The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Want to talk about tickets? You've come to the right place

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby lemur » Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:44 am

BeachBum wrote:Lemur wrote:
> having names on tickets doesnt fix the problem of scarcity
> the only issue names on tickets really deals with, as i see it, is scalping.. (scalping is legal in nevada)

Having names on tickets does reduce the problem of scarcity on the initial ticket sales because people can't over-order tickets. It reduces the initial demand for tickets so that people who want to plan ahead and really care deeply about attending Burning Man are at an advantage to people who don't. The people who care enough to plan camps, art, art cars, and other contributions have a much greater chances of knowing that they can make it to the playa, and they are some of the people who are most PO'ed at the system this year. This would help. They are the ones who help make this event be so incredible through their goodwill, and should be favored in any ticket distribution system.

Beach Bum


I think you may be missing my point when i am saying that having names on tickets doesnt fix the problem of scarcity.

Whether we slow down the initial demand for tickets and draw it out longer or not we still have more people who want to attend the event than there are tickets.. The only issue slowing down initial demand does is ensure that more people know they will have a ticket from the LLC itself without having to resort to a secondary market that is eager to get tickets into the hands of participants (whether through nefarious means or not).

in essence, as you mention when you say that there are "greater chances of knowing they can make it", all having names on tickets does is give more people a chance at peace of mind earlier in the year.

I think we can safely assume all hoarders and scalpers want to put those tickets into a participants hand.

in the end we still have more people that want to attend than there are tickets, whether the process gets those tickets in the hands of participants through the LLC or through the secondary market.. they still get into the hands of participants..


so, again.. this begs the question...... aside from ensuring more people have peace of mind that they will get a ticket from the LLC itself instead of the secondary market (which is eager to put tickets in hands of participants) ...what is the benefit of putting names on tickets and causing all of the logistical challenges that result ?


(as an aside i dont support any ticket sales system that favors anyone in the ticket sale process, no matter their previous contributions to the event..EDIT: if you havnt earned a ticket through volunteering/working with the LLC your chances at a ticket sale should be just the same as anyone else)
Don't link to anything here!
User avatar
lemur
 
Posts: 3599
Joined: Fri Feb 13, 2009 3:07 pm
Location: Madagascar
Camp Name: Plug N Play Camp

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby alt12 » Mon Jan 30, 2012 1:02 am

lemur wrote:having names on tickets doesnt fix the problem of scarcity.


the issue of scarcity is not big enough to justify the lottery system. There is a moderate degree of scarcity (i.e. 5-10% more people that want to go than had tickets, not 100% more.... We're not dealing with 200,000 people want to go to BM. We went over our allotment mildly. This is the first year that's happened. lets not get hysterical about the scarcity factor when it is not as big as the perception of scarcity that was created with the lottery system.

And you know what a great solution to scarcity is? First-come, first-serve. Rather than random and chaotic lottery process, those that know they want to go and are obviously highly invested in going and are preparing early will get the tickets. Those that wait, procrastinate, are undecided, are virgins who decide late in the year, etc. will have a harder time getting tickets. Problem solved. Basically, there was no problem (aside from server crashes due to the mad rush for Tier-1 which would had been easily solved by eliminating tiers years ago).

There is a tremendous amount of over thinking for a system that really wasn't all that broken. Server crashes were the biggest problem. Seems a lot more preferable than the current situation. Go back to first-come first serve, and eliminate tiers. I know I'm repeating what others have said but I'm going to say it anyway...
User avatar
alt12
 
Posts: 441
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 11:58 pm
Location: Thailand
Burning Since: 2003

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby karma_cat » Mon Jan 30, 2012 1:03 am

lemur wrote:
BeachBum wrote:Lemur wrote:
> having names on tickets doesnt fix the problem of scarcity
> the only issue names on tickets really deals with, as i see it, is scalping.. (scalping is legal in nevada)

Having names on tickets does reduce the problem of scarcity on the initial ticket sales because people can't over-order tickets. It reduces the initial demand for tickets so that people who want to plan ahead and really care deeply about attending Burning Man are at an advantage to people who don't. The people who care enough to plan camps, art, art cars, and other contributions have a much greater chances of knowing that they can make it to the playa, and they are some of the people who are most PO'ed at the system this year. This would help. They are the ones who help make this event be so incredible through their goodwill, and should be favored in any ticket distribution system.

Beach Bum


I think you may be missing my point when i am saying that having names on tickets doesnt fix the problem of scarcity.

Whether we slow down the initial demand for tickets and draw it out longer or not we still have more people who want to attend the event than there are tickets.. The only issue slowing down initial demand does is ensure that more people know they will have a ticket from the LLC itself without having to resort to a secondary market that is eager to get tickets into the hands of participants (whether through nefarious means or not).

in essence, as you mention when you say that there are "greater chances of knowing they can make it", all having names on tickets does is give more people a chance at peace of mind earlier in the year.

I think we can safely assume all hoarders and scalpers want to put those tickets into a participants hand.

in the end we still have more people that want to attend than there are tickets, whether the process gets those tickets in the hands of participants through the LLC or through the secondary market.. they still get into the hands of participants..


so, again.. this begs the question...... aside from ensuring more people have peace of mind that they will get a ticket from the LLC itself instead of the secondary market (which is eager to put tickets in hands of participants) ...what is the benefit of putting names on tickets and causing all of the logistical challenges that result ?


(as an aside i dont support any ticket sales system that favors anyone in the ticket sale process, no matter their previous contributions to the event..EDIT: if you havnt earned a ticket through volunteering/working with the LLC your chances at a ticket sale should be just the same as anyone else)


I'm confused ... it seems like we're trying to solve a problem for a moving target. I've seen people repeatedly say that the lottery was set up to prevent scalpers ... even though the WAY it is set up creates an illusion of MUCH greater scarcity than actually exists. When we propose a solution to the scarcity illusion created by the lottery people say scalpers are REAL the problem ... when we propose solutions to scalpers they say scarcity is the REAL problem.

I think they are BOTH problems and just because someone's idea doesn't address 1/2 of the problem ... that doesn't make it a bad idea. So please lets stop with the "But XXX is the real problem" and address the remarks that people have made directly instead of shifting the conversation to the things people AREN'T talking about.

P.S.: I agree with the very last part of what lemur said regarding equal access to tickets.
karma_cat
 
Posts: 53
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2012 1:24 pm

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby lemur » Mon Jan 30, 2012 1:12 am

the lottery serves to deal with BOTH of those problems, scalping and scarcity.



it deals with scarcity by assuring that the tickets are rationed out in a random fasion and that no one person has advantage over the others


it deals with scalpers by not fulfilling ticket orders until months after the purchase, as well as by only fulfilling orders randomly and the 'scrubbing' of the applicant list of known scalpers/schemers



scalping didnt create the problem of scarcity..... scarcity is caused by the BLM limit on population at the burning man event..

the lottery itself (random selections) deals with the issue of fairly distributing tickets in an environment where more people want to go than there are tickets.. in addendum to that, the random selection serves to stifle organized scalping bots..

whether a random lottery existed or not the method of fulfilling tickets months after purchasing should serve to deter most organized scalping operations


scarcity is NOT an illusion, if you read the BLM agreements that the burning man LLC has agreed to we should have sold out in previous years as well as 2011.. we only had a dip in 2008 because of the shitty economy.. but the population exceeded (or came close to) rising above the 6% increase in population per year allowed by the usage permit.. and therefore we should have sold out in at least 1 year previous to 2011.. we have been hitting up hard against the population cap (or the 6% increase in population year-to-year) for quite a few years now.. scarcity does exist because our population limit has reached its max alloweable by the BLM agreements and usage permits for the event.
Don't link to anything here!
User avatar
lemur
 
Posts: 3599
Joined: Fri Feb 13, 2009 3:07 pm
Location: Madagascar
Camp Name: Plug N Play Camp

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby BeachBum » Mon Jan 30, 2012 1:36 am

Please, Lemur, can we have this one thread on this bulletin board where we can have a positive discussion on ideas, without the same negativity and same immediate rejections being repeated over and over?
And please don't bold selected text on my posts if you respond to them, please leave them as they are.

We fundamentally disagree. I believe that the ticket system, while keeping equal access, should allow people who really care about this event and who voluntarily contribute art, art cars, and provide for amazing experiences for others through their camps to have a better chance of obtaining tickets than those that don't. You don't believe that. I get that.

Both 5280MeV's idea of having the higher price ticket lottery before the lower priced one(s) and a quick name-ticket match are potential solutions to the issue, which you do not believe is an issue, of so many contributing people being so unhappy about how the tickets are being distributed this year. I really think 5280MeV's idea can gain some traction.

Positivity, and a positive approach to working together are wonderful things.

Beach Bum
BeachBum
 
Posts: 89
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2011 6:23 pm

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby karma_cat » Mon Jan 30, 2012 1:55 am

I agree with Beach Bum ... isn't the whole point of this thread to avoid negativity?

And yes ... there aren't enough tickets for everyone. But the design of the tiered lottery made the scarcity problem MUCH MUCH worse. Don't believe me ... check out the smoothly run pre-sale lottery. Only difference? No tiers.
karma_cat
 
Posts: 53
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2012 1:24 pm

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby lemur » Mon Jan 30, 2012 2:03 am

Scarcity... this is what the issue is:

at one point burning man was working under a "Five-Year Operating Plan", essentially a five year permit to run the event from 2006 to 2010.. in this permit it explained the population limits and growth limits.. ....Here is a file showing the 'special recreation permit stipulations' for this 2006-2010 term

http://www.blm.gov/pgdata/etc/medialib/ ... 202006.pdf

Black Rock City LLC (BRC) is required to manage its advance ticket sales in a manner to
keep the maximum population of the event from increasing more than 6% above the highest population recorded in a previous year. If during the event, it appears that on-site ticket sales are likely to result in a peak population that exceeds the 6% increase, BRC will promptly notify BLM of the projected event population and provide detailed contingency plans to handle the additional participants.

2. These stipulations incorporate procedures identified in the Burning Man Operating Plan. If
there is a conflict between the Operating Plan and the stipulations listed below and attached to the permit, the stipulations shall control.


you can read the Operating Plan they refer to here: http://www.blm.gov/pgdata/etc/medialib/ ... s_Plan.pdf

So with that in mind we go to the population figures (only reference i have for those is WIKIPEDIA)...

in 2007 it likely should have sold out.. the BLM allowed a 6% population increase per year (without special contingency plans) and from 2006 (38,989) to 2007 (47,366) population growth was higher than 15%

in 2008 the BLM had expected 12% growth from the 2006 numbers, at maximum.. or 43,667 people.. But we blew the doors off that 6% per year growth rate in 2007.. If we go by the population increase from 2007 (47,366) to 2008 (49,599) we end up with about a 5% increase.. and we get dangerously close to the 50,000 person average maximum limit described in the 2006-2010 operating plan. They DID NOT Sell tickets at the gate in 2008.

BRC/LLC is anticipating between 30,000 and 40,000 participants for the next two years. However, it is possible that population could go over 40,000 sometime in the next five years. BRC/LLC is fully prepared to handle a maximum of 50,000 participants if necessary.


2009 was a big down year.. We went from 2008 (49,599) down to 2009s (43,435) over 10% decrease in population they lucked out and they were able to sell tickets at the gate

in 2010 we were over the 50,000 mark for total attendance.. attendance soared from 2009 (43,435) to 2010 (51,454), over a 15% increase from the previous year.. It probably shoulda sold out in 2010.

in 2011 the event sold out well before the gates opened

What a 'sell out' in burning man parlance means is butting up against these limits imposed by the BLM permits.. there arent 'seats' at burning man.. They are obligated to keep within these limits or to have contingencies when exceeding them..
Don't link to anything here!
User avatar
lemur
 
Posts: 3599
Joined: Fri Feb 13, 2009 3:07 pm
Location: Madagascar
Camp Name: Plug N Play Camp

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby lemur » Mon Jan 30, 2012 2:13 am

BeachBum wrote:Please, Lemur, can we have this one thread on this bulletin board where we can have a positive discussion on ideas, without the same negativity and same immediate rejections being repeated over and over?
And please don't bold selected text on my posts if you respond to them, please leave them as they are.

We fundamentally disagree. I believe that the ticket system, while keeping equal access, should allow people who really care about this event and who voluntarily contribute art, art cars, and provide for amazing experiences for others through their camps to have a better chance of obtaining tickets than those that don't. You don't believe that. I get that.

Both 5280MeV's idea of having the higher price ticket lottery before the lower priced one(s) and a quick name-ticket match are potential solutions to the issue, which you do not believe is an issue, of so many contributing people being so unhappy about how the tickets are being distributed this year. I really think 5280MeV's idea can gain some traction.

Positivity, and a positive approach to working together are wonderful things.

Beach Bum


karma_cat wrote:I agree with Beach Bum ... isn't the whole point of this thread to avoid negativity?

And yes ... there aren't enough tickets for everyone. But the design of the tiered lottery made the scarcity problem MUCH MUCH worse. Don't believe me ... check out the smoothly run pre-sale lottery. Only difference? No tiers.



I fail to see where I was negative or un-civil in any way in any of my postings on this thread.

Suggesting (politely) that a point might have been missed and restating it is not negativity.. I don't see following up to a reply where things I said were mentioned as in any way negative either.

It isnt a "no disagreement" thread.
Don't link to anything here!
User avatar
lemur
 
Posts: 3599
Joined: Fri Feb 13, 2009 3:07 pm
Location: Madagascar
Camp Name: Plug N Play Camp

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby LegendZero » Mon Jan 30, 2012 2:16 am

And we all recognize the scarcity problem. The point of this topic and the many other comments like it is to facilitate discussion on the best way to distribute that scarce resource most fairly with the greatest benefit to the community. Arguing the lottery IS the best before seeing the results, especially when those results so far have been less than encouraging, is no different than arguing it failed. This thread was specifically about alternatives Ideas to the lottery whether it was good or not is moot and the scarcity problem is something everyone is aware of.
LegendZero
 
Posts: 47
Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2012 11:21 pm

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby pink » Mon Jan 30, 2012 2:31 am

To me it isn't that the lottery is or isn't best at this point...it's what we have. No amount of discussion is going to change that. It is an experiment, and the results will not be known, nor all unanticipated problems (or sucesses) until the whole thing plays out.

I think the reason the pre-sale went so easily is not just that there was only one tier, but that it was the highest priced ticket of all. So, at least, I thought, hmmmm, does the peace of mind outweigh the difference of price? If the difference was ONLY between $390 or $420, I would likely have gone for the peace of mind and done pre-sale. I've done it before. However, although there is a scarcity of tickets themselves, there is definitely a scarcity of $240 & $320 tickets. I'm in my first year of full self-employment (as in lost my job, so I need to beef up and live off my side biz), so the possibility of a less expensive ticket was definitely there. Still is.

I think single price tickets are the answer, if nothing else to address the lower tier scarcity. Maybe tier the low income tickets and up the quantity, requireing applications and keeping them nontransferable. Of course, the low income program is labor intensive, but this might be the way to go to avoid frenzy.
I'm not a slut, I'm good time floozy!
pink
 
Posts: 838
Joined: Wed Jul 19, 2006 7:30 am
Location: sacramento
Burning Since: 2005
Camp Name: Retrofrolic

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby lemur » Mon Jan 30, 2012 2:38 am

LegendZero wrote:And we all recognize the scarcity problem. The point of this topic and the many other comments like it is to facilitate discussion on the best way to distribute that scarce resource most fairly with the greatest benefit to the community. Arguing the lottery IS the best before seeing the results, especially when those results so far have been less than encouraging, is no different than arguing it failed. This thread was specifically about alternatives Ideas to the lottery whether it was good or not is moot and the scarcity problem is something everyone is aware of.


I don't believe that anything I have posted is suggesting that the lottery is the best or that I even support it. Where I mention the lottery it is to describe what it does and what it is .. (you can find out this stuff in the Tickets FAQ).

I have argued against names on tickets.. I have not made any arguments FOR the lottery.
Don't link to anything here!
User avatar
lemur
 
Posts: 3599
Joined: Fri Feb 13, 2009 3:07 pm
Location: Madagascar
Camp Name: Plug N Play Camp

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby lemur » Mon Jan 30, 2012 2:43 am

lemur wrote:as names on tickets wont truly address the issue of scarcity we would still have to have a lottery..



I should have said this instead:

as names on tickets wont truly address the issue of scarcity THE BURNING MAN LLC WOULD still have to have a lottery.. (as per their reasonings in the Ticket FAQ)
Don't link to anything here!
User avatar
lemur
 
Posts: 3599
Joined: Fri Feb 13, 2009 3:07 pm
Location: Madagascar
Camp Name: Plug N Play Camp

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby Sham » Mon Jan 30, 2012 2:59 am

The scarcity of tickets could be fixed if the population were kept in check. As mentioned, banning RV's will alienate a large segment of ticket buyers. Banning nudity will keep both the naked people and the people who want to see naked people, off the playa. Raise prices to keep the less affluent home. Just how high the prices could be raised, will take a few years to test exactly where the pain threshold is.
With the rich RV folks, and the poorer artsy types not attending, there will be plenty of tickets available, and a lottery would not be needed.
User avatar
Sham
Moderator
 
Posts: 6266
Joined: Thu Oct 23, 2008 2:10 am
Location: The hidden mythical place.....

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby karma_cat » Mon Jan 30, 2012 3:19 am

Shambala wrote:The scarcity of tickets could be fixed if the population were kept in check. As mentioned, banning RV's will alienate a large segment of ticket buyers. Banning nudity will keep both the naked people and the people who want to see naked people, off the playa. Raise prices to keep the less affluent home. Just how high the prices could be raised, will take a few years to test exactly where the pain threshold is.
With the rich RV folks, and the poorer artsy types not attending, there will be plenty of tickets available, and a lottery would not be needed.


First they came for the shirt-cockers ... and I said nothing ...
karma_cat
 
Posts: 53
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2012 1:24 pm

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby lemur » Mon Jan 30, 2012 3:34 am

pink wrote:To me it isn't that the lottery is or isn't best at this point...it's what we have. No amount of discussion is going to change that..


very salient point

and i think youre right.. at this point we are likely looking towards 2013 when relating to changes/updates/revamps of the ticketing system.. i very much doubt we will see any changes in the system for 2012..

Perhaps the only way the community opinion in relation to ticket issues will do any substantive good is as part of the annual post-burn feedback that the LLC will ask for after the 2012 burning man event.

We can come up with new ideas, new ways to do it, solutions, find fault in places,.etc.. but I think outside of clearing up misconceptions.. all we will be doing here in the ticket threads is spinning our wheels when it comes to the 2012 event.
Don't link to anything here!
User avatar
lemur
 
Posts: 3599
Joined: Fri Feb 13, 2009 3:07 pm
Location: Madagascar
Camp Name: Plug N Play Camp

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby axel » Mon Jan 30, 2012 3:40 am

Sign up for BM unique IDs at center camp. BM unique ID gets u preferred status in a lottery for 1 ticket.

Current system assumes everyone is a potential scalper. Reward participants and allow us to prove our innocence. Like a preferred customs clearance program.
axel
 
Posts: 17
Joined: Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:15 am

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby AntiM » Mon Jan 30, 2012 6:54 am

axel wrote:Sign up for BM unique IDs at center camp. BM unique ID gets u preferred status in a lottery for 1 ticket.

Current system assumes everyone is a potential scalper. Reward participants and allow us to prove our innocence. Like a preferred customs clearance program.



It is easy to like this model as a burner. However, I do oppose it, as many burgins have much to contribute, and not every veteran is a sterling example of what a burner should be. We were all burgins at some point; MyLarry and I knew no one our first burn, nor had we any idea about regional burns or burner events (there weren't nearly as many in 2001).

Equal access for all.
These are not my fuckos.
User avatar
AntiM
Moderator
 
Posts: 16386
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2004 6:23 am
Location: Top O' the World, Ma!
Burning Since: 2001
Camp Name: Anti M's Home for Wayward Art

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby theCryptofishist » Mon Jan 30, 2012 9:53 am

lemur wrote:
pink wrote:To me it isn't that the lottery is or isn't best at this point...it's what we have. No amount of discussion is going to change that..


very salient point

Agreed. For me one of the frustrations that this sub-forum brings me is that many people haven't really wrapped their heads around this.
Simon's real sig line?

Embrace the Sock

Winners never quilt, quilters never win...
User avatar
theCryptofishist
 
Posts: 37405
Joined: Mon Feb 23, 2004 10:28 am
Location: In Exile
Burning Since: 2017

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby theCryptofishist » Mon Jan 30, 2012 9:53 am

AntiM wrote:
axel wrote:Sign up for BM unique IDs at center camp. BM unique ID gets u preferred status in a lottery for 1 ticket.

Current system assumes everyone is a potential scalper. Reward participants and allow us to prove our innocence. Like a preferred customs clearance program.



It is easy to like this model as a burner. However, I do oppose it, as many burgins have much to contribute, and not every veteran is a sterling example of what a burner should be. We were all burgins at some point; MyLarry and I knew no one our first burn, nor had we any idea about regional burns or burner events (there weren't nearly as many in 2001).

Equal access for all.

Yes
Simon's real sig line?

Embrace the Sock

Winners never quilt, quilters never win...
User avatar
theCryptofishist
 
Posts: 37405
Joined: Mon Feb 23, 2004 10:28 am
Location: In Exile
Burning Since: 2017

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby ygmir » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:06 am

theCryptofishist wrote:
AntiM wrote:
axel wrote:Sign up for BM unique IDs at center camp. BM unique ID gets u preferred status in a lottery for 1 ticket.

Current system assumes everyone is a potential scalper. Reward participants and allow us to prove our innocence. Like a preferred customs clearance program.



It is easy to like this model as a burner. However, I do oppose it, as many burgins have much to contribute, and not every veteran is a sterling example of what a burner should be. We were all burgins at some point; MyLarry and I knew no one our first burn, nor had we any idea about regional burns or burner events (there weren't nearly as many in 2001).

Equal access for all.

Yes

agreed. well said AntiM.
YGMIR

Unabashed Nordic
Pagan
User avatar
ygmir
 
Posts: 25979
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2007 8:36 pm
Location: nevada county
Burning Since: 2017
Camp Name: qqqq

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby The CO » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:22 am

Here's my list of factors everyone should understand before posting the next "brilliant solution":

1-The population is not going to increase at a record pace just because people want a ticket. It's set by BLM.

2-Sometimes, popular events sell out. This is simply how it works. That means not everyone will get a ticket. Life sucks, get a helmet*.

3-This is an event with over 50,000 people attending, currently going into its 26th year. The management of the event might know a thing or two about how to sustain the event from year to year. I recommend that anyone with radical new solutions try running their own event for 3 years in a row. It will give some perspective as to how much there is to organize, and how many people you can upset with the smallest of changes.

4-Please, everyone, cross-check your idea with the 10 principals. They are not the bible or anything, but if an idea starts from a concept that directly contravenes the principals of the event/org, i.e. 'we should ban _______' vs. radical inclusion, then don't be surprised if your idea catches a lot of flak.

*I recommend a good climbing helmet. Well ventilated, clips for headlamps, can be decorated in a number of ways.
M*A*S*H 4207th: An army of fun.
I don't care what the borg says: feather-wearers will NOT be served in Rosie's Bar.
Yes, I am the arbiter of doing it right or wrong. Guess which one you are!
User avatar
The CO
 
Posts: 1557
Joined: Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:56 am
Location: I-CORPS, M*A*S*H HQ
Burning Since: 1996
Camp Name: M*A*S*H 4207th/404: Error

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby vapor » Mon Jan 30, 2012 11:42 am

I would suggest not mailing tickets until early August and keep all ticket sales within a STEP program of some sort. As much as we all like to have our tickets in hand early I don't think there's an absolute need. I believe this would reduce most chances of scalping or counterfeiting while still allowing enough time for personal exchanges.
User avatar
vapor
 
Posts: 52
Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2008 1:19 pm
Location: Los Angeles
Burning Since: 1996
Camp Name: Opulent Temple

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby Nipple » Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:19 pm

I've seen the suggestion a couple times that future lottery draws should happen in multiple drawings with higher priced tickets drawn sooner, and lower priced tickets later.

To me, that argument falls into the same camp with registering for IDs in center camp, for preference.

I could support multiple auctions with multiple tiers. If it's higher prices first, then I feel it is a statement that bigger wallets get tickets first.

I don't have a full solution to offer for that though, to match tiers to means in an equitable fashion.
User avatar
Nipple
 
Posts: 1115
Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 9:36 pm
Location: Portland, OR
Burning Since: 2017

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby illy dilly » Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:26 pm

Shambala wrote:I have a very strong feeling that there will be a glut of tickets at some point in the near future. I think enough people will dismiss 2012 for the uncertainty of tickets, and 50,000+ tickets will be more than enough for everyone. This will cause prices to stay at face value, and leave scalpers with so many unsold tickets that they will probably be discounted just to unload them. Think this scenario through.

Shambala, I think you are on to something! These have been my feelings for some time now.
So much changes for so many people between January and August. I also feel that many people who are "really hoping to go" bought tickets just "to be safe" because "heck, I can sell it easily later"
Why don't ya stick your head in that hole and find out? ~piehole
Plan for the worst, expect the best. Make the most out of it under any conditions. If you cannot do that you will never enjoy yourself. ~CrispyDave
User avatar
illy dilly
 
Posts: 4798
Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2010 12:02 pm
Location: Denver, CO
Burning Since: 2009
Camp Name: Gnome Dome

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby Geezer Guy » Mon Jan 30, 2012 2:18 pm

So here is a idea from a first time poster. For next year I would like to support the idea of the Burning man LLC selling the higest price tier first, and the lowest priced tickets last. That would give those that can afford it the best chance of getting a ticket, and leave a few low priced ticket for those that really need them.

For this year I would like to come from the point of view of those relatives, friends, neighbors, of hoarders who have been scammed into buying tickets, they dont intend to use. Because as soon as I see this large charge on my credit card, I would call the hoarder and ask them to replace the cash now, and I will give them the ticket after it has been mailed to me.

I would venture to guess that meny of the credit card holders will be willing to sell off their ticket via the STEP program, to avoid interest charges. The Burning man LLC can help facilitate this process, by holding off selling their last ten thousend tickets until after the STEP program has been started.
Geezer Guy
 
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:20 pm

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby The CO » Mon Jan 30, 2012 3:12 pm

Geezer Guy wrote:...the idea of the Burning man LLC selling the higest price tier first, and the lowest priced tickets last. That would give those that can afford it the best chance of getting a ticket, and leave a few low priced ticket for those that really need them.


This idea has come up several times. There is a reason that no one does this. No one. No show/concert/event ever.

I'll leave it up to the individual to figure out why.

Non-negative. I'm just pointing out facts here.
M*A*S*H 4207th: An army of fun.
I don't care what the borg says: feather-wearers will NOT be served in Rosie's Bar.
Yes, I am the arbiter of doing it right or wrong. Guess which one you are!
User avatar
The CO
 
Posts: 1557
Joined: Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:56 am
Location: I-CORPS, M*A*S*H HQ
Burning Since: 1996
Camp Name: M*A*S*H 4207th/404: Error

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby A Jester » Mon Jan 30, 2012 3:27 pm

The CO wrote:
Geezer Guy wrote:...the idea of the Burning man LLC selling the higest price tier first, and the lowest priced tickets last. That would give those that can afford it the best chance of getting a ticket, and leave a few low priced ticket for those that really need them.


This idea has come up several times. There is a reason that no one does this. No one. No show/concert/event ever.

I'll leave it up to the individual to figure out why.

Non-negative. I'm just pointing out facts here.


I'm sorry if I'm dense, but it doesn't seem obvious to me.

Well, let me rephrase that: I assume that the rest of the world doesn't do that because they want to maximize their profit. There's no motivation to buy an expensive ticket if there's a cheaper ticket coming, unless the event is going to sell out. If you're a standard ticket seller, once you sell out of $400 tickets you would know there is more demand for $400 tickets and wouldn't bother reducing the price to $300 for the remaining tickets.

I don't think that logic necessarily applies to the Org. In fact, it would be kinda awesome proof that we are different if we did something that intentionally avoided potential profits the way this proposed system would.


BeachBum wrote:I really like karma_cat's reasoned and thought out approaches and her responses trying to improve on various ideas, on this thread and on other threads. And i like several other regular posters having positive comments on stuff, there are ideas out there which can help improve the distribution of tickets to people who really want to go to this event and make a contribution.

Lemur wrote:
> having names on tickets doesnt fix the problem of scarcity
> the only issue names on tickets really deals with, as i see it, is scalping.. (scalping is legal in nevada)

Having names on tickets does reduce the problem of scarcity on the initial ticket sales because people can't over-order tickets. It reduces the initial demand for tickets so that people who want to plan ahead and really care deeply about attending Burning Man are at an advantage to people who don't. The people who care enough to plan camps, art, art cars, and other contributions have a much greater chances of knowing that they can make it to the playa, and they are some of the people who are most PO'ed at the system this year. This would help. They are the ones who help make this event be so incredible through their goodwill, and should be favored in any ticket distribution system.

If one would like to gift tickets to others who didn't plan ahead, they could either ask them early or pray tickets are available later. Anyways, the system should be set up to favor people who plan ahead, of which the amazing contributors are included, over stuff like last minute gift tickets.

Positivity, and being willing to work together in a positive manner are wonderful attributes.

Beach Bum


I think I agree with Lemur's point: the only people who should be favored are the ones who actually volunteer for the Org. Theme camps are awesome, and important, but no particular theme camp is vital. I guess we'll have to see what happens this year, if there is a major drop in theme camp participation then I'll like your idea a lot more. If there isn't a major drop in theme camp participation then I probably won't think we need to give them extra benefits.

Besides, isn't hating on Techno a Burner sport?

Names on tickets won't slow people down if they are getting a will call ticket and it won't slow people down (much) if they have early entry. Is there a way to sell tickets just to the early entry crews?

I know this doesn't solve all the problems, I'm really just brainstorming here.


LegendZero wrote:
I ABSOLUTELY LOVE 5280MeV's IDEA OF HAVING A SECOND LOTTERY OF LOWER PRICED TICKETS AFTER A FIRST HIGHER PRICED ONE! This would expand upon the situation this year of the $420 lottery going well, and this one having many unhappy participants. I really believe that the tiered prices system should be eliminated to reduce the gaming of it, as apparently is being seriously considered for 2013, but this idea of having a second smaller lottery of lower priced tickets would "probably" allow those of us who are really serious about contributing to know that we can make it to the playa. If a system like this could be set up correctly, that is.


I too like the idea of tier lotterys highest to lowest with remaning tickets (if any) going to the next lottery.

This risk/reward for a scalper in the earlier lotteries go up and the people who want to pay top dollar to be there can. As discussed it also allows BMOrg to have money up front and early as needed. I think we almost had that this year with the presale to main lottery its just the main lottery has 3 different price groups dumped together and scalpers do have every reason to enter the lottery while they had little to enter the presale. the more tiers being awarded consecutively highest to lowest makes it hard for the scalpers to find the best time to make their money and makes it easier for dedicated burners AND theme camps. With theme camps the core people who need to be there can enter for those early high price high tier tickets and the rest can opt for lower tiers at a possibly lower chance of getting a ticket. Anyone entered in to a higher tier that didn't get a ticket could be automatically entered into the next tier and so on. To me the this seems like the best way to ward off scalpers by making them hit a moving target with no guarantees, to encourage burners who can afford the highest price to pay the highest price, and to give theme camps the best way to ensure the people they need there get there.


I like this idea, too. However, one issue I see with it is that by having multiple drawings, we give the scalpers a chance to test the system. Then, the tickets most vulnerable to scalping are sold last.

Just as a brainstorm, what if they had two lotteries, one for 60% of the tickets at a high price and then the other which included the low tier tickets.

If we leave enough of the tickets for the second drawing then we won't create as much demand for the first drawing.

Another (possibly stupid) idea is to have the tickets sold cheapest to most expensive. An effect of this is that we don't punish people who are willing to pay more (because we give them an opportunity to buy the cheap tickets first) and it makes it hard for scalpers to compete for the cheap tickets (everyone else will be there trying to buy them, too).


alt12 wrote:
lemur wrote:having names on tickets doesnt fix the problem of scarcity.


the issue of scarcity is not big enough to justify the lottery system. There is a moderate degree of scarcity (i.e. 5-10% more people that want to go than had tickets, not 100% more.... We're not dealing with 200,000 people want to go to BM. We went over our allotment mildly. This is the first year that's happened. lets not get hysterical about the scarcity factor when it is not as big as the perception of scarcity that was created with the lottery system.

And you know what a great solution to scarcity is? First-come, first-serve. Rather than random and chaotic lottery process, those that know they want to go and are obviously highly invested in going and are preparing early will get the tickets. Those that wait, procrastinate, are undecided, are virgins who decide late in the year, etc. will have a harder time getting tickets. Problem solved. Basically, there was no problem (aside from server crashes due to the mad rush for Tier-1 which would had been easily solved by eliminating tiers years ago).

There is a tremendous amount of over thinking for a system that really wasn't all that broken. Server crashes were the biggest problem. Seems a lot more preferable than the current situation. Go back to first-come first serve, and eliminate tiers. I know I'm repeating what others have said but I'm going to say it anyway...


We went over out BLM limit slightly, but I don't think that everyone who wanted a ticket got one. In addition, our population has historically grown faster than our limit (and at some point the BLM won't raise the limit any more). So, I think it's fair to assume that scarcity will become more of an issue each year.

I don't really disagree that the lottery created a bigger perception of scarcity than the actual scarcity itself.

I don't think I would like the idea of a first come first serve that was similar to our old system. I think that scalper bots would ruin it for the rest of us.


Keep in mind that the scarcity, or perception of it, may have motivated the exact same amount of people to buy the exact same amount of tickets under the old system. That would likely mean we'd be sold out by now, and have a lot of tickets in the hands of scalpers. Even if there was only a 30% chance of that happening, I'm glad the Org did SOMETHING to stop it.


karma_cat wrote:
Shambala wrote:The scarcity of tickets could be fixed if the population were kept in check. As mentioned, banning RV's will alienate a large segment of ticket buyers. Banning nudity will keep both the naked people and the people who want to see naked people, off the playa. Raise prices to keep the less affluent home. Just how high the prices could be raised, will take a few years to test exactly where the pain threshold is.
With the rich RV folks, and the poorer artsy types not attending, there will be plenty of tickets available, and a lottery would not be needed.


First they came for the shirt-cockers ... and I said nothing ...


This may be the best post ever.





If anyone is still reading: I think it's fair to ask someone to be more polite if they have offended you (and certainly it's preferable to escalation of a flame war). It's also fair to ask that people assume your good will, and that you don't intend to be rude.

I don't have anything specific to say to anyone, but it seems like the "be nice" point was coming up, and I thought I'd flesh out what I meant in the first post.
ZaphodBurner wrote:
The difference between buying a ticket from a scalper and prostituting yourself for one is, if you suck dick for a ticket and brag about it, burners will still respect you.
A Jester
 
Posts: 341
Joined: Wed May 25, 2011 1:28 pm

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby The CO » Mon Jan 30, 2012 3:37 pm

A Jester wrote:I'm sorry if I'm dense, but it doesn't seem obvious to me.

Well, let me rephrase that: I assume that the rest of the world doesn't do that because they want to maximize their profit. There's no motivation to buy an expensive ticket if there's a cheaper ticket coming, unless the event is going to sell out. If you're a standard ticket seller, once you sell out of $400 tickets you would know there is more demand for $400 tickets and wouldn't bother reducing the price to $300 for the remaining tickets.


Nope, you're not dense, you figured it out right off the bat.

A Jester wrote:Another (possibly stupid) idea is to have the tickets sold cheapest to most expensive. An effect of this is that we don't punish people who are willing to pay more (because we give them an opportunity to buy the cheap tickets first) and it makes it hard for scalpers to compete for the cheap tickets (everyone else will be there trying to buy them, too).


That's how they've been doing it until this year.
M*A*S*H 4207th: An army of fun.
I don't care what the borg says: feather-wearers will NOT be served in Rosie's Bar.
Yes, I am the arbiter of doing it right or wrong. Guess which one you are!
User avatar
The CO
 
Posts: 1557
Joined: Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:56 am
Location: I-CORPS, M*A*S*H HQ
Burning Since: 1996
Camp Name: M*A*S*H 4207th/404: Error

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby lemur » Mon Jan 30, 2012 3:39 pm

I think getting the BLM to raise the population cap is the best solution..

I think the best way to get this to happen is by splitting up the burning man camp as was done a long time ago..place all of the rave dance camps far away from the main camp.. in this case about 5+ miles away, or more, from the main camp..

we would use different playa entrances for each camp and the turn off closest to gerlach would have an EXTRA LARGE huge windy (or gigantic parking lot) gate road to make sure that the line never backs up to the pavement (which would in turn block people getting to the secondary rave camp)

in between the camps there would be a coned/fenced off strip of land bridging the two camps, with a shuttle bus to safely transport people from camp to camp.. (payment would be required to use the shuttle.. the payments being used to defray the extra logistics of having camps separated by such a long distance as well as extra fencing costs) ..mutant vehicles would be allowed to go up to 10 miles per hour on this causeway..

not only would this allow the BLM to increase our population it would stop us from having to listen to that horrible noise as well as keeping the people who want to "party" all night near other people who want to "party" all night..


problem solved!!!! no more lottery!!!


whaddya think?!!?!?
Don't link to anything here!
User avatar
lemur
 
Posts: 3599
Joined: Fri Feb 13, 2009 3:07 pm
Location: Madagascar
Camp Name: Plug N Play Camp

Re: The non-repeat, non-negative lottery feedback thread.

Postby A Jester » Mon Jan 30, 2012 4:07 pm

The CO wrote:
A Jester wrote:Another (possibly stupid) idea is to have the tickets sold cheapest to most expensive. An effect of this is that we don't punish people who are willing to pay more (because we give them an opportunity to buy the cheap tickets first) and it makes it hard for scalpers to compete for the cheap tickets (everyone else will be there trying to buy them, too).


That's how they've been doing it until this year.


LOL, I didn't even think about that.

I did mean that these would be lotteries, not open sales.
ZaphodBurner wrote:
The difference between buying a ticket from a scalper and prostituting yourself for one is, if you suck dick for a ticket and brag about it, burners will still respect you.
A Jester
 
Posts: 341
Joined: Wed May 25, 2011 1:28 pm

PreviousNext

Return to 2012 Tickets Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests