Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

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Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby kujo » Thu Feb 16, 2012 12:58 pm

I had originally assumed scalpers were waiting to post tickets until after the March Sale. Now that this sale is no longer occurring, there should have been a huge influx to ticket sale sites like stubhub. Right now panic is at its highest, and in general tickets sell for the highest price when people are panicking and irrational.

This hasn't happened. Ticket prices have spiked massively higher and the number of tickets available has also dropped dramatically. People are not posting more tickets.

On the largest ticket resale site stubhub, there are only 58 tickets available and so far only about 110 sold. Compare that to 2000 currently on sale for Coachella with many more already sold. And coachella tickets are still selling for way over face value

This tells me that scalpers got very few tickets.

For those without tickets this is bad news. It would have been better for them if lots of scalpers got tickets causing competition and causing the supply and demand curve to benefit the buyer.

This hasn't happened. Prices continue to move higher, supply is going down rapidly without being replaced, and sellers are not undercutting each other. There is almost no available supply (Even on the black market) and huge demand.

You can guess what happens next.

However for burning man in general I think this is great news. It means the vast majority of ticket sales went to attendees. Wasn't that the plan all along?
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby wraith » Thu Feb 16, 2012 1:02 pm

Because the longer they sit on the tickets, the more desperate the Burners will be, thus the higher prices they can command. It's simple.

If people are willing to fork out over $1k now, they're betting on closer to $2k in June. Prices will spike up once the Open Sale tickets go out, and the low-income program is exhausted, then again once the BLM sets a hard limit to occupancy.

Basic economics.
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby kujo » Thu Feb 16, 2012 1:10 pm

wraith wrote:Because the longer they sit on the tickets, the more desperate the Burners will be, thus the higher prices they can command. It's simple.

If people are willing to fork out over $1k now, they're betting on closer to $2k in June.


Scalpers don't work together. Just how buyers can't help themselves from paying above face value. Sellers can help themselves from taking quick profits or undercutting each other. Its human nature. Sure some scalpers are waiting but the fact that only 56 tickets are listed after the cancelling of the general sale tells me there are just not that many tickets that went to scalpers. Tickets prices sell highest on average within a few days of a sell out. Last nights announcement was the equivilant of that and there have been almost 0 new tickets listed.
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby wraith » Thu Feb 16, 2012 1:12 pm

kujo wrote:
wraith wrote:Because the longer they sit on the tickets, the more desperate the Burners will be, thus the higher prices they can command. It's simple.

If people are willing to fork out over $1k now, they're betting on closer to $2k in June.


Scalpers don't work together. Just how buyers can't help themselves from paying above face value. Sellers can help themselves from taking quick profits or undercutting each other. Its human nature. Sure some scalpers are waiting but the fact that only 56 tickets are listed after the cancelling of the general sale tells me there are just not that many tickets that went to scalpers. Tickets prices sell highest on average within a few days of a sell out. Last nights announcement was the equivilant of that and there have been almost 0 new tickets listed.


You're new to this, aren't you. Of course they work together. Not in the sense of being organized, but in the sense that they all can see the shitstorm building and anticipate the massive profits coming once the tickets are actually sold out.
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby kujo » Thu Feb 16, 2012 1:24 pm

wraith wrote:
kujo wrote:
wraith wrote:Because the longer they sit on the tickets, the more desperate the Burners will be, thus the higher prices they can command. It's simple.

If people are willing to fork out over $1k now, they're betting on closer to $2k in June.


Scalpers don't work together. Just how buyers can't help themselves from paying above face value. Sellers can help themselves from taking quick profits or undercutting each other. Its human nature. Sure some scalpers are waiting but the fact that only 56 tickets are listed after the cancelling of the general sale tells me there are just not that many tickets that went to scalpers. Tickets prices sell highest on average within a few days of a sell out. Last nights announcement was the equivilant of that and there have been almost 0 new tickets listed.


You're new to this, aren't you. Of course they work together. Not in the sense of being organized, but in the sense that they all can see the shitstorm building and anticipate the massive profits coming once the tickets are actually sold out.


I'm basing my opinion on how ticket sales to other sold out events have played out. ( I waited till last minute to buy sasquatch festival tickets last year because scalpers had to many and paid about 1/2 face value) The lack of almost any listed tickets after a virtual sell out for all accept camps is not normal of a 50,000 + person event.
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby Herring » Thu Feb 16, 2012 1:33 pm

Also, most amateur scalpers are probably waiting until thy actually get physical tickets mailed out to them so they can post hard ticket in hand listings.

Can partiserve revoke tickets for violating TOS #17 once they've been mailed out?

17. This ticket is a revocable license that may be revoked by Burning Man for any reason, including without limitation assisting people with unauthorized or un-ticketed entry to the Event...

...Burning Man retains the right to cancel, rescind or revoke any ticket purchases at any time prior to delivery of the actual tickets to the purchaser, for any reason whatsoever at Burning Man’s sole discretion. If anyone purchases a Burning Man ticket with the express intention of reselling it for above face value, or attempts to sell or sells a ticket for above face value, Burning Man has the absolute right, in its sole discretion, to cancel any such ticket order cancelled without advance notice.


Maybe everyone here is doing a good job being vigilant and getting Craigslist sellers flagged and their tickets revoked.
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby danibel » Thu Feb 16, 2012 1:36 pm

The lack of jump in tickets has me believing that the real ticket holders are hoarders. Really. People who put in for 2 but only needed one. It gives me high hope today (I feel very differently today than I did yesterday), that STEP might actually work, and most of my campmates and friends will get tickets before the burn.

FACE VALUE OR FUCK OFF.
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby wraith » Thu Feb 16, 2012 1:37 pm

Herring wrote:Also, most amateur scalpers are probably waiting until thy actually get physical tickets mailed out to them so they can post hard ticket in hand listings.

Can partiserve revoke tickets for violating TOS #17 once they've been mailed out?

17. This ticket is a revocable license that may be revoked by Burning Man for any reason, including without limitation assisting people with unauthorized or un-ticketed entry to the Event...

...Burning Man retains the right to cancel, rescind or revoke any ticket purchases at any time prior to delivery of the actual tickets to the purchaser, for any reason whatsoever at Burning Man’s sole discretion. If anyone purchases a Burning Man ticket with the express intention of reselling it for above face value, or attempts to sell or sells a ticket for above face value, Burning Man has the absolute right, in its sole discretion, to cancel any such ticket order cancelled without advance notice.


Maybe everyone here is doing a good job being vigilant and getting Craigslist sellers flagged and their tickets revoked.


The StubHub ones are either selling or being pulled and replaced at higher prices. Cheapest last night was around $750, today it's just a couple bucks under $1k.
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby kujo » Thu Feb 16, 2012 1:38 pm

Herring wrote:Also, most amateur scalpers are probably waiting until thy actually get physical tickets mailed out to them so they can post hard ticket in hand listings.

Can partiserve revoke tickets for violating TOS #17 once they've been mailed out?

17. This ticket is a revocable license that may be revoked by Burning Man for any reason, including without limitation assisting people with unauthorized or un-ticketed entry to the Event...

...Burning Man retains the right to cancel, rescind or revoke any ticket purchases at any time prior to delivery of the actual tickets to the purchaser, for any reason whatsoever at Burning Man’s sole discretion. If anyone purchases a Burning Man ticket with the express intention of reselling it for above face value, or attempts to sell or sells a ticket for above face value, Burning Man has the absolute right, in its sole discretion, to cancel any such ticket order cancelled without advance notice.


Maybe everyone here is doing a good job being vigilant and getting Craigslist sellers flagged and their tickets revoked.


Coachella tickets are not being sent till June and there are over 2000 listed. So I don't think they are waiting.

Unlike other events, scalpers actually mess with the culture of burning man and are hated more because of it. No one who is semi intelligent would sell there tix on craigslist or ebay because it's much easier to identify people there. Stubhub and other ticket sites let you be anonymous until the buyer actually receives the tickets in the mail. By that time they are not going to call in and say hey can you cancel the tickets I just bought. Most tickets should be on stubhub and they are not.
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby kujo » Thu Feb 16, 2012 1:41 pm

The StubHub ones are either selling or being pulled and replaced at higher prices. Cheapest last night was around $750, today it's just a couple bucks under $1k.[/quote]

Stubhub wont pull these tickets since the seller has confirmation they will be mailed. It is within the normal TOS for Stubhub for them to be put up for sale. When you sell tickets you put a date of which the tickets will be in hand (up to a week or so before the event). This allows people to sell tickets they bought but have not yet received.
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby vargaso » Thu Feb 16, 2012 1:52 pm

I think I may have to change my mind and agree with the OP that scalpers got very few tickets from the lottery. I agree that last night's announcement was the equivalent of a sold out event, and tickets should have started showing up with greater frequency on scalping sites. Not all of them, but certainly more than there were yesterday at this time. Smart scalpers will trickle their supply throughout the time period leading up to an event, with the most fertile periods being right after it sold out (last night, for intents and purposes) and then the week or so before the event. It's true there are no physical tickets in hand, and really, that's the final variable. We'll see in June just how many scalpers got them, but as some of stated, other events like Coachella also delay ticket shipments, and those events have many times more tickets for sale online currently.
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby wraith » Thu Feb 16, 2012 1:59 pm

vargaso wrote:I think I may have to change my mind and agree with the OP that scalpers got very few tickets from the lottery. I agree that last night's announcement was the equivalent of a sold out event, and tickets should have started showing up with greater frequency on scalping sites. Not all of them, but certainly more than there were yesterday at this time. Smart scalpers will trickle their supply throughout the time period leading up to an event, with the most fertile periods being right after it sold out (last night, for intents and purposes) and then the week or so before the event. It's true there are no physical tickets in hand, and really, that's the final variable. We'll see in June just how many scalpers got them, but as some of stated, other events like Coachella also delay ticket shipments, and those events have many times more tickets for sale online currently.


Last night wasn't the panic point. That'll come once the formerly-open-sale-bound tickets are distributed and the big money camps start looking for ways to flesh out their rosters.
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby kujo » Thu Feb 16, 2012 2:04 pm

wraith wrote:
vargaso wrote:I think I may have to change my mind and agree with the OP that scalpers got very few tickets from the lottery. I agree that last night's announcement was the equivalent of a sold out event, and tickets should have started showing up with greater frequency on scalping sites. Not all of them, but certainly more than there were yesterday at this time. Smart scalpers will trickle their supply throughout the time period leading up to an event, with the most fertile periods being right after it sold out (last night, for intents and purposes) and then the week or so before the event. It's true there are no physical tickets in hand, and really, that's the final variable. We'll see in June just how many scalpers got them, but as some of stated, other events like Coachella also delay ticket shipments, and those events have many times more tickets for sale online currently.


Last night wasn't the panic point. That'll come once the formerly-open-sale-bound tickets are distributed and the big money camps start looking for ways to flesh out their rosters.


That's an opinion. Though there very well could be more panic a that point, I think most camps will get enough tickets to function effectively and scoff at paying $1000 to have an extra person carry stuff.

In any case last night was a significant panic point. At the very least there should have been a decent increase in tickets being sold.
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby A Jester » Thu Feb 16, 2012 2:11 pm

In before shitstorm.

(Also, I agree, but it may be that any minute now you'll be arguing with 10 people)
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby vargaso » Thu Feb 16, 2012 2:19 pm

wraith wrote:
vargaso wrote:I think I may have to change my mind and agree with the OP that scalpers got very few tickets from the lottery. I agree that last night's announcement was the equivalent of a sold out event, and tickets should have started showing up with greater frequency on scalping sites. Not all of them, but certainly more than there were yesterday at this time. Smart scalpers will trickle their supply throughout the time period leading up to an event, with the most fertile periods being right after it sold out (last night, for intents and purposes) and then the week or so before the event. It's true there are no physical tickets in hand, and really, that's the final variable. We'll see in June just how many scalpers got them, but as some of stated, other events like Coachella also delay ticket shipments, and those events have many times more tickets for sale online currently.


Last night wasn't the panic point. That'll come once the formerly-open-sale-bound tickets are distributed and the big money camps start looking for ways to flesh out their rosters.


It was certainly A panic point. It's crazy to suggest otherwise. There should have been SOME uptick in tickets for sale online after the announcement if scalpers had a bunch, but there are actually fewer now. I don't see how that's a point that can be argued. We may argue about what point is MORE of a panic point, but other than that...
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby A Jester » Thu Feb 16, 2012 2:56 pm

kujo wrote:
wraith wrote:Because the longer they sit on the tickets, the more desperate the Burners will be, thus the higher prices they can command. It's simple.

If people are willing to fork out over $1k now, they're betting on closer to $2k in June.


Scalpers don't work together. Just how buyers can't help themselves from paying above face value. Sellers can help themselves from taking quick profits or undercutting each other. Its human nature. Sure some scalpers are waiting but the fact that only 56 tickets are listed after the cancelling of the general sale tells me there are just not that many tickets that went to scalpers. Tickets prices sell highest on average within a few days of a sell out. Last nights announcement was the equivilant of that and there have been almost 0 new tickets listed.



Wraith either doesn't know what he's talking about, or is a scalper.
Either way I don't trust him....

I bet he's got extra tickets.
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby Smenkare » Thu Feb 16, 2012 3:06 pm

[quote="wraith"]
Last night wasn't the panic point. That'll come once the formerly-open-sale-bound tickets are distributed and the big money camps start looking for ways to flesh out their rosters. [/quote]

Agreed.

That is going to be one bottle neck that's going to favor scalping. 10k tickets, and not EVERY camper in a huge theme camp's going to get one. Some members of those camps will likely be tempted by the prospect of paying above face value to joing their camp mates/friends/partners.


[quote="vargaso"] That's an opinion. Though there very well could be more panic a that point, I think most camps will get enough tickets to function effectively and scoff at paying $1000 to have an extra person carry stuff.

In any case last night was a significant panic point. At the very least there should have been a decent increase in tickets being sold. [/quote]

Last night was a panic point, but also an EXPLOSIVE anger point. Burning Man is more than just a giant dance party in the desert there are social-cultural principles that aren't found at Sasquatch, Lolapalooza or festivals where anything is "bought and sold", The playa economy is non-capitalistic, scalping stabs at the very heart of that.
The backlash of anger before the redistrobition of remaining tickets and the kick-off of the step program would have been fierce. I'm not surprised there aren't that many tickets up for sale. We're not that desperate yet. There are other avenues yet available to get tickets.
The desperation bottle necks will occur:
After the Theme camps get the remaining 10k tickets redistrobuted.
After STEP has been exhausted.
That's when people will start to get REALLY desperate and some of the anger has died down.

The scalper's primary goal (to make money) is also their biggest weakness. As the burn aproaches, if scalpers are actually sitting on hoards of tickets that no one's buying, the asking prices will go down and the market will flood as they try to recoupe their losses, so even if they sold a handful of tickets at the beginning of the feeding frenzy for $1500-$2000 each, if they do indeed have hundreds of tickets that no one wants to pay that amount of money for, the prices will go down...and down...and down with some cases of tickets going for face value or less than face value if the scalpers can't move them and need to recoup their losses.

Time will tell.

In the meantime, I'm planning for regionals, and post-Mayan-apocalypse ideas for BM 2013.
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby urvile » Thu Feb 16, 2012 3:16 pm

Remember professional scalpers (stub hub, etc.) will often post tickets they don't even have, based on speculation that they can get the ticket. We know they certainly aren't holding physical tickets because they haven't been printed yet. But we also don;t know if or how many actual confirmation they are holding in anticipation of tickets. The thing is, they post, regardless of whether or not they even have that. They are posting in anticipation/speculation that they will be able to get one to pass on. So even if you bought a ticket from them, there is no guarantee they will even be able to get the ticket you supposedly bought, and they will simply cancel the sale if they can't get it or get someone else to pay more.

Shady business practices, but what do you expect from these guys.

I also agree that if they were holding that many confirmation, they'd be advertising them, because panic is at it's peak right now. As time goes on, more people will find tickets from friends, friends of friends, theme camps, volunteers, changed plans, people who decide not to go, etc., and they'll actually have a harder time selling them as more rational market behavior (well what passes for rational behavior among burners) comes back.

Relax and breathe everyone. There's a long way to go and anything can happen. 8)
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby BBadger » Thu Feb 16, 2012 3:18 pm

Smenkare: Please go into your Profile settings and enable BBCode by default under Board Preferences -> Edit Posting Defaults.
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby kujo » Thu Feb 16, 2012 3:29 pm

Smenkare wrote:
The scalper's primary goal (to make money) is also their biggest weakness. As the burn aproaches, if scalpers are actually sitting on hoards of tickets that no one's buying, the asking prices will go down and the market will flood as they try to recoupe their losses, so even if they sold a handful of tickets at the beginning of the feeding frenzy for $1500-$2000 each, if they do indeed have hundreds of tickets that no one wants to pay that amount of money for, the prices will go down...and down...and down with some cases of tickets going for face value or less than face value if the scalpers can't move them and need to recoup their losses.



Most scalpers are normal people or small groups of normal people who see an opportunity to make money on something they see as a commodity with no emotional tie to. Large scalping operations are much less prevalent since anyone can be a scalper now. Also, many of the tickets left at the end are from people who find out they can't go. Not scalpers. If a scalper cannot gauge the price and demand for an event he won't be in business for very long. Especially because they have to sell the ticket at at least 25% over face value to even break even on these ticket broker sites.

Arguing when the most panic will set in is not relevant. What is relevant is that a large opportunity came up last night that should have seen large amounts of tickets released into stubhub. One scalper may think now's the best time while another may think its better to wait, but overall there should have been a significant increase in ticket availability. There was not. This shows to me that there are not many scalpers with tickets.

This could mean 2 things.

1. A lot of burners have tickets and are going to distribute them to friends or through STEP in the next few months. Those looking for a ticket will get one at a reasonable price in the end.

2. Most of the tickets sold have already been distributed to camp mates friends newbies etc. There are very few tickets that aren't already owned by burners. The price keeps rising all the way up to August since there is almost no supply.
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby wraith » Thu Feb 16, 2012 11:27 pm

82 tickets on StubHub now, from $940 to $5000. Median prices are now in the $1800-2k range.

This isn't getting any better.
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby trilobyte » Thu Feb 16, 2012 11:37 pm

You can either believe that pro and amateur scalpers have all independently chosen to treat Burning Man differently than any other 'hot ticket' event, or that the ticketing system has been fairly successful in blocking professional scalpers and their proxy networks. Based on the evidence I've seen, I believe it's the latter. We'll see how it plays out.
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby Stephendragonfly » Fri Feb 17, 2012 12:06 am

The Stubhubbys didn't just sell all of the $700.00 tickets last night, did they? Or did they just move the prices up?

I think that a lot of ticket rights are currently in the hands of speculators. After STEP has played out we will likely see another price jump and maybe more tickets available. When the physical tickets are mailed out, we will see another spike. But as the Burn approaches the price will go down. By the week of the Burn, one ought to be able to pick up tickets for cost or less.

What really worries me about this scenario is that a lot of people may decide to go at the last minute, without being properly prepared to camp out for a week in the desert.

Of course, I could be totally wrong.
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby JStep » Fri Feb 17, 2012 12:30 am

trilobyte wrote:You can either believe that pro and amateur scalpers have all independently chosen to treat Burning Man differently than any other 'hot ticket' event, or that the ticketing system has been fairly successful in blocking professional scalpers and their proxy networks. Based on the evidence I've seen, I believe it's the latter. We'll see how it plays out.


Goddamit it's really wrecking my juju here, I really like a good juicy conspiracy yarn... Tell me more about the hordes of sinister scalpers., Mr. Green Jeans!
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby Stephendragonfly » Fri Feb 17, 2012 12:48 am

JStep wrote:
trilobyte wrote:You can either believe that pro and amateur scalpers have all independently chosen to treat Burning Man differently than any other 'hot ticket' event, or that the ticketing system has been fairly successful in blocking professional scalpers and their proxy networks. Based on the evidence I've seen, I believe it's the latter. We'll see how it plays out.


Goddamit it's really wrecking my juju here, I really like a good juicy conspiracy yarn... Tell me more about the hordes of sinister scalpers., Mr. Green Jeans!


Conspiracy theories??
Okay, how bout this one, the FBI/NSA/Homeland Security are the ones who rigged the lottery. They are planning a theme camp that will be rendering single hippies at random, filling them with tons of mind altering drugs, and then sending them out onto the Playa in the middle of the night to create havoc.
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby dust&music » Fri Feb 17, 2012 1:35 am

[quote="kujo"][quote="wraith"][quote="vargaso"]I think I may have to change my mind and agree with the OP that scalpers got very few tickets from the lottery. I agree that last night's announcement was the equivalent of a sold out event, and tickets should have started showing up with greater frequency on scalping sites. Not all of them, but certainly more than there were yesterday at this time. Smart scalpers will trickle their supply throughout the time period leading up to an event, with the most fertile periods being right after it sold out (last night, for intents and purposes) and then the week or so before the event. It's true there are no physical tickets in hand, and really, that's the final variable. We'll see in June just how many scalpers got them, but as some of stated, other events like Coachella also delay ticket shipments, and those events have many times more tickets for sale online currently.[/quote]

Last night wasn't the panic point. That'll come once the formerly-open-sale-bound tickets are distributed and the big money camps start looking for ways to flesh out their rosters.[/quote]

That's an opinion. Though there very well could be more panic a that point, I think most camps will get enough tickets to function effectively and scoff at paying $1000 to have an extra person carry stuff.

In any case last night was a significant panic point. At the very least there should have been a decent increase in tickets being sold.[/quote]

There are some pretty significant differences between Coachella and Burning Man.

-First, Coachella is in April and Burning Man is at the end of August. Therefore, scalpers are trying to move those tickets now.
-Also, Coachella is two weekends now with over 150,000 tickets. Which means a whole lot more opportunity for scalpers to acquire tickets.
-Coachella also had a registration but anyone who registered was able to go on the site and buy tickets.
-Lastly, anyone who has dealt with Ticket master or any other ticket agencies know that they will set huge blocks of tickets aside for brokers who guarente to buy large blocks. A practice that should be reprehensible to any fan.

These are the reasons we are seeing a larger number of Coachella tix being sold now.
Make no mistake, in a few months after the last tickets are gone and when the demand is even higher you will begin to see tons of tickets for Burning man being sold. Either by brokers or worse yet, by random people that just bought tickets with the intention to maybe go but probably to just sell their tickets for a profit.

Burning Man really screwed this one up.
I am a 13 time Burner with nothing but love for Black rock. I have been a main member of 3 different large theme camps over the years and built and brought two different art cars to the playa.
This year I will not be attending. I will be laying on a Caribbean beach. I hope that I am wrong, but my sense it that this year the playa will be filled with party tourists. Large theme camps and art projects simply cannot build, organize and function with only half its members. Burning man 2012 will for sure be a city with less art, less music and less soul than years past.
I have never been one of those that said "Burning Man was better when." In fact, I have always been one to defend the playa's evolution. However, I am sad to say that this ticket fiasco has changed my opinion.

Looking forward to 2013
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby jkisha » Fri Feb 17, 2012 9:14 am

trilobyte wrote:You can either believe that pro and amateur scalpers have all independently chosen to treat Burning Man differently than any other 'hot ticket' event, or that the ticketing system has been fairly successful in blocking professional scalpers and their proxy networks. Based on the evidence I've seen, I believe it's the latter. We'll see how it plays out.

Based on the reality of actually watching this all play out so far, id say you have no basis for your optimism. But it's a moot issue for me, as I don't think scalpers could make the situation any worse no matter how many tickets they have. It's quite possible they could even make it better.
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby Ruleryak » Fri Feb 17, 2012 11:02 am

jkisha wrote:
trilobyte wrote:You can either believe that pro and amateur scalpers have all independently chosen to treat Burning Man differently than any other 'hot ticket' event, or that the ticketing system has been fairly successful in blocking professional scalpers and their proxy networks. Based on the evidence I've seen, I believe it's the latter. We'll see how it plays out.

Based on the reality of actually watching this all play out so far, id say you have no basis for your optimism. But it's a moot issue for me, as I don't think scalpers could make the situation any worse no matter how many tickets they have. It's quite possible they could even make it better.


Overall it's really hard to see where Trilo keeps getting his optimism from, but I have to admit it's a bit contagious. The low sales through stubhub does at least indicate that the possibility exists that the anti-scalping measures in the lottery were mostly effective. As for everyone comparing Burning Man to other festivals as far as ticketing and scalping goes - it's beyond apples and oranges. Coachella, the crowd it attracts, and the potential for scalping there is in no way even similar to Burning Man and I'm sure scalpers know that. They have to have different strategies for an event that sells tickets in stages over months and has so much up-in-the-air speculation going around as to what's happening.

What it comes down to at the moment is that no one actually knows what is going to happen - no one. I doubt even the LLC has a good idea of how this will play out. The announcement that theme camps will get the remaining tickets probably had the effect of delaying larger releases of scalped tickets as the theme camp founders/members are going to be more driven to get tickets early on than individuals or small groups. Now that many of them will be getting tickets I'm sure scalpers will wait a bit longer to put their tickets up for sale. Whether it's "panic" or not - there will be points later on when tickets will be more valuable than they are right now, but as Trilo says - we'll all just need to see how it plays out.

The LLC seems to finally be taking the idea of non transferable tickets for 2013 seriously. Whether that means they'll also drop the lottery and go back to first come first serve we just don't know (but can hope!). They still bring up the incredibly tired excuse of needing to think about people that buy for others or gift tickets, or sell last minute - but honestly compared to this year I think those issues are tiny and can be figured out with good logistics if they don't just consult InTicketing (and hopefully drop them altogether - they do not know what they're doing). It's been a belief of the LLC that a substantial number of tickets change hands for free or at face value and that associating names could ruin that process - but if so many aspects of getting to Burning Man are changing then I think the community can deal with dropping the idea of buying spare tickets just to have or to gift down the road. Here's hoping next year we see an end to tiers (the model is dead and the reasoning behind it no longer applies), non-transferable tickets, and an end to the lottery. No secondary open sale needed - just put 50,000 tickets on sale in Jan and if folks can't save up between now and then too bad for them. Sure there'd be some bitching and whining, but compared to this year it can only get better.
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby mshaman » Fri Feb 17, 2012 11:43 am

danibel wrote:The lack of jump in tickets has me believing that the real ticket holders are hoarders. Really. People who put in for 2 but only needed one. It gives me high hope today (I feel very differently today than I did yesterday), that STEP might actually work, and most of my campmates and friends will get tickets before the burn.

FACE VALUE OR FUCK OFF.


Danibel, I've looked in on hundreds of people concerning this, literally hundreds, and found only 1 hoarder that had 3 extras. Everyone else who got more than the one they needed immediately got it to a friend who was short, and we're STILL seeing ticketed rates of about 30% in our camps. I'm going with increased demand due to the relentless viral promotion of the event via social networks. It's all conjecture now. We'll see at the burn. At least, the 30% of us who got tickets will see at the burn...
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Re: Why Are So Few Tickets Being Scalped

Postby hotmess » Fri Feb 17, 2012 1:02 pm

danibel wrote:The lack of jump in tickets has me believing that the real ticket holders are hoarders. Really. People who put in for 2 but only needed one. It gives me high hope today (I feel very differently today than I did yesterday), that STEP might actually work, and most of my campmates and friends will get tickets before the burn.

FACE VALUE OR FUCK OFF.


I like your optimistic way of looking at the situation. I am going to follow your belief that STEP just might work. Fingers crossed!!!!
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