New system will facilitate a secondary market

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New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby Borris » Sat Nov 19, 2011 8:47 am

After seeing all the details posted earlier about the ticket sales system I can safely assume that the new system will facilitate the creation of a secondary market.
In order to increase their chances of winning a ticket people will use multiple registrations, camps will have all it's members register for 2 tickets, people will use their parents / co-workers / family / non-burner friends to register. The new system facilitates the feeling of scarcity when in fact i doubt it that there truly is a scarcity.
let's look at the numbers, 3,000 pre sale tix + 40,000 main sale tix + 10,000 open sale tix + at least 3,500 scholarship tix = 56,500 tickets. add to that at least 2,500 tickets being given out for free (DPW and other long time volunteers / Workers, Sponsored artists etc.) and you'll see a total of almost 60,000 people. if the growth of the event continues at the same rate as it was in previous years this is pretty much the number of people that will want to go. BUT the new system creates a feeling of scarcity, people will find ways to register for more tickets then they need, this will create a larger demand on the lottery then there really is. YES people will put themselves for more tickets then they truly need just because of the feeling that they might not win. then after the lottery is conducted quite a lot of people will find out that they actually won more tickets then they need, his will create a very large secondary market, with a large demand and a large (although somewhat smaller) supply. now while the BM ethics frowns upon scalping the creation of a large secondary market will actually facilitate scalping. not from professional scalpers but from private parties.

This looks like a very interesting experiment in Behavioral economics, I'd really wish BMorg will publish the full statistics of how many tickets were requested during the main sale lottery and the number of tickets that changed hands through their ticket transfer system.

well, now all is left is to see if I'll win any tickets and for how much.
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby trilobyte » Sat Nov 19, 2011 9:03 am

There's been a very active secondary/aftermarket for Burning Man tickets for many, many years. Part of the shock from last year's sellout was that many long-time burners made a habit of buying tickets through friends in the secondary/aftermarket environment, and last year for the first time that supply ran dry. What will be different this year is that "Burning Man plans to create a centralized online system to facilitate the resale of unwanted/unneeded tickets." (taken from the bottom of the tickets page), which I think will mitigate some of the scamming and scalping issues that happened last year, give greater access to the secondary/aftermarket for Burning Man tickets in areas that don't have large burner communities, and generally make it easier for burners to buy and sell tickets that they're not able to use.
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby junglesmacks » Sat Nov 19, 2011 9:09 am

No it won't. I say you're dead wrong. This will do nothing but discourage the secondary market.

FWIW, you lost all credibility with the "doubting there is an issue of scarcity" line..
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby Borris » Sat Nov 19, 2011 9:39 am

junglesmacks wrote:No it won't. I say you're dead wrong. This will do nothing but discourage the secondary market.

FWIW, you lost all credibility with the "doubting there is an issue of scarcity" line..


look at the figures again, how many people do you think want to go to BM? I'd assume it's somewhere near 60,000, which is also more or less the number of tickets. the scarcity is in the hundreds, not more.
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby junglesmacks » Sat Nov 19, 2011 9:43 am

See, more proof that you're not doing your homework :D

http://tickets.burningman.com/

It clearly says that there will be 53k tickets for sale. I'm wondering if you maybe.. remember a sellout last year?

I would call that a scarcity issue and for much more than "the hundreds"..

Borris wrote: the scarcity is in the hundreds, not more.


:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby trilobyte » Sat Nov 19, 2011 10:34 am

Now now… Borris did his homework, it's you who stopped reading junglesmacks. If you read the section titled "LOW INCOME/SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAMS" you'd see that there will be a new low income ticket program in 2012. They don't specify the number of tickets, but do confirm that it will be more than what was offered in each individual program last year (which totaled 3,500). That's how he arrives at 56,600 (as he pointed out in his post).

While he did his homework, I believe he's off is in his estimation was on 2011 ticket demand, as well as projected growth in 2012. 53,735 attended the event in 2011, but thousands more were unable to attend because they weren't able to get tickets. If you look at the event attendance over the history of the event and follow the trend, ticket demand in 2011 would have been in the upper 50's had there been no limit, and in 2012 it would conservatively be in the low to mid 60's.

You guys both live in more remote areas (as burner communities go), in San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York, and a few other communities there is already a well established secondary/aftermarket. By establishing an online system to facilitate the resale of tickets, it will make that process easier and open things up to people who live all over. I see that as a good thing.
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby Kimo » Sat Nov 19, 2011 10:43 am

Here is a a quote from JRS. The total available tickets this year will exceed 56500. It will depend on how many low income tickets they make available beyond the 3500 they sold last year to determine the total amount...

[quote]LOW INCOME/SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAMS: These separate programs will be merged into a new program designed to combine the best of each for 2012. The total number of low-income tickets will be increased (from last year’s total of 3,500) to serve more participants. Further details will be released after the Main Sale has begun.[/quote]
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby junglesmacks » Sat Nov 19, 2011 11:25 am

I stand corrected and take my lumps!

I still say that the scarcity IS an issue, and it's more than in the hundreds.
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby unjonharley » Sat Nov 19, 2011 11:35 am

Secondary market is very PC for scalping
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby junglesmacks » Sat Nov 19, 2011 11:46 am

unjonharley wrote:Secondary market is very PC for scalping


That's how we roll, UJ.
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby actiongrl » Sat Nov 19, 2011 12:04 pm

FWIW, I do not have data that indicates THOUSANDS of people missed Burning Man last year. We sold out in July, and a lot of tickets changed hands after that, and people who did miss out were pretty vocal about it. I don't think thousands are looking to miss out in this scenario either. I am totally prepared to be wrong, but this has been examined from hundreds of angles and I just don't see that in the cards.
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby Kimo » Sat Nov 19, 2011 12:27 pm

Last year was the first year the event has ever sold out and there was close to 60,000 participants. It's impossible to tell how many "couldn't attend" because they couldn't get a ticket. But I think it was easily under a thousand.

It would be interesting to know how many people got stuck with their tickets that were trying to profit from reselling them. I hope the numbers were high. It's unfortunate that the supply and demand issue this past year opened the door for profiteering. I'd never seen people asking for a premium in previous years. Even self proclaimed "burners" we're trying to turn a quick buck. Lame ass stories about losing a job or having to pay for pain and suffering... WTF?

It's unfortunate because now that the BMORG is aware of this they've subsequently jacked up ticket prices by 25% this year! $420 for a presale ticket that you won't even receive a physical ticket until June of next year. Really? You can't be serious. Yes please, may I have four?
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby junglesmacks » Sat Nov 19, 2011 12:27 pm

I see the base as ever growing, personally.

If you had to pie chart the attendance habits of the population.. how would you chop it up?

I would venture to say that around 70%ish are a no matter what, I'm going to BM crowd. Around 20% are fringe-ish maybe I'll go this year. 10% are a fluke.

I say the at the rate that the event is growing and people are hearing about TTITD, that there will be around a 10%-20%-perhaps25% growth.

These numbers equate to a few thousand-ish more of a demand than last year. If I wasnt typing this from a phone while on a boat, I would elaborate and calculate.

All of this.. me and you and your father too.. is speculation. Obvi.
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby junglesmacks » Sat Nov 19, 2011 12:30 pm

I'm 1005% with you on the ticket prices.

THAT'S WHAT PEOPLE SHOULD BE PISSED OFF ABOUT.

Does it magically cost 25% more to put on the event from last year?
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby clerkkent » Sat Nov 19, 2011 12:52 pm

It costs money to convert over to a non-profit organization, and rent downtown San Francisco office space... the money needs to come from somewhere. :mrgreen:


That's how government works... take a minor issue amplified by a small group, develop a convoluted 'solution' to the supposed problem, and while everyone takes sides on the 'solution' and is busy yelling at each other, sneak in a tax/fee/revenue enhancement . Isn't it neat how our little temporary municipality has grown up? :D
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby joshuabardwell » Sat Nov 19, 2011 5:21 pm

I'm skeptical that people will be having their family members, etc... signing up for tickets. Don't forget that if you're chosen in the lottery, you're automatically charged for the tickets. That's hundreds of dollars that people have to be willing to put on the line. People's ability to pay will probably limit the amount of over-signing-up that will occur.
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby bluesbob » Sat Nov 19, 2011 5:35 pm

I don't know if it creates a scarcity, secondary market, or whatever. But I do know that it creates fear.

I'm unemployed, part-time volunteer at a rehab center, working on my masters. I have very limited funds. I forgo doing anything all year just to go to BM. Now I'm afraid I may be unable to go this year. This system may ease sales, but it sure has me afraid that I may have to spend much more than I can afford, or not go at all because of ticket cost.
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby EasterEggBuzz » Sat Nov 19, 2011 5:44 pm

joshuabardwell wrote:I'm skeptical that people will be having their family members, etc... signing up for tickets. Don't forget that if you're chosen in the lottery, you're automatically charged for the tickets. That's hundreds of dollars that people have to be willing to put on the line. People's ability to pay will probably limit the amount of over-signing-up that will occur.


Which is exactly why the lottery is heavily skewed toward people with enough resources to register numerous times through friends, family, coworkers, etc. This is especially true in the first round, where people would be spending up to $1680 per registrant before Christmas.

Is this the way of the world? Sure. But there are many ugly realities that are part of the "real world," that BMorg shouldn't strive to emulate.
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby theCryptofishist » Sat Nov 19, 2011 5:49 pm

Question, eplayans. Now that Laughing Forest has reached the magic of three digits in her numbers of posts, has she ruined her chance of "manifesting" a ticket ever again?
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby trilobyte » Sat Nov 19, 2011 5:59 pm

joshuabardwell wrote:I'm skeptical that people will be having their family members, etc... signing up for tickets. Don't forget that if you're chosen in the lottery, you're automatically charged for the tickets. That's hundreds of dollars that people have to be willing to put on the line. People's ability to pay will probably limit the amount of over-signing-up that will occur.

I completely agree. Especially as some of the folks are ranting and boasting about, it seems improbable that they'd be leaning on friends and tying up hundreds if not thousands of dollars of funds (on their cards) until June (when tickets would be fulfilled), on something that's got a pretty high probability of success for the early planners.
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby Borris » Sat Nov 19, 2011 6:11 pm

But the FAQ says that BMorg will create a system for transferring tickets earlier then June. this means that sales of tickets on the secondary market can commence once this system is in place, people won't have to wait for June to start scalping.
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby maryanimal » Sat Nov 19, 2011 6:36 pm

theCryptofishist wrote:Question, eplayans. Now that Laughing Forest has reached the magic of three digits in her numbers of posts, has she ruined her chance of "manifesting" a ticket ever again?


I'm thinking not. Last time there was a ticket from a "special friend" as I recall. I remember the resourceful qualities of ticket gathering. However I could be wrong.
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby junglesmacks » Sat Nov 19, 2011 6:53 pm

maryanimal wrote:
theCryptofishist wrote:Question, eplayans. Now that Laughing Forest has reached the magic of three digits in her numbers of posts, has she ruined her chance of "manifesting" a ticket ever again?


I'm thinking not. Last time there was a ticket from a "special friend" as I recall. I remember the resourceful qualities of ticket gathering. However I could be wrong.



The Laughing Forest sock will "magically"manifest a ticket every year as long as you continue to think that "she" is anything but a sock designed to provoke you.
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby A Jester » Sat Nov 19, 2011 7:01 pm

trilobyte wrote:
joshuabardwell wrote:I'm skeptical that people will be having their family members, etc... signing up for tickets. Don't forget that if you're chosen in the lottery, you're automatically charged for the tickets. That's hundreds of dollars that people have to be willing to put on the line. People's ability to pay will probably limit the amount of over-signing-up that will occur.

I completely agree. Especially as some of the folks are ranting and boasting about, it seems improbable that they'd be leaning on friends and tying up hundreds if not thousands of dollars of funds (on their cards) until June (when tickets would be fulfilled), on something that's got a pretty high probability of success for the early planners.



Yeah, it seems like this has the potential to kill the scalping. I imagine that instead of scalpers choosing to tie up thousands of dollars and waiting six months, they'll just go buy a bunch of Justin Bieber tickets and try to make money off of their money for six months.
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby MrMullen » Sat Nov 19, 2011 8:13 pm

A Jester wrote:Yeah, it seems like this has the potential to kill the scalping. I imagine that instead of scalpers choosing to tie up thousands of dollars and waiting six months, they'll just go buy a bunch of Justin Bieber tickets and try to make money off of their money for six months.


I would agree with this. Scalpers will have to buy a lot of ticket and then have their capital locked up in tickets for six months before they could sell them. This would make their scalping of Burning Man tickets not a very good profit center.
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby Borris » Sat Jan 28, 2012 4:43 am

I see my predictions were SPOT ON!

people registering for 2 tix even when they only need 1, people using friends / family to improve their chances and BMOrg seeing what happened decided to establish an official secondary market.
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby 7chix&me » Sat Jan 28, 2012 6:12 am

You nailed it, Borris!
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby BetaBox » Sat Jan 28, 2012 7:44 am

Every single Santa Cruz burner I know doubled up with fam/friends/SO...even the REALLY lazy and poor.
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby AntiM » Sat Jan 28, 2012 9:10 am

So, Santa Cruz burners suck?
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Re: New system will facilitate a secondary market

Postby randomgirl7 » Sat Jan 28, 2012 9:29 am

The one thing I think might come up is that people overbuy tickets but can't sell them quick enough... maybe instead of prices going up, we find they dip down a bit because of burners with 4 extra tickets they don't want.

Who knows.. maybe the secondary market will scare away all the scalpers from next year. Everyone in a rush to get rid of their extra tickets at face value would leave scalpers waiting even longer to see if they might make a profit.
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