Back of the Napkin math..

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Back of the Napkin math..

Postby lemur » Thu Feb 02, 2012 3:01 am

GREETINGS!!!

so.. I am surprised I have not seen this come up yet in all of the hand wringing..

but.. CONSIDER THIS: all of this "names on tickets" stuff and all sortsa other ideas..

If we added 1 second per person entering black rock city when the gates open.. how many seconds that would add on to the wait for the last guy in line? to the entire process


LETS TAKE A GUESS.. lets say 20,000 people enter black rock city in the main rush..

LET US SAY, that it takes only 1 second longer to check an ID.. lets assume the same staffing and capacity as we always had,..... perhaps we assume that the ONLY THING that they do at the gate is a 1 second per person check of /something/


adding 1 second to each person getting in would add 5 HOURS AND 33 MINUTES extra to gate entry the entire process!!!


how about 30,000 people?! 8 hours and 20 minutes!! extra work


how about we come up with some other back of the napkin maths..

ya know, it all seems simple until you start multiplying it by 30,000 ..

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1+ ... *+30%2C000
Last edited by lemur on Thu Feb 02, 2012 3:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Back of the Napkin math..

Postby lemur » Thu Feb 02, 2012 3:13 am

yeah!!

there is more than one lane at gate..


so how many would we need to add to make it 'work' ?!


i think there are 6 lanes at gate ? (surely someone knows)

is my math right?!

adding 1 second * 30,000 / 6 = 1 hour and 20 minutes more wait time for the guy at the end of the line.. (and 8 more man hours of work to process those people)

we would need 36 gates to bring that down to a mere 13 extra minutes for the guy at the end of the line (that would probably not inflict too much damage on the line backing up to the pavement..
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Re: Back of the Napkin math..

Postby lemur » Thu Feb 02, 2012 4:07 am

so how many cars IS that?!

what is there, like 4 lanes coming in to the city on the gate road once you hit the dust ?

i think the gate road is like 4 miles right ?

the average car is about 13 feet long..

1 car * 4 lanes * 4 miles / 13 feet per car

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1+ ... 2F+13+feet

is this right!? about 6500 vehicles capacity on gate road (using the figures i made up)



so lets say we have 6500 cars and they have to stop for 30 seconds each at one of 6 lanes..

it takes 9 hours and 1 minute to process those cars... and we dont back up to the main highway..

but what if cars still keep coming during this process..

the guy at the end of the line in our example is going about 0.45 miles per hour..

if we add 1 hour 20 minutes to that it the guy at the end of the line is going about 0.39 miles per hour

so how about that backup on to the pavement ?

how much of a difference IS that 1 hour 20 minutes gonna make for the new arrivers? how much longer will the line on the pavement be if its moving at 0.45 instead of 0.39mph ?

.. im not sure what numbers to type in to the calculator to figure that out... that makes my head hurt..


but if we assume that 1 car every 10 seconds arrives during that 1 hour and 20 minutes.. coming up what is effectively a dead stop ( 0.39 mph ) from the main paved road we will have 480 vehicles ( at an average of 13 feet each ) or about.. 1.2 miles worth coming each hour and 20 minutes..

how that is changed by the difference of speed to process the line by 1 hour 20 minutes.. im not sure yet (but!! i will figure that out!!)
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Re: Back of the Napkin math..

Postby AntiM » Thu Feb 02, 2012 8:08 am

*raises hand*

Mr. Lemur? May I use the hall pass? I need to use the bathroom.
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Re: Back of the Napkin math..

Postby ygmir » Thu Feb 02, 2012 8:25 am

she's lying teacher!!
she's gonno go make out with that "Larry" guy................
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Re: Back of the Napkin math..

Postby littleflower » Thu Feb 02, 2012 8:30 am

Hmmmmmmm .... i don't know, Lemur ....

think about going to the airport. the big line is the one where they make you undress and take x-rays and rummage through all your stuff. the ID line is like a pre-line, and it's never as bad. the same has been true every time i've been to burning man .... there is a greeter who says "howdy" before the inspectors go through your stuff to find stowaways and things.... just have that person do a ticket check before the real inspection while everyone is waiting in line. it might require a few more volunteers ..... but there may be more stepping up ....

i think the bigger problem is with costs and ticket exchange. too much can happen between january and august...... how much would adding names and photos to tickets, and reissuing exchanged tickets with new pix and everything going to cost? you know who will pay ....
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Re: Back of the Napkin math..

Postby wh..sh » Thu Feb 02, 2012 8:52 am

lemur, you stay up all night AGAIN? *shakes head*
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Re: Back of the Napkin math..

Postby lemur » Thu Feb 02, 2012 9:17 am

i woke up when you all went to sleep!


someone has to work the night shift...


edit: where do you think i got the name lemur from ??? (hint: it wasnt from staying awake all day)

They are named after the lemures (ghosts or spirits) of Roman mythology due to the ghostly vocalizations, reflective eyes, and the nocturnal habits of some species.
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