud, because I see she's suffering, and so distraught about her "costume". But say, "no"
She looks at me aghast, and I follow with: "it's raining, it's muddy, and it's going to be that way, for a while......you might as well just accept your bike is dirty, and so are you" but, I'll make you a warm drink, if you like"

She asks "how am I to get back to my camp?
I ask "where"
she says "somewhere over by 8 o-clock" (we're at 5), can you give me a ride?"

nope , you may just want to walk.

she said: "how do I get my bike there"
I said, "leave it here, lock it, and we'll watch it. come back after things dry out"

She proceeded to lock it,then turned and said "awe, fuck it, I hate this" and stormed off.

At that point I did start to giggle.

she did come back, at some point and get her bike.
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby Simon of the Playa » Thu Feb 23, 2012 11:38 am

yes, thats all fine and good, but was she topless?
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Re: Playa Climate Prediction Center

Postby motskyroonmatick » Thu Feb 23, 2012 6:44 pm

Simon of the Playa wrote:yes, thats all fine and good, but was she topless?


Since you mentioned it.....

I was obsessing with broom in hand over having a dry mud free place for people to hang out since shade was DESTROYED!!!! I was sweeping mud clods out of the cuddle puddle and making sure all the muddy shoes were in a good place.....When suddenly this dripping wet topless shivering woman appeared just outside of the cuddle puddle asking for a sweater. Naturally I invited her under the tarp but she declined with body language that was all about being miserably cold and wanting warmth and a bit of modesty back. Since I couldn't make it stop raining on her I soiled my now impeccably clean shoes with an immediate trip to the worlds greatest box truck for my contest winning ugly sweater. I returned with it and handed it over asking if possible she could return the sweater at some point. I was kind of attached to that sweater as it was so prize winningly terribly outrageous. It had an 18 inch turtle neck!!! I never saw her or the sweater again.
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