Lottery will only make the "problem" worse.

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Lottery will only make the "problem" worse.

Postby Shadowcasting » Sat Nov 12, 2011 7:19 pm

Maybe this has been posted already, and I've just missed it. Hasn't it dawned on the powers-that-be that this lottery idea would only make the "ticket scarcity" problem worse?? Here's an example:

Last year, I logged in and bought tickets for both me and my friend/travel-companion. A third friend coming with us logged in and bought his own ticket. 2 log-ins, 3 tickets out of the pool.

This year, in order to make SURE we all get out tickets, all three of us will have to register. All three of us will register for as many tickets as we can (assuming 2) to make sure we are all covered. Let's say we all plan early, and by some luck we're all chosen... SIX tickets out of the pool instead of THREE. Now, surely the majority of camps, groups, friends, wedding parties, etc. will all come to the same conclusions.

So... multiply the number of "registrants" and multiply the number of tickets pulled from the pool.... Totally screwing the majority and requiring half the people to buy their tickets from individuals, not all of whom who adhere to the 'face value' principle.

GOOD JOB in making an inconvenience into a full-blown pain in the ass for everyone.
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Re: Lottery will only make the "problem" worse.

Postby theCryptofishist » Sat Nov 12, 2011 7:47 pm

Yeah, you missed it. Variants are in threads all over this sub-forum.
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Re: Lottery will only make the "problem" worse.

Postby trilobyte » Sun Nov 13, 2011 1:15 am

You not only missed other threads, but you're basing your example and arguments on speculation/conjecture of what the program will be. Details have not yet been posted, have patience.
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Re: Lottery will only make the "problem" worse.

Postby jkisha » Sun Nov 13, 2011 8:32 am

trilobyte wrote:You not only missed other threads, but you're basing your example and arguments on speculation/conjecture of what the program will be. Details have not yet been posted, have patience.

Yup, I'm patiently waiting to not like it when it's announced and all of the details have been explained. :cry:
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Re: Lottery will only make the "problem" worse.

Postby Packoderm » Sun Nov 13, 2011 10:20 am

I'd venture to predict that those who order tickets WILL get the tickets they ordered. What will likely be held in the balance is the tier price. Mr. Scalper can put in orders along with everybody else, but he may or may not get the profitable lower tier ticket price. He or may end up buying higher tier tickets. It might possibly be in his interest to avoid the whole thing. If I was a scalper hoping to profit from 2012 Burning Man tickets, I'd be less happy, or less certain anyway, about the ticket sales process than I was last year. (Why didn't I consider that there could be a Mrs. or Miss Scalper?)

I do believe that BMORG is doing this from the heart rather than to manipulate the market for faster ticket sales because it would be difficult to top last year's early ticket sales.

It is more difficult to predict the outcome for those who procrastinate.

Of course there could always be unintended consequences. People could hoard tickets. I think that is the debate of this thread: possible unintended consequences due to the lottery system.
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Re: Lottery will only make the "problem" worse.

Postby jkisha » Sun Nov 13, 2011 11:11 am

Packoderm wrote:
I do believe that BMORG is doing this from the heart rather than to manipulate the market for faster ticket sales because it would be difficult to top last year's early ticket sales.


Pardon my cynicism, but considering the history and infighting within the BMORG, I don't think BMORG does anything from the heart. Though they do like to give the impression that they do.
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Re: Lottery will only make the "problem" worse.

Postby unjonharley » Sun Nov 13, 2011 11:14 am

jkisha wrote:
Packoderm wrote:
I do believe that BMORG is doing this from the heart rather than to manipulate the market for faster ticket sales because it would be difficult to top last year's early ticket sales.


Pardon my cynicism, but considering the history and infighting within the BMORG, I don't think BMORG does anything from the heart. Though they do like to give the impression that they do.


I'm pretty sure most of the borg's stuff is pull out of there ass
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Re: Lottery will only make the "problem" worse.

Postby unjonharley » Sun Nov 13, 2011 11:16 am

jkisha wrote:
Packoderm wrote:
I do believe that BMORG is doing this from the heart rather than to manipulate the market for faster ticket sales because it would be difficult to top last year's early ticket sales.


Pardon my cynicism, but considering the history and infighting within the BMORG, I don't think BMORG does anything from the heart. Though they do like to give the impression that they do.


I'm pretty sure most of the borg's stuff is pull out of there ass
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Re: Lottery will only make the "problem" worse.

Postby Rice » Sun Nov 13, 2011 12:02 pm

Why don't we blow this whole supposed problem right out of the water?? At this second we have no idea of what is happening with the negotiations with the BLM with respect to the lease. Therefore, no actual indication of what the proposed population is going to be for 2012 or the subsequent few years.

2011 was a unique year. The population cap in 2011 was due to a temporary lease, which did have a population freeze. There is nothing to say it is going to happen again.

My observations, my assumptions. Nothing more...

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Re: Lottery will only make the "problem" worse.

Postby Nipple » Sun Nov 13, 2011 6:41 pm

I *REALLY* think the word Lottery blows a lot of people's minds.

It conjures up horrible odds. 1 in 6,000,000,000 style odds.

Lets say there are 50,000 of your friends who ARE THE ONE TRUE BURNER, BURNIEST, BEEN GOING SINCE 1864 HARDCORE, LARRY BORROWED AND RUINED THEIR TENT.

Let's also say there is a giant company named SCALPCO. They've arranged 20,000 TICKET SMURFS. The demand is now for 70,000 tickets. There are only 50,000.

You have a 71% chance of getting tickets. In a Lottery you have a .000000017% chance of winning.
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Re: Lottery will only make the "problem" worse.

Postby Rice » Sun Nov 13, 2011 7:26 pm

Nipple wrote:I *REALLY* think the word Lottery blows a lot of people's minds.

It conjures up horrible odds. 1 in 6,000,000,000 style odds.

Lets say there are 50,000 of your friends who ARE THE ONE TRUE BURNER, BURNIEST, BEEN GOING SINCE 1864 HARDCORE, LARRY BORROWED AND RUINED THEIR TENT.

Let's also say there is a giant company named SCALPCO. They've arranged 20,000 TICKET SMURFS. The demand is now for 70,000 tickets. There are only 50,000.

You have a 71% chance of getting tickets. In a Lottery you have a .000000017% chance of winning.


OMG!! Only 71% chance...

Well, actually, that is not quite as bad as a lottery. In fact, miles better than a lottery.

It would be a lot easier on everyone if there were some actual information on how this lottery would work... Cause I read the JRS about 10 times, and I still have NO idea!

Not knowing, exactly, what the hell is happening... is kinda frustrating!!!!
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Re: Lottery will only make the "problem" worse.

Postby Shadowcasting » Fri Jan 27, 2012 8:41 pm

[quote="trilobyte"]You not only missed other threads, but you're basing your example and arguments on speculation/conjecture of what the program will be. Details have not yet been posted, have patience.[/quote]

Yeeaaaah, so how about that speculation/conjecture I offered up 2 months ago.... so "unexpected!"
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Re: Lottery will only make the "problem" worse.

Postby CornMan » Mon Mar 19, 2012 12:34 am

Packoderm wrote:I'd venture to predict that those who order tickets WILL get the tickets they ordered. What will likely be held in the balance is the tier price. Mr. Scalper can put in orders along with everybody else, but he may or may not get the profitable lower tier ticket price. He or may end up buying higher tier tickets. It might possibly be in his interest to avoid the whole thing. If I was a scalper hoping to profit from 2012 Burning Man tickets, I'd be less happy, or less certain anyway, about the ticket sales process than I was last year. (Why didn't I consider that there could be a Mrs. or Miss Scalper?)

I do believe that BMORG is doing this from the heart rather than to manipulate the market for faster ticket sales because it would be difficult to top last year's early ticket sales.

It is more difficult to predict the outcome for those who procrastinate.

Of course there could always be unintended consequences. People could hoard tickets. I think that is the debate of this thread: possible unintended consequences due to the lottery system.


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Re: Lottery will only make the "problem" worse.

Postby trilobyte » Mon Mar 19, 2012 12:52 am

Yeah - and not a single person, either on ePlaya or anywhere else, predicted the unprecedented spike in demand from people who actually wanted to go to the event.
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Re: Lottery will only make the "problem" worse.

Postby socks » Mon Mar 19, 2012 7:43 pm

The tickets are in the hands of the scalpers and BM.org knows it.Once they start mailing tickets then you will see the tickets for sale.
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Re: Lottery will only make the "problem" worse.

Postby The CO » Mon Mar 19, 2012 9:55 pm

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Re: Lottery will only make the "problem" worse.

Postby CornMan » Mon Mar 19, 2012 10:02 pm

The CO wrote:Image


Oh, I'm sorry. Should I have started a new thread instead? I don't know how to transfer these quotes to a new thread.
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Re: Lottery will only make the "problem" worse.

Postby CornMan » Mon Mar 19, 2012 10:03 pm

socks wrote:The tickets are in the hands of the scalpers and BM.org knows it.Once they start mailing tickets then you will see the tickets for sale.


I'll resurrect this thread again when we know what happened for certain.
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Re: Lottery will only make the "problem" worse.

Postby lemur » Mon Mar 19, 2012 11:10 pm

i predict that people will be like SEE I TOLD YA SO even if we see 100~ tickets sold.. just like they did when speculator tickets ended up on the internet sites.

even if we saw 2500 tickets for sale for above-ticket price thats still less than 5% of the tickets available.

subsequent I TOLD YOU SO, THE LLC DIDNT LISTEN, WE SHOULD HAVE NAMES ON TICKETS posts will still occur even if every 95 out of every 100 tickets werent scalped.

such is the way of naysayers..
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Re: Lottery will only make the "problem" worse.

Postby trilobyte » Mon Mar 19, 2012 11:34 pm

@socks - I'd be inclined to agree with you if scalpers behaved the same way with other events. With every other ticketed event on the market, scalpers start posting their listings the second they've made their ticket purchase (well, in many cases they'll even list events before they've got tickets lined up). Coachella has had thousands of tickets change hands and has thousands of available tickets listed, tickets mail this month. The bay area Madonna shows had nearly a thousand tickets offered between three sites I checked only 40 minutes after the two shows (with 38K total tickets). In the case of the Bonnaroo festival that event still hasn't even sold out and on the three sites I'm tracking more than 1500 tickets are on offer. Tickets won't get mailed out on those for several months. Why exactly would hundreds (or even thousands) of independent ticket scalpers all decide to treat Burning Man differently?
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Re: Lottery will only make the "problem" worse.

Postby theCryptofishist » Tue Mar 20, 2012 9:58 am

Silly trilo, the burningman scalpers are in the pockets of llc, who didn't have the guts to raise ticket prices to $1000, so they are acting as their own scalpers through catspaws. And rabbits foots.And I'm going to strike through that text because I don't want people to take it seriously. (It's horrible that I feel I have to do that.)
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