The Long Cold Winter

All things outside of Burning Man.

The Long Cold Winter

Postby can't sit still » Wed May 30, 2007 10:52 pm

There's a long cold winter in the forecast.
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/kondratieff.html

There is some very interesting information about the economy. The part that I see first hand is all the layoffs locally [L.A.] I hear that there is no wait now in nice restaurants.
The last great dperession was supposedly the result of,,, no money.
http://www.justiceplus.org/bankers.htm

That pompous SOB, sir Alan Greenspan said that he could completely bypass the Kondratieff winter. He figured that all he had to do was pump in liquidity. It takes a dumb-fuck to believe that liquidity is the same as wealth. He bet the whole world economy and now he's gotten out of Dodge. It doesn't make me feel too confident about the outcome of him screwing with the money supply. The dollar has lost 40% in 2 years.

Ford is worth 7.8 billion but has 117 billion in outstanding debt. Most U.S. corporations are far behind about paying into their retirement funds,,, to the tune of a few hundred billion.

GOV isn't doing any better at retirement money;
""
The federal government recorded a $1.3 trillion loss last year — far more than the official $248 billion deficit — when corporate-style accounting standards are used, a USA TODAY analysis shows.
The loss reflects a continued deterioration in the finances of Social Security and government retirement programs for civil servants and military personnel. The loss — equal to $11,434 per household "

At the center of the whole criminal scheme is the FED. It's just a private corporation that prints our money for the GOV.
When Woodrow Wilson signed the bill authorising the FED he Said" I fear that I have destroyed my country" Well, now there's no doubt. Last year the FED created gazillions of dollars out of thin air and loaned them to the GOV. GOV paid 400 billion dollars interest for the loan of this money. Year after year, the bankers who own the FED siphon off billions. All it costs them is 3 cents to print a bill.
JFK started printing US bills,,, not Federal reserve notes. It got him a bullet in the head. Lincoln did the same [before the FED]
This site has a good graph of the money supply.
http://www.howestreet.com/articles/inde ... le_id=2463
They're printing money and instruments so fast that GOV quit reporting M3 moneyt last march. Americans are so accustomed to a steady currency that they don't pay any attention.
GOV will do anything to keep americans from saving money. The pundits are all talking about the economy being strong. Shoot, the stock market is doing soooo good,,,,who needs earnings? If the consumers loose confidence, the whole thing comes down.
The carlysle investment group figures that the whole financial system will collapse in 18 months. The International Forcaster says,,,this october. Who the hell knows?
The U.S. has been hollowed out. The capital is going overseas with the jobs. Gates got out of the dollar 2 years ago. Now, he's gotten out of the stock market.[buys a dollar and sells 64$]
There is some doubt if the U.S. even has ownership of the gold in it's vaults;
http://www.conspiracyplanet.com/channel ... 222&page=2

Everyone who holds dollars is dumping them and the foreign central banks are having less and less efffect at supportinng our sinking currency. The U.S. consumers will be the last to find out.

I wish luck to you all. There might have been a possibility that sir Alan could have turned things around, but with the mad texan spending monay that never existed, I doubt that it's possible to avoid a long cold winter.
Dan
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Postby can't sit still » Thu May 31, 2007 9:44 pm

According to Mike Swanson, "the accumulation of debt in the United States cannot continue much longer. In the last century the ratio of debt to GDP hovered between 120% and 160%. In 1929 debt rose to 260%. Now the ratio of debt to GDP is at a mad 300% and has been growing over the past year. Something has to give."

The US currency is now # 51 in the world.
The poverty rate is # 23
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Postby LeChatNoir » Thu May 31, 2007 10:14 pm

Guess we all better make it to the Burn this year. Might be a while before the next one.
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Re: The Long Cold Winter

Postby MoisturePup » Thu May 31, 2007 10:49 pm

Dan why isn't anybody else saying this? Surely somebody who is reputable and not anon on the internet could make these claims. I remember 2003 as a bleak year. Lots of unemployed. That's the year the item you posted about was written. If this were really coming I'd like to know, but I need a better source for the information.
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Postby robotland » Fri Jun 01, 2007 5:04 am

LeChatNoir wrote:Guess we all better make it to the Burn this year. Might be a while before the next one.


I'll still be paying for the GAS from this year by then...Looking at something like eight hundred clams.

This WILL be a damn good one, though. I regret NOTHING. See you soon.

Besides, it'll be nice to get out of ol' Number Fifty for a week or so- Pretty damn depressing, if I dare use that word.
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Postby can't sit still » Fri Jun 01, 2007 7:50 am

The only thing that keeps the US going is confidence. If "someone" were to shoot a hole in this confidence it might precipitate a real landslide. Nobody wants to be the one who started it.
BTW, Greenspan says that there is a one in three chance that the US will go into recession/depression. He would be the one to know. He's responsible for the debt creation. He's tried to inject liquidity to avoid the natural downturn of the cycle. It remains to be seen if the destruction of the dollar is a worse alternative than the natural downturn.
The news agencies found that if they reported bad news, they lost viewers.
Interestingly enough, the American Truckers Association has reported an 8% reduction in tonnage of freight hauled,,, while the GOV still claims that the economy is still growing.
The general consensus is that SOMETHING is going to come along and "tip" the whole mess. Kuwait has just disconnected themselves from the dollar. Others are considering it.
Increased energy costs might start a cascade.
It seems that very few people want to hear the news if it's bad. Economics is boring to most people. The S&L crash and the dot com crash all had warning signs. Very few people are willing to take an active interest in following economic trends.
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Postby Sensei » Fri Jun 01, 2007 5:07 pm

And even fewer of them are saying it's time to pull one's pants down whilst running around in circles and screaming that the sky is falling.

There's a reason for that.

You use words like 'recession' and 'inflation' like they're evil or something. It's all ebb and flow.

The only thing that keeps the US going is confidence.


That's the only thing that keeps any large economy flowing.
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Postby Captain Goddammit » Fri Jun 01, 2007 11:19 pm

I have a simple way of judging the local economy: I look at how many tower cranes are up in the sky... lots of them means lots of building and usually general good times.

We have a sky full of 'em here in Seattle right now.

Oh, by the way, Sensei is a doo-doo head.
(But let's go floatin' anyway!)
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Postby MoisturePup » Sat Jun 02, 2007 2:09 am

Captain Goddammit wrote:I have a simple way of judging the local economy: I look at how many tower cranes are up in the sky... lots of them means lots of building and usually general good times.

We have a sky full of 'em here in Seattle right now.

Oh, by the way, Sensei is a doo-doo head.
(But let's go floatin' anyway!)


The skys of SF are full of cranes too. We're building a whole bunch of high rises right now. If "those in the know" really thought the economy was bout to upturn they'd be investing in gold, not high rises.
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Postby robotland » Sat Jun 02, 2007 5:10 am

Out here, that the marshlands are full of cranes is more comforting.
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Postby MoisturePup » Sat Jun 02, 2007 9:19 am

robotland wrote:Out here, that the marshlands are full of cranes is more comforting.


The thought of relieving pressure on the real estate market through high density residential high-rise construction is very comforting to 30 year-old home renter me. The fact that the self centered BANANAs (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything) are finally loosing their grip on city governments is a welcome change to me. I mean, my god, the population growth of the state (and the whole country for that matter) is far outpacing the new home starts. Buying a home is one of the biggest and most important financial decisions any of us can make and even though I make good money I still can't afford to buy a home in San Francisco. Demand is far outpacing new homes and that is a crime against my generation and it's ability to create a long term stable financial situation. Fucking self centered hippy assholes.
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Postby Sensei » Sat Jun 02, 2007 11:37 am

Actually, I believe Robotland was making a ha-ha (ya' know, the bird type crane?)

Now you've got it.
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Postby Sensei » Sat Jun 02, 2007 11:41 am

Oh, and I am a doo-doo head.

Even Capt. Margarita said so.
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Postby MoisturePup » Mon Jun 04, 2007 4:54 pm

Sensei wrote:Oh, and I am a doo-doo head.

Even Capt. Margarita said so.


I know he was making use the word cranes to refer to birds. And I was feeling irritable about my inability to buy a home despite having been saving for 7 years for a down payment. The real estate markets never ending upward swing (due to a housing shortage created by the BANANAs increasing demand) has outpaced my ability to save for a down payment.
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Postby helitack » Mon Jun 04, 2007 5:18 pm

Get a better paying job, or move to a place with a lower cost of living.
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Postby Apollonaris Zeus » Mon Jun 04, 2007 6:20 pm

Don't worry cars are going to cost less, but you won't be able to afford the gas to run it:


'Marketplace Report': World's Cheapest Car


Day to Day, June 4, 2007 · Have you driven a Tata lately?

Indian carmaker Tata Motors announced it will unveil the world's cheapest car in January. The no-frills, four-door compact car will cost just $2,500.

Sam Eaton of Marketplace talks with Madeleine Brand about cheap cars and India's rapidly growing car industry.

Hey, if you can't run it on gas, you can always cut out the floor and flintstone it!

PS- and you are aways welcome to AZ soup kitchen on the playa. (is that still legal on the playa?)
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Postby BAS » Tue Jun 05, 2007 6:28 pm

Well, housing prices should be dropping. Someone I know just had to sell his old house for a loss in Madison, WI-- which, historically speaking, is unusual for Dane County (with a few exceptions-- such as a house I once saw advertised which, if one read carefully between the lines, had had its septic tank leak into its well....) The ever larger houses combined with riskier loans was a real unstable situation, and I think it has started to collapse. On the other hand, I really haven't been paying much attention, since I am really far from ever being able to afford a house-- except maybe for one of these:

http://www.tumbleweedhouses.com/home.htm


Good luck.


BAS
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Postby Ugly Dougly » Wed Jun 06, 2007 9:44 am

Poverty is an illusion created by human minds. The truth is that there is only adundance in the universe. The universe holds all the room that any human can ever make use of, the sun exudes more energy than we can possibly employ, the earth hides more resources than humans will ever need.

The concept of poverty is an illusion created by human minds. Be free of it, and enjoy prosperity, as is your right.
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Postby BAS » Thu Jun 07, 2007 3:45 am

Ugly Dougly wrote:Poverty is an illusion created by human minds. The truth is that there is only adundance in the universe. The universe holds all the room that any human can ever make use of, the sun exudes more energy than we can possibly employ, the earth hides more resources than humans will ever need.

The concept of poverty is an illusion created by human minds. Be free of it, and enjoy prosperity, as is your right.


So, why am I being taken to Small Claims Court? :?


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Postby gyre » Thu Jun 07, 2007 9:29 am

Because they don't think you have enough money to take you to large claims court.
If they think you're trying to cooperate and they can't collect, they won't even do that.
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It would be a shame if I had to resort to self-deception to preserve my faith in objective reality.
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Postby can't sit still » Sun Aug 12, 2007 9:25 am

During the great depression, GOV investigated the causes. In 1935 the senate decided that much of the cause was run-away speculation. They passed laws regulating S&Ls, banks and other financial institutions. They also decided that the "pools" were so overleveraged that they were too destabilising.
Fast forward to corporate takeover of GOV. Raygun Ronnie threw out the regulatory controls on S&Ls. They blew all to hell,,,big fucking surprise. It cost the taxpayers 1 trillion to bail them out. Plundered!!

Forward again; Hot pants clinton let corporate lawyers rewrite banking laws. Pools made their re-appearance as "hedge funds"

The dot/com brought new opportunities that weren't regulated. Capital was severly abused and that blew. Plundered again.

Greenspan comes along and says,,, we're going to give loans to people who can't pay them back,,,, it's a whole new world.

Central banks start pumping in liquidity for the last 5 years like there's no tomorrrow. They would like you to believe that liquidity is the same as wealth. 3 weeks ago a couple of Bear-Stearns funds went poof!! Central bankers said that they wouldn't interfere with the market,,,,, yeah right. Investors got a bit panicky when they couldn't get their money out of a couple of funds last week. Thursday and friday the central banks pumped in a half trillion dollars. So much for not interfering.
It's a big question just how much the central banks can retain control http://www.moneyweek.com/file/28158/hav ... ntrol.html
The unfunded liabilities for the US gov are said to be 50 trillion. The capital market knows this and is just waiting for the last moment to make it's exit. It's musical chairs and the American worker is going to get the shaft once more.
Capital has no soul. It flows to where it will get the most return. The lowest labor and materials market. Capital also has no brain. It will beat people down until they have nothing,,,, then it will offer them cheap goods to buy,,,, with what???? Capital will pander to America as long as we have money.
During the great depression, there was plenty of everything except money;
http://www.justiceplus.org/bankers.htm

This isn't just in the US. The debt overburden worldwide is reconned at 500 trillion. Japan has had 12 years of recession because their real estate market blew. Why should the US escape?

Mr. Moisture, you asked about mainstream dialog about this problem. How about the Washington Post and the Comptroller General;
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 00653.html

The GAO has proven to be FAR more responsible than GOV in general.
As far as "ebb and flow" True, it ebbs out of my pocket and flows into the banker's pocket. That's why the dollar has lost 99% since the FED was instituted.
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Postby can't sit still » Sat Sep 01, 2007 5:45 pm

Here's a guy who has very low expectations. http://larouchepac.com/news/2007/08/27/ ... -octo.html
Who knows??
The guy who runs countrywide says we're headed for a recession. He certainly did his part. He sucked out 500 million before his company went down the tubes.
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Postby can't sit still » Fri Sep 07, 2007 6:17 pm

GOV seems to be getting a bit paranoid about the finances of the country; http://www.roguegovernment.com/news.php?id=3010

they also seem to be a bit paranoid about civil insurrection

http://www.blacklistednews.com/view.asp?ID=4185

Greenspan says that he's surprised that the economy is still alive. Does GOV know something that we should know???

Dan
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Postby can't sit still » Tue Sep 11, 2007 6:40 pm

Yeah, it's me again. There is some interesting stuff going on. The only thing is that Americans loathe hearing bad news.
#1 problem is that Americans have been living by selling their debt.
#2 problem is that we took shitty subprime debt,,, rated it AAA and sold it to the rest of the world.
#3 The rest of the world has just learned that and is pissed.
#4 the rest of the world isn't buying our debt anymore,,,shitty or otherwise.
#5 The US rolls over 50 billion in working debt every week.
#6 it's come to a screaching halt,,,, no credit.
#7 it's backed up a couple hundred billion,,, the economy is constipated.
One analyst who seems to be pretty informed says that it can go about 5 more weeks before the constipation becomes a shit storm.
http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish ... 2396.shtml

I believe in the greater community of man. As a burner, I would be remiss if I didn't point out some negative trends in our world/society. You can call me alarmist,,,OK. If you break down the GOV employment figures for the last report,,, we lost 124,000 jobs,,, not the reported 4,000. The report figures everyone that is not receiving unemployment assistance must have gotten a job. Total bullshit.
To the people in Ohio and Michingan,,, I'm not alarmist. They've lost 500,000 jobs in the last 3 years.
You can make your own decision about where the truth lies but, you must be informed. There are good links at Dollar collapse .com.
With credit cut off, many businesses will have to shut down and lay off. California is currently $750,000 behind in income to fund state operations. Americans have had so much stability for so long, they just can't concieve of a credit or currency collapse. Our combined debt is $37 trillion. We fucked ourselves good by selling bad debt. Now, the world isn't going to come to our rescue.
Larry Harvey's gospel of radical self-reliance is going to become a working philosophy for many people.
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Postby BAS » Wed Sep 12, 2007 8:31 am

One analyst who seems to be pretty informed says that it can go about 5 more weeks before the constipation becomes a shit storm.


So this means I have about five weeks to find my umbrella and buy a rainsuit...? :shock:



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Postby eplaya mess up » Wed Sep 12, 2007 12:27 pm

Forgive the new moniker folks - I buggered up my regular eplaya acocunt and now cant get in it because the email addy listed on it is gone on my end.

so heres some happy math.

China - has been propping up the US dollar for years now. They have been buying debt, us treasury bonds and whatever else they could to keep our dollar up. This is in their favor as we are their largest consumer.

Problem is now China et.al. hold trillion in US bonds. They will need the money back eventually. If they were to dump just a fraction of what they hold we are buggered. How about the dollar losing half its value in a week?

1 in 4 ARMS originated in the period 2002-2004 is in foreclosure. Peope bought more house than they could afford, and then their payments have doubled since some tripled.

My advice - Get out of debt now, dump any non owner occupied realestate you dont have rented long term, dump the marginal real estate investments you made the last 5 years. That will end up fucking someone else, but real estate is going to tank here in less than a year - Ill put my life against your donut on it.

more to come

later
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Postby can't sit still » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:56 pm

BAS, better get gum boots to go with that umbrella. There are already 3 million homeless and many, many more facing foreclosure. Several cities are already passing laws that you can live in your car. I suspect that those who can't afford a membership at 24 Hr Fitness will be crapping anywhere. I travelled across India in a camping bus without a bathroom. Everyone had either "Delhi Belly" or Dysentary. Those were the lucky ones. The unlucky ones had Hep. We travelled across India 12 miles at a time,,, slam on the brakes and people would fly out the back and drop their drawers. Gotta have gum boots!
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Postby ibdave » Thu Sep 13, 2007 7:52 am

eplaya mess up wrote:Forgive the new moniker folks - I buggered up my regular eplaya acocunt and now cant get in it because the email addy listed on it is gone on my end.


And your OLD MONIKER was???????
I was Born OK the 1st Time....

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Postby can't sit still » Sat Sep 15, 2007 2:00 pm

Interesting numbers;

September 14, 2007

American Consumers are Losing their Crown


With the U.S. Dollar Index breaking decisively below its long-term support level, the sun is finally setting on the golden age of American consumption. As America’s economic dominance fades, so too will the faith in the central thesis that has explained its apparent success and has shaped the majority of recent economic theory.

At issue is the belief that a nation can grow and prosper by borrowing from abroad in order to consume imported goods. To consume at the pace that it has, America exchanges income producing assets, such as companies or property, or interest bearing IOUs, such as Treasury notes or mortgage-backed bonds, for foreign made clothes, toys and electronics. Economists call these transactions “growthâ€
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Postby can't sit still » Thu Sep 20, 2007 5:52 pm

GOV survives by selling bonds to foreigners. The US GOV seems to be in complete denial. They want to raise the debt ceiling. Who are they going to sell to?
"The latest US government data on foreign holdings released this week show a collapse in purchases of US bonds from $97bn to just $19bn in July, with outright net sales of US Treasuries."

This is an eloquent article that sumarises things very clearly. It's up to you to judge it's accuracy.
http://www.mises.org/story/2706
Even the Sauds are having to run for cover;

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.j ... udi119.xml

GOV is pumping in liquidity. Only a shit-for-brains banker could believe that liquidity is the same as wealth. The money being pumped in is not being used to rectify problems. It is being used to bail people out of risky stuff,,,, and buy treasuries and commodities and gold.

Kuwait already cut loose. When Saudi cuts loose , there will be that many more people who will run for cover.
If China dumps, it's all over for the dollar.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.j ... na107a.xml
Of course, it will be extremely bad for China too. It IS getting interesting. 8)
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