Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

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Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby Arcticcircle » Sat Jan 28, 2012 12:39 pm

For starters, the system encourages ticket hoarding, period. This is psych 101. And now that most people have overbought, we have turned what would have been regular purchasers into de-facto redistributers. Now that's a very very very great place to be for a lottery winner, when huge amounts of people are denied tickets in the main sale due to rampant hoarding. We've now randomly selected a small group of people to "reward" the rest of the BM community, and are hoping they'll be cool enough to sell at face value. Meanwhile, with only 10,000 tickets left during open sale, the demand is going to be MASSIVE upon the, um, "redistributors". That means that a lottery losers are going to start feeling desperate, and willing to pay over face value if they must, and I think we're going to see individual parties who would would never have dreamed of scalping, give into these falsely amped up market forces.

We all knew that some level of ticket scarcity would be a problem, but this has compounded it. And if I *were* the profiteering type, I'd be dancing jigs right now. Try to game the system as the BORG set it up, and then re-sell at the hyped market value when Main Sale ends. If I lost the lottery, I'd go score some face value tickets from burners or the "official resellers market" (and I've yet to meet anyone who planned to use that, by the way) and turn them over on CL or eBay.

The whole thing is such a shame. I do believe that most of us who want to go will get tickets, but I think a lot of us will have to pay the premium bc of the market forces that inevitably are going to affect the inflated number of aftermarket re-sales. But the worst part of this inane lottery system? If we weren't all thinking about tickets, worrying about tickets, wondering about tickets, waiting for tickets, stressing about tickets.... A LOT MORE OF US WOULD BE PLANNING ART.
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby trilobyte » Sat Jan 28, 2012 12:57 pm

All that was true the minute tickets sold out last July. Scarcity is the problem. If it was done via first come, first serve the boards would be filled with people screaming bloody murder about the event having completely sold out already.
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby fastsnail » Sat Jan 28, 2012 1:08 pm

I'd go score some face value tickets from burners or the "official resellers market" (and I've yet to meet anyone who planned to use that, by the way) and turn them over on CL or eBay.


So true, they will buy on STEP and resell on eBay, so the system is defeated.

A possible solution for 2012 would be to give just 1 ticket to people who asked for 2. More people happy?

For 2013, names on tickets would be great.
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby lemur » Sat Jan 28, 2012 1:46 pm

just because some people are assholes doesnt mean the system is defeated.
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby Arcticcircle » Sat Jan 28, 2012 2:18 pm

This system actually relies MORE on people simply *choosing* not to scalp, when they've purchased more tickets than they otherwise would have. The entire basis of this system is to put more tickets into fewer people's hands, and hope they do the right thing. LIsten, I believe that burners are an exceptional sort, overall. But I think last year proved that profits can be made, and this year, by dribbling out tickets in slow motion, I think the anxiety and need to move into the next phase (making art, getting ready) will prompt people to just buy at an inflated price to get it over with. Scalpers win. And encourages even more bad actors next year.

I say all of this stuff, not because I hate the BORG, think they're evil or want to blindly kvetch. I really care, I believe in this festival and I think the BORG, in this case, is going down a poor path. I hope they're paying attention to these threads, bc there have been some really great suggestions along the way, and I think it's important to voice concerns and criticism so they can source these ideas and make the best system possible. And lastly? I would LOVE to be wrong about all of my concerns. Please let me be wrong, as it seems that the lottery doubters such as myself are falling on deaf ears. May the lottery kick ass. But so far? Hoarding, stress, and my theme camp is too busy thinking about tickets to even give 2 seconds to our planning, whereas last year we were already having meetings, etc.

I disagree that we'd be in the same boat if they did a straight sale again this year, Lemur. Tickets took months to sell out last year... maybe they'd take a week this time around? The barrier to entry would have been for people to get their shit together in a timely manner. Not perfect... but egalitarian enough. I won't rehash all of the good suggestions that have been made that could tweak the tier system, etc, but I think that the BORG identified a real, but small problem... and I predict they've made it a big one.
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby unjonharley » Sat Jan 28, 2012 3:22 pm

So how could a person resell a ticket before mid summer.
I'm sure I would not give you money unless I see the ticket.. By mid summer I will have cooled to the idea of Burning Man..
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby Marscrumbs » Sat Jan 28, 2012 3:40 pm

So if you don't win the lotto which will be most of us, we have to wait till June to maybe buy a secondary ticket. How are we suppost to prepare?
That's barely time to send in your DMV/Art/Themcamp permits.
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby pink » Sat Jan 28, 2012 3:42 pm

A thought: since one of the ways of verifying a ticket is real is to get a copy of the confirmation email which has not only the price paid for the ticket, but also the name and address of the person who bought the ticket. So, if you are forced to buy a overpriced ticket due to no others being available, or come across one, I suggest a way to rat out the scalpers. And those who scalped this year are scrubbed from next Year's sale. That might tone down the temptation to scalp a bit. And since tix exchanged in the STEP program would have a new identifier, it would discourage the temptation to obtain Tix there to scalp.
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby BBadger » Sat Jan 28, 2012 3:49 pm

Marscrumbs wrote:So if you don't win the lotto which will be most of us, we have to wait till June to maybe buy a secondary ticket. How are we supposed to prepare?
That's barely time to send in your DMV/Art/Themcamp permits.


What prevents you from preparing whether you have a ticket or not? I've been preparing since while at Burning Man the previous year.
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby unjonharley » Sat Jan 28, 2012 3:52 pm

So Pink suggests I buy a printer copy of a conformation, From some one on the other side of the earth.. Ever hear of buying a pig in a poke?? I hand you this bag and take your money.. You find there is no pig in the poke about the time you see my tail lights
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby CornMan » Sat Jan 28, 2012 4:16 pm

BBadger wrote:
Marscrumbs wrote:So if you don't win the lotto which will be most of us, we have to wait till June to maybe buy a secondary ticket. How are we supposed to prepare?
That's barely time to send in your DMV/Art/Themcamp permits.


What prevents you from preparing whether you have a ticket or not? I've been preparing since while at Burning Man the previous year.


First off, some might people need to decide to either prepare for Burning Man or prepare for something different if tickets for Burning Man don't pan out. I wouldn't get a moving van, shade, and a bunch of stuff all lined up and get a flight to Peru scheduled at the same time and eat the flight ticket to Peru if the tickets to BM indeed materialize. Sales of flight tickets, which have always seemed convoluted at the least with countless price tiers, are a straightforward thing compared to what this lottery seems to be turning out to be.
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby BBadger » Sat Jan 28, 2012 4:24 pm

"Hello, my name is Mr. Ngabolo John Aboh, the director of theme-camp ticket purchases for the Nigeria Dubstep Camp to be located at 9:20 and Castration at Black Rock City. It is my pleasure to inform you of a transaction involving some fifteen (15) over-invoiced Tier-1 ($240) Burning Man tickets purchased in January 2012. These are paper tickets and unfortunately we cannot pick them up due to our foreign status. We need a Burner located in the United States to process the transaction, for which repayment will be provided. Four of the fifteen tickets will be "gifted" to the transaction partner following the transfer of payments. We ask that this transaction be carried out in the strictest confidentiality. If you are interested, please send email to <address removed> and we will contact you shortly."
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby lemur » Sat Jan 28, 2012 4:28 pm

Marscrumbs wrote:So if you don't win the lotto which will be most of us, we have to wait till June to maybe buy a secondary ticket. How are we suppost to prepare?
That's barely time to send in your DMV/Art/Themcamp permits.



considering that some people dont even start building their Mutant Vehicle until AFTER they get an invite, id say.. theres surely plenty of time!

but realistically.. theres no reason to not be planning/doing/creating before you get a ticket... camps/vehicles/whatever get denied every year after people have made spent money/time building.. it sucks for them.. but if we all did not do anything until we were sure we would get what we wanted there wouldnt be nearly as much cool art/stuff/things at the burn..
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby Marscrumbs » Sat Jan 28, 2012 4:31 pm

BBadger wrote:
Marscrumbs wrote:So if you don't win the lotto which will be most of us, we have to wait till June to maybe buy a secondary ticket. How are we supposed to prepare?
That's barely time to send in your DMV/Art/Themcamp permits.


What prevents you from preparing whether you have a ticket or not? I've been preparing since while at Burning Man the previous year.


So you build a Mutant Vehicle, apply for the permit in May, then in June you got no ticket? What a bummer. I guess you can drive it around town and try again next year. Or pay the scalpers.
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby crstophr » Sat Jan 28, 2012 4:43 pm

OP well said. Not just psych 101. It's economics 101. My biggest wish for the borg next year is to hire a decent economist to help figure out a ticket distribution system that works.

We're all hoarders now. Which is cool. I'm all for promoting selfishness if it helps teach a good lesson. Now the big question is this: When all of the folks who will now have extra tickets realize they can be sold at a profit later on, what will they do? Will a few altruistic principled folks sell theirs at face value.... sure. I would. But what would an economist tell us? They would say that but for a few outliers the majority of folks will sell for the going market rate. The market rate is set by the perception of scarcity... real or not. So this system has now encouraged people to create more scarcity than there otherwise would have been... thus increasing the market rate.... making obtaining tickets more expensive for a vast number of lottery losers which is probably me and you.

Tickets cost more on average and the profit goes to the folks who win in the lottery rather than to the ORG itself. Well done. Can you BORG folks just stick to the art and organization and leave the numbers game to people actually qualified to make decisions like this?
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby unjonharley » Sat Jan 28, 2012 4:47 pm

lemur wrote:

considering that some people dont even start building their Mutant Vehicle until AFTER they get an invite, id say.. theres surely plenty of time!


This is how we end up with so many garbage MVs.. Sorry but yours is not even a reasonable answer.. I'm working on a power train for maybe 2014..
You just don't pull a good project out of your ass..
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby BBadger » Sat Jan 28, 2012 4:49 pm

Marscrumbs wrote:What prevents you from preparing whether you have a ticket or not? I've been preparing since while at Burning Man the previous year.


So you build a Mutant Vehicle, apply for the permit in May, then in June you got no ticket? What a bummer. I guess you can drive it around town and try again next year. Or pay the scalpers.[/quote]

If it happens that way, so be it. However, I doubt that will be the situation for virtually anyone invested into bringing something like that. For one, you can get up that morning the tickets go on sale March and get your tickets that way. One fifth of them will be sold that way. In the end, the lottery or its ticket delivery in June still does not prevent you from preparing for that MV as would--and should--be occurring before tickets even go on sale anyway.

crstophr wrote:OP well said. Not just psych 101. It's economics 101. My biggest wish for the borg next year is to hire a decent economist to help figure out a ticket distribution system that works.


That "decent economist" would be... you? And does that also mean that the "decent economist" is some sort of fortune teller who knows already the outcome of this lottery?
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby Saigonborg » Sat Jan 28, 2012 5:03 pm

Another likely scenario that I think will happen is that most people with excess tickets will first offer them to camp mates and friends of friends before trying the step system. Most likely the friends of Hoarders and large camps will benefit first. It will be interesting to see how many tickets trickles into the STEP system for less well connected burners.
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby remi » Sat Jan 28, 2012 5:06 pm

The market will be so saturated in June/July, it'll be hard to pull in face value for tickets. There is no problem here.
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby Arcticcircle » Sat Jan 28, 2012 5:47 pm

I'm baffled by the lottery fans who refuse to acknowledge that this system brings a fresh set of problems and challenges. The inflated sense of scarcity (real and/or perceived) and the problems with planning major projects are issues that are so obvious with the new system, it's virtually self-evident. Go ahead and be a fan of the lottery, but don't put your head in the sand about the new reality. I'm no fortune teller, but yeah, there are simply factors at hand that could be gleaned from a couple of 101 classes in psych and econ.

Another thing that makes me sad about the lottery? The latent animosity it sort of encourages. If we weren't all competing for tickets at the moment, we'd be having a lot more fun on here, I guarantee it. I certainly would. I'll be going to BM, even if I have to pay some a-hole 1000 dollars for a ticket, but this whole system has just been such a drag. Just my opinion.
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby AntiM » Sat Jan 28, 2012 5:50 pm

Actually, I'm a big fan of the presale right now.
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby Arcticcircle » Sat Jan 28, 2012 5:51 pm

And yes, I agree that most lotto winners will of course look out camp mates and friends first. Very curious to see if many people use STEP. Glad they set it up as an option, but it seems like it will probably be a last resort for most.
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby Arcticcircle » Sat Jan 28, 2012 5:53 pm

trilobyte wrote:All that was true the minute tickets sold out last July. Scarcity is the problem. If it was done via first come, first serve the boards would be filled with people screaming bloody murder about the event having completely sold out already.


Yeah, trilo, I just disagree. Tired of hearing lotto defenders paint critics as hysterical and unreasonable, too.

Fingers crossed for lotto results.
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby theCryptofishist » Sat Jan 28, 2012 6:06 pm

remi wrote:The market will be so saturated in June/July, it'll be hard to pull in face value for tickets. There is no problem here.

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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby theCryptofishist » Sat Jan 28, 2012 6:07 pm

AntiM wrote:Actually, I'm a big fan of the presale right now.

We'll see if the higher prices keep it from selling out next December...
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby pink » Sat Jan 28, 2012 6:52 pm

unjonharley wrote:So Pink suggests I buy a printer copy of a conformation, From some one on the other side of the earth.. Ever hear of buying a pig in a poke?? I hand you this bag and take your money.. You find there is no pig in the poke about the time you see my tail lights


Last year, to validate whether a ticket was real, the ticket, along with the confirmation/ sale letter , were photographed to show the ticket was valid. That letter was displayed in every fucking ticket ad I saw. So you have name, address and ticket number, which, I am suggesting, can be used to identify scalpers and burners turned scalper. So, you try to scalp your extra tix, no ticket for you next year. Mighty big encouragement to make real burners do the right thing.
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby unjonharley » Sat Jan 28, 2012 7:19 pm

pink wrote:
unjonharley wrote:So Pink suggests I buy a printer copy of a conformation, From some one on the other side of the earth.. Ever hear of buying a pig in a poke?? I hand you this bag and take your money.. You find there is no pig in the poke about the time you see my tail lights


Last year, to validate whether a ticket was real, the ticket, along with the confirmation/ sale letter , were photographed to show the ticket was valid. That letter was displayed in every fucking ticket ad I saw. So you have name, address and ticket number, which, I am suggesting, can be used to identify scalpers and burners turned scalper. So, you try to scalp your extra tix, no ticket for you next year. Mighty big encouragement to make real burners do the right thing.


The BMorg is not going to put in extra time for the herd.. It will end up with "Let the buyer beware".. So you buy a tic through STEP.. Face value plus shipping, plus shipping, plus shipping 20 40 60 $ plus pay pal... Then lets stand in line a Will Call, all 10 000 of us.. All the while your CC info is flying around the internet..
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby Sugahoneyicetea » Sat Jan 28, 2012 7:36 pm

BINGO
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby pink » Sat Jan 28, 2012 8:03 pm

unjonharley wrote:
pink wrote:
unjonharley wrote:So Pink suggests I buy a printer copy of a conformation, From some one on the other side of the earth.. Ever hear of buying a pig in a poke?? I hand you this bag and take your money.. You find there is no pig in the poke about the time you see my tail lights


Last year, to validate whether a ticket was real, the ticket, along with the confirmation/ sale letter , were photographed to show the ticket was valid. That letter was displayed in every fucking ticket ad I saw. So you have name, address and ticket number, which, I am suggesting, can be used to identify scalpers and burners turned scalper. So, you try to scalp your extra tix, no ticket for you next year. Mighty big encouragement to make real burners do the right thing.


The BMorg is not going to put in extra time for the herd.. It will end up with "Let the buyer beware".. So you buy a tic through STEP.. Face value plus shipping, plus shipping, plus shipping 20 40 60 $ plus pay pal... Then lets stand in line a Will Call, all 10 000 of us.. All the while your CC info is flying around the internet..

Well, since at this point neither you nor I have any idea how the STEP process will work, you're just spewing speculation. I was making a suggestion as to how to keep it on the up & up. And the photos to prove the ticket for sale was real didn't have CC numbers as I recall.

Ridicule me all you like, but I am simply describing how tickets were sold in the aftermarket last year. And once the prospective buyer got the info, s/he could call BMORG to validate that the number was an actual ticket sold to the person on the letter and not one of the many fakes & scams going one. With STEP, this could go one step farther; ban any burners turned scalpers from buying Tix next year.
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Re: Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

Postby unjonharley » Sat Jan 28, 2012 8:25 pm

It cost money to ship tickets.. It cost the buyer, it cost the buyer to return then it cost the new buyer for shipping.. But now getting the ticket in late summer they would go to will call.. After sales, will be a night mare this year for all concerned..
If we all end up at will call the line will be days long..

I had to sell my tic last year.. Sounded easy enough.. I buyer had to end up trusting me with there money.. Out of say 6 7 000 there is going to be some real flakes. Step sounds good.. But there will be shipping cost.. Pay pal runs about 14$ also..
I'm just saying...
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