What are the odds of the lottery? does anyone have a guess?

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What are the odds of the lottery? does anyone have a guess?

Postby Xain » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:13 am

JRS said that approximately 1.7 (avg) tickets were requested per person in the lottery.

if there are 40,000 tickets to be awarded then 68,000 people, er entrants is the rough guess (1.7 x 40,000)

so what are the odds of:

winning 1 ticket if you registered for 1 (@240) ticket odds =

winning 1 ticket if you registered for 1 (@320) ticket odds =

winning 1 ticket if you registered for 1 (@390) ticket odds =


winning 1 ticket if you registered for 2 (@240) tickets odds =

winning 1 ticket if you registered for 2 (@320) tickets odds =

winning 1 ticket if you registered for 2 (@390) tickets odds =


winning 2 tickets if you registered for 2 (@240) tickets odds =

winning 2 tickets if you registered for 2 (@320) tickets odds =

winning 2 tickets if you registered for 2 (@390) tickets odds =


and I'm not clear on whether or not you can win one ticket at one tier and one at another tier if you registered for two.
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Re: What are the odds of the lottery? does anyone have a gue

Postby delle » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:18 am

Blech. Math.

No thanks!!!
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Re: What are the odds of the lottery? does anyone have a gue

Postby ygmir » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:21 am

YGMIR

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Re: What are the odds of the lottery? does anyone have a gue

Postby The CO » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:37 am

The odds for any ticket start at 1:40,000 and go up from there!

But seriously, we don't know the numbers, so we can't figure out probability.

On that note...

"There are an unexpectedly high number of registrants, and they are requesting 1.7 tickets/person on average."

This statement is causing a great deal of confusion. A breakdown based on their phrasing: We know that at least 40,000 tickets were requested, as that is the amount available in the lottery.

1-Now, if each ticket request is considered to have been made by an individual, then the magic 1.7 means 68,000 ticket entries were made.
(simplified/disproven: does not account for 1 card buying more than one ticket, and the average would be 1.0 tickets per person if they were all bought individually)
1A-Think of it as exactly 40,000 want tickets, and hedged their bet with friends help/cards, creating demand for 68,000 at the 1.7 average.

2-Some folks have mistaken 1.7 to be a ratio of buyers:tickets, which would mean that 280,000 ticket entries were made.
(Seems unlikely, but not impossible)

Now, the phrasing 'they are requesting 1.7 tickets/person on average' is what strikes my fancy. Based on that statement....

3-25,000 people register for the lottery, some requesting a single ticket, some requesting 2. This could lead to:
-Ticket entries totaling 42,500 (more than tix available during main sale)
-The magic number of 1.7 ticket requests per person (25,000x1.7=42500)
-This is scaleable up or down. 60,000 ticket requests of 1-2 each comes out to 102,000 ticket requests total, still at an average of 1.7/person.

Since we don't know the numbers, just have to wait for the lotto.
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Re: What are the odds of the lottery? does anyone have a gue

Postby trilobyte » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:50 am

No comment.
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Re: What are the odds of the lottery? does anyone have a gue

Postby junglesmacks » Mon Jan 30, 2012 11:11 am

Potatoes.
Savannah wrote:It sounds freaky & wrong, so you need to do it.
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Re: What are the odds of the lottery? does anyone have a gue

Postby tinydancr » Mon Jan 30, 2012 11:13 am

ygmir wrote:let me help

+1
shut up and dance.
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Re: What are the odds of the lottery? does anyone have a gue

Postby Sham » Mon Jan 30, 2012 11:14 am

Maybe, which means: maybe yes, maybe no!

The best you can do now is go to your spiritual house of worship, and pray. If you're an atheist, you may be fucked.
I hope my uplifting post helps.
Have a nice day! :D
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Re: What are the odds of the lottery? does anyone have a gue

Postby BeachBum » Mon Jan 30, 2012 3:34 pm

Hi Xain,

It doesn't matter whether people put in for one or two tickets, the numbers are the same.

Based on results from our relatively small camp and friends, and news that many people that are new, perhaps friends and family also put in for tickets, as well as a few casual scalpers who aren't weeded out:

Personal estimate is 40K ticket requests by 22K people for $240, 35K ticket requests by 20K people for $320, 25K ticket requests by 17K people for $390.

I truly hope the scalpers and casual scalpers are very, very aggressively weeded out! After some very basic math:

If request $240 tickets: 10% chance of $240, 90% chance of no tickets
If request $320 tickets: 10% chance of $240, 25% chance of $320 tickets, 65% chance of no tickets
If request $390 tickets: 10% chance of $240, 25% chance of $320, 60% chance of $390 tickets, 5% chance of no tickets

The good news is that many of the ones requesting $240 tickets, which includes a lot of the friends, family, and casual scalpers, won't apply for follow on sales or lotteries, so the number of people who need tickets at that point should relatively match the tickets available. I hope the the follow on sales are just non-transferable rights to a ticket to be held at will-call.

Whatever, we'll find out within a couple days by the firestorm that may erupt on these boards and people putting out actual sampled numbers from their campmates and friends. By Thursday facts about this will talk, bullcrap will walk, and some people should apologize for previous statements ;-)

What are your guesses?
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