If you spend the kind of time you'd normally spend proofreading a message (or subject line) to think about it, you'd realize that demand has already outstripped supply. That's what happens when all the tickets in the directed group sale get sold, and that's what happens when all the ticket in the main sale get sold on the first day of sale. Hell, that's what the case would be if it took months and months for all those tickets to sell out (like what happened in 2011, when tickets didn't actually sell out until the 24th of July).
The glut of ticket sales that happened last year in August did not represent greater supply than demand, it was more like people who had extra tickets or who weren't sure about going in the first place being really bad at playing musical chairs, and waiting too long to sell. So a couple thousand were suddenly caught scrambling to sell tickets at a very late stage in the game. Though it may have been a little less than a thousand, we had huge troubles on the board with people creating multiple accounts or crossposting ticket listings, I've got to imagine that happened elsewhere too.
Burning Man, for many, is not a quick and easy trip. Sure, the history of the event is filled with tales of people who got a ticket and pulled it all together and left a couple days later... but the way it works for most of us is that unless we're already burners, we don't have most of the necessary supplies. And we might not be able to easily get the time off work. And a bunch of other factors. I think what happened is that a bunch of sellers waited until the bulk of people who wanted Burning Man tickets and could not get them had made their peace with the idea of not going.
Will that happen this year? That's hard to say. If you had gotten burned on a ticket you held onto for too long last year, are you likely to do the exact same thing? Probably not. You'll either get rid of extras sooner, or you'll avoid having extras. If you heard about others (friends, etc) getting burned, would you do what they did to get burned, or would you try and avoid that?
Sure, people are dumb, but quite a few of them are capable of learning from either their mistakes, or the mistakes of others. I kind of suspect that we'll see fewer people holding onto tickets into mid-August this year, but we'll see.
The interesting part about this year's ticket season will be demand. Some people saw what happened last year (where that last minute glut created an opportunity to buy tickets to an otherwise sold-out event for below face value), and are actually planning on taking advantage of that this year. That may be tough to do, since the strategy depends entirely upon their being a sizable glut.
On the subject of holiday ticket sellers, I'm with the Captain. I think the people who voluntarily chose to pay that premium so that they would have tickets for the holidays and all the peace of mind that goes along with beating the rush and whatnot... should not expect to pass the premium that they chose to pay onto others. The value of those holiday tickets is no greater than any other ticket to the event - all premiums dropped to zero in value on the day of the main sale. A Burning Man ticket is worth approximately $400US in my book ($380 plus fees). Just because the seller chose to pay the premium does not mean that all potential buyers would. The only question mark is how much those sellers will need to discount in order to sell.