rape stats?

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Re: rape stats?

Postby C.f.M. » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:33 am

I can't believe a thread about rape made me laugh out loud.

Ultimately, you have no control over getting raped or not. It could be in the back of a pick-up truck with your best friend of ten years that you decided you love...

Get a ride with a woman
Get their contact info and the license plate number
When you're with them, send a pic to your mom

A pie chart showing only 2 percent of women who ride with a stranger into BM doesn't mean you won't be that 2%. Come up with a plan/strategy that will ease her mind (maybe talk about self-defense moves, what you'd do in scary scenarios, etc.) and do what you can along the way (like the list I made).
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Re: rape stats?

Postby gyre » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:57 am

Good point, cfm.

Statistics don't apply to individuals.
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Re: rape stats?

Postby Sham » Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:44 am

jkisha wrote:If your mom is into anecdotal stories, I've been going for five or six years and have never been raped.

Stay with it JK, eventually it will work out for you! :D
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Re: rape stats?

Postby junglesmacks » Thu Jul 28, 2011 9:04 am

Shambala wrote:
jkisha wrote:If your mom is into anecdotal stories, I've been going for five or six years and have never been raped.

Stay with it JK, eventually it will work out for you! :D



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Re: rape stats?

Postby theCryptofishist » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:08 am

I would agree that it's unlikely and to work to find people you're comfortable with. Women if that's what you need. (Yeah, too cranky to polish my prose right now.)

There is a group called Bureau of Erotic Discourse that works to combat sexual assult on-playa through education. There's a whole lot more I could say about us, but not right now--that cranky thing.
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Re: rape stats?

Postby portaplaya » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:34 pm

The rape stats for hitch-hiking are incredibly low. Possibly lower than the per-capita stats on rape at Burning Man. This is likely because hitch-hiking is very low (but instances were rare even when hitch-hiking was more popular). And becoming intoxicated is a major risk factor and this occurs much more often at Burning Man than during hitch-hiking.

Personal crimes generate a lot of fear. No one wants to be the victim of any sort of assault and it is easy to let such fear make statistics meaningless. After all, one rape is too many.

But absolute prevention has serious consequences on an enjoyable lifestyle. Or women's rights, when the prevention is instituted by cultural norms or (Sharia) law.

The real stats for rape suggest that you are much more likely to be attacked by an acquaintance, friend or relative than by a stranger. And that alcohol is usually involved. And that serial rapists are successful because they usually use the befriend-then-push-things-too-far method instead of the prey-on-a-stranger method, which almost always get the rapist caught. The media sensation of the house-breaking stranger in the night who does a string of rapes are sensations solely because they are very unusual and the possibility remains of being attacked by a stranger; very scary! But statistically the odds of attack while he remains on the loose are still very, very low.

Absolutely caution should be taken. I don't walk about golf courses holding up an putting iron, even if I cannot see storm clouds. It's just not wise. But with precautions, and stating your level of trust with the individual you are just meeting, you can actually go out and live your life in a way that is fun AND safe.
Last edited by portaplaya on Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: rape stats?

Postby Elderberry » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:36 pm

LOL I sure do hope so! I don't have that many years left! :shock:
Shambala wrote:
jkisha wrote:If your mom is into anecdotal stories, I've been going for five or six years and have never been raped.

Stay with it JK, eventually it will work out for you! :D
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Re: rape stats?

Postby Elderberry » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:38 pm

Unless, of course, the car was stolen.
Savannah wrote:
melaniejane wrote:How did this turn into guns?
meh... I love thread drift.

Send your mum a text with the licence plate number of the car you are going in - for some reason that seems to placate mothers


That's a good idea. If one has even the slightest worry, you might even let them see you snapping the photo and sending it. "For my Mom," you say, with a smile. It's not enough to have done it, they should know you did it. If that feels offensive under the circumstances, you don't have to cop to snapping the pic unless things get weird.

I recently read about a sex worker who avoided death by telling a guy she'd texted his license plate to her boyfriend (she had). The guy who tortured her is being held without bail.

http://www.kirotv.com/news/27610303/detail.html
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Re: rape stats?

Postby gyre » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:44 pm

portaplaya wrote:Personal crimes generate a lot of fear. No one wants to be the victim of any sort of assault and it is easy to let such fear make statistics meaningless. After all, one rape is too many.

But absolute prevention has serious consequences on an enjoyable lifestyle. Or women's rights, when the prevention is instituted by cultural norms or (Sharia) law.

The real stats for rape suggest that you are much more likely to be attacked by an acquaintance, friend or relative than by a stranger. And that alcohol is don't know how usually involved. And that serial rapists are successful because they usually use the befriend-then-push-things-too-far method instead of the prey-on-a-stranger method, which almost always get the rapist caught. The media sensation of the house-breaking stranger in the night who does a string of rapes are sensations solely because they are very unusual and the possibility remains of being attacked by a stranger; very scary! But statistically the odds of attack while he remains on the loose are still very, very low.

I don't doubt that acquaintance rape is more common, but I don't know how that compares, or more important, how accurate those figures are.

Several cities were recently caught fudging their reported rapes by 80%.

But unusual is just inaccurate.
No one is really sure just how under reported such crime is.
And it has become quite common now for rape to be part of robbery or home invasion and robbery.

We recently had one here where rape of male and female victims was part of the crime, and it's not the first time.

'Robbed, then Shot' is our standard headline now.


Most people have heard of the famous crime in east tennessee that started as a car theft and ended in the kidnapping, rape and murder by slow torture of the victims.
The problem is that people stupid and vicious enough to do such things are not unusual.
Most people simply can't wrap their head around the fact that some people have zero compassion for others.
You may even know someone like this, criminal or not.
We all do.


I actually met a serial rapist like you describe once.
Sort of mousy guy.
Stole from me.
Took me five minutes to catch him.

I called a detective when I heard about his arrest to see if I could help.
They confirmed he was the guy.
They cheerfully offered to prosecute him for the theft, still possible, even though he returned what he stole when I demanded he do so.
I would have been happy to, but he's serving 500 years or so.
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Re: rape stats?

Postby portaplaya » Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:10 pm

Here are some actual rape statistics (national level, not hitch-hiking or Burning Man): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_in_the_United_States

While there is disagreement on statistics, there is agreement that the likelihood of rape by a stranger is no higher than being raped by a current or former sexual partner. (The later being highly under-reported.)

And in nearly half both the perpetrator and victim had been drinking.

The National Crime Victimization Survey lists rape likelihood down 85% since 1980 from a 0.24% chance per year (1/214) to 0.04% chance (1/2,500). Perhaps being unaware of this decrease is a factor for Mom.

Here are some stats on injuries and assaults (including sexual assaults) for Burning Man: http://www.good.is/post/transparency-ho ... urning-man. I'm not sure what their sources are; it just says "Burning Man" as the source. Probably the Afterburn reports.
Note that incidents are staying pretty consistent: about 5 for the entire city over the course of the week. About the same per capita as a spring break location, such as South Padre Island. (That's 1/10,000 over the course of the week. 1/948 if BM lasted 52 weeks, or a 0.5% annual chance; but BM doesn't last all year long. And remember the intoxication factor.)

You can always view the Afterburn reports and see exactly what medical and mental health issues were reported for any given year: http://afterburn.burningman.com/10/play ... gency.html. (4 sexual assaults in 2010). To put things in a bizarre sort of context, you are ten times more likely to be transported to a hospital by ambulance or helicopter than you are to be sexually assaulted. But 4x-5x times more likely to be sexually assaulted than you are to die.
Last edited by portaplaya on Fri Jul 29, 2011 10:56 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: rape stats?

Postby jaytro4 » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:40 pm

wow, so many threads i could respond to...
I sorted it all out today, got a ride with someone I'm choosing to trust, and will even be on the playa to help set up! i'm not a big drinker, and i know how to say "no", and carrying a gun isn't even something that would ever remotely occur to me (although i do know how to shoot), so i'm good :D see you all on the playa! lets have totally consensual hugging, yes?
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Re: rape stats?

Postby trilobyte » Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:10 pm

The folks at the Bureau Of Erotic Discourse (B.E.D.) may have some actual event-related statistics, as well as other information that you may find useful. Perhaps check their site and reach out to someone there.
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Re: rape stats?

Postby gyre » Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:12 pm

I was actually suggesting a pepperblaster, which is the best non-lethal device I know of.
Tasers kill often enough to fail to qualify.

I think you should carry a gun everywhere else, provided you're capable.

Your only real worry riding in, is the traffic, seriously risky with inexperienced drivers and overloaded vehicles during the first days.

Glad you found a ride you're comfortable with.
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Re: rape stats?

Postby portaplaya » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:20 pm

Just so you know, the event permit with the BLM forbids the Gate from allowing entry to anyone with a firearm. In fact, the entire vehicle would be turned around and sent out to Gerlach or Reno to find a solution to the "can't bring a gun" problem.
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Re: rape stats?

Postby gyre » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:53 pm

Hence the reference to "everywhere else".
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Re: rape stats?

Postby portaplaya » Fri Jul 29, 2011 8:48 am

I'm just making it crystal clear that you can't bring one to Black Rock City.
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Re: rape stats?

Postby theCryptofishist » Fri Jul 29, 2011 10:16 am

trilobyte wrote:The folks at the Bureau Of Erotic Discourse (B.E.D.) may have some actual event-related statistics, as well as other information that you may find useful. Perhaps check their site and reach out to someone there.

We (as far as I know) don't. Rangers, ESD, and LE are more likely to have something, but I'm sure it's underreported.
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Re: rape stats?

Postby jaytro4 » Thu Sep 08, 2011 6:44 pm

post playa report: no rape for me this year!
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Re: rape stats?

Postby portaplaya » Thu Sep 08, 2011 6:57 pm

I heard through the (always unreliable) rumor mill that there were only two reported incidents by Saturday. Same source said that a cop mentioned that a similar sized town they work in gets about five a day.
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Re: rape stats?

Postby theCryptofishist » Thu Sep 08, 2011 7:06 pm

I'm sure that the Reno daily (is there one?) and the RGJ will post some sort of wrap up on crime on the playa soon, if they haven't already. There will be a quote or two from the sheriff or someone in his department.
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Re: rape stats?

Postby atomicray » Thu Sep 08, 2011 7:52 pm

portaplaya wrote:The rape stats for hitch-hiking are incredibly low.


The numbers show that you are more likely to be sexually assaulted by someone you know than a stranger...in the 95+% of reported (key factor here) sexual assaults happen within family settings, in or near the home...the other 05% is the random victim or a target of particular choice.

That said, I had the dubious honor of being involved with The Abel Assessment test...looking at the interest and backgrounds of various types of men in particular and on of the factors considered was type of work...over land truck drivers scored extremely high in certain areas and the Dr I was compiling data for said the number of sex offenders we had worked with over 30+yrs included many many many over land truckers and from that connection he stated that the numbers were much worse...as runaway girls almost never report the assault unless they were also beaten/hospitalized...he stated that the numbers for men to commit at least one sexual assault (from forced petting through the worst of it) is 1 in 5 and for overland truckers it is more likely 1 in 2.

I was picked up while hitching in high school after getting ditched across town...only jumping out of a moving vehicle keep me from being a statistic from this truck driver who told me what he was going to do...soooo...is it out there, most assuredly.

I am curious that no one mentioned the elephant in the room...what sort of rape numbers are there for the burning man event itself?

Forget the "rape the willing" comments, if Mom did the math I suspect that she would be more worried about the potential within the 50,000 far exceeds the potential of a shared ride to or from the event...not everyone goes to burning man to get randomly laid I suspect...though I could be wrong.

But it is out there...when traveling keep your head clear (no drugs or drinking), eyes open (no sleeping), and be pro-active and you will dramatically increase your chances to avoid any serious issues...TV and movies show most of those that commit sexual assaults as being strong and stable...far from the truth, most are self conscious and emotionally damaged...man this is a depressing subject.
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Re: rape stats?

Postby portaplaya » Thu Sep 08, 2011 8:16 pm

atomicray wrote:I am curious that no one mentioned the elephant in the room...what sort of rape numbers are there for the burning man event itself?


It has been mentioned. There are normally around 5-7 complaints of sexual assault each year at Burning Man. This is considered extremely low for any city of 50,000 by law enforcement; and this despite the alcohol consumption and "Spring Break" atmosphere.
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Re: rape stats?

Postby Savannah » Fri Sep 09, 2011 2:05 pm

There were four (reported) sexual assault cases last year. Stats for 2011 will take a while to compile.
http://afterburn.burningman.com/10/play ... gency.html

Funny how all that nudity doesn't make our city stats remarkable. It really goes to show that it's not about what a victim is wearing, but about the attitudes and culture of a place, and what kind of people are drawn to it.
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