Tickets Supply and Demand for 2103

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Tickets Supply and Demand for 2103

Postby hippyDdoc » Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:09 pm

So will the 2013 year have greater supply or greater demand for playa access?
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Re: Tickets Supply and Demand for 2103

Postby Captain Goddammit » Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:32 pm

Well I missed the initial ticket grab, turned down offers of bullshit-priced "holiday tickets" that assholes think are still worth what they paid even though the early guarantee of playa access was what made them valuable, and that's gone... I even passed up my STEP ticket offer and was able to buy two real, hard copy tickets at face value. And I even have early entry passes.
I've seen people trying to scalp tickets at inflated prices and I say screw 'em, let 'em keep them and lose their investment unless they make a better deal.
I don't think demand will surpass supply.
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Re: Tickets Supply and Demand for 2103

Postby trilobyte » Sat Jul 13, 2013 12:16 am

Speaking personally...

If you spend the kind of time you'd normally spend proofreading a message (or subject line) to think about it, you'd realize that demand has already outstripped supply. That's what happens when all the tickets in the directed group sale get sold, and that's what happens when all the ticket in the main sale get sold on the first day of sale. Hell, that's what the case would be if it took months and months for all those tickets to sell out (like what happened in 2011, when tickets didn't actually sell out until the 24th of July).

The glut of ticket sales that happened last year in August did not represent greater supply than demand, it was more like people who had extra tickets or who weren't sure about going in the first place being really bad at playing musical chairs, and waiting too long to sell. So a couple thousand were suddenly caught scrambling to sell tickets at a very late stage in the game. Though it may have been a little less than a thousand, we had huge troubles on the board with people creating multiple accounts or crossposting ticket listings, I've got to imagine that happened elsewhere too.

Burning Man, for many, is not a quick and easy trip. Sure, the history of the event is filled with tales of people who got a ticket and pulled it all together and left a couple days later... but the way it works for most of us is that unless we're already burners, we don't have most of the necessary supplies. And we might not be able to easily get the time off work. And a bunch of other factors. I think what happened is that a bunch of sellers waited until the bulk of people who wanted Burning Man tickets and could not get them had made their peace with the idea of not going.

Will that happen this year? That's hard to say. If you had gotten burned on a ticket you held onto for too long last year, are you likely to do the exact same thing? Probably not. You'll either get rid of extras sooner, or you'll avoid having extras. If you heard about others (friends, etc) getting burned, would you do what they did to get burned, or would you try and avoid that?

Sure, people are dumb, but quite a few of them are capable of learning from either their mistakes, or the mistakes of others. I kind of suspect that we'll see fewer people holding onto tickets into mid-August this year, but we'll see.

The interesting part about this year's ticket season will be demand. Some people saw what happened last year (where that last minute glut created an opportunity to buy tickets to an otherwise sold-out event for below face value), and are actually planning on taking advantage of that this year. That may be tough to do, since the strategy depends entirely upon their being a sizable glut.

On the subject of holiday ticket sellers, I'm with the Captain. I think the people who voluntarily chose to pay that premium so that they would have tickets for the holidays and all the peace of mind that goes along with beating the rush and whatnot... should not expect to pass the premium that they chose to pay onto others. The value of those holiday tickets is no greater than any other ticket to the event - all premiums dropped to zero in value on the day of the main sale. A Burning Man ticket is worth approximately $400US in my book ($380 plus fees). Just because the seller chose to pay the premium does not mean that all potential buyers would. The only question mark is how much those sellers will need to discount in order to sell.
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Re: Tickets Supply and Demand for 2103

Postby Sham » Sat Jul 13, 2013 12:22 am

Interesting question. There are more tickets available this year as well as a lot more first timers planning on coming. With the elimination of tiers and a flat price as well as the limit of two tickets per order, it seems to have eliminated hoarding. I am also seeing a nice steady stream of tickets become available without the mad scramble to get them.

The jury is still out, but things seem like they're working nice and smooth this year and everyone who wants to attend, will get to go.
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Re: Tickets Supply and Demand for 2103

Postby Captain Goddammit » Sat Jul 13, 2013 9:38 am

It boils down to this: Holiday ticket sellers already received and used the extra value of their expensive early tickets.
That value was the early peace of mind they enjoyed months ago ahead of the ticket rush. That's just as gone as the rest of the $400 value of a ticket is gone after Burning Man is over.
But since $650 is "face value", technically it's OK to ask for it.
Several years I've been in the stressful and panicky position of not having tickets after they sold out, but I've always been confident enough to pass up overpriced offers or even too-far-away offers, because I don't think the demand really is bigger than the supply, it's the distribution system that gets complicated. I don't know how to do it any better than they do it.

Whether I'd (grudgingly) pay $600+ if it was August 23 and none others were available is a different question, but we're not at that point.
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Re: Tickets Supply and Demand for 2103

Postby Odie » Sun Jul 14, 2013 4:55 pm

Lets see what happens when STEP closes, IMHO, demand will rise and OMG will be to late...
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Re: Tickets Supply and Demand for 2103

Postby Jaz99 » Mon Jul 15, 2013 12:39 am

So is there any way to see the STEP flow stats? A small amount of "Hey I got tickets. Registered for STEP when it opened" type posts don't really tell everyone much.

I've got a ticket myself but a couple of ticketless campmates might not be able to be convinced to reg for STEP this late.
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Re: Tickets Supply and Demand for 2103

Postby VultureChow » Mon Jul 15, 2013 5:33 am

It feels less dire than less year. I've seen a relative ton of face value tickets on craigslist and we've all seen the gradual lowering of holiday ticket asking prices. I think we're going to see the same thing this year that happened last year. Mid August glut with a lot of unused tickets.

Even the online ticket brokers are showing a relatively modest $495 ticket price.
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Re: Tickets Supply and Demand for 2103

Postby trilobyte » Mon Jul 15, 2013 11:32 am

Sorry, STEP statistics are not typically published.
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Re: Tickets Supply and Demand for 2103

Postby fresh » Thu Jul 18, 2013 11:10 pm

STEP is up to 3/16 according to other dicussion on eplaya. much different this year, last year STEP was limited to 2000 registrants. Took 1 hour or so to fill up. Notsure what this means, but tix have come down drastically. another hyped up story
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