Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for BM?

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Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for BM?

Postby vargaso » Wed Apr 11, 2012 2:15 pm

Howdy, I registered for a hiking permit to hike the Half Dome trail in Yosemite with my son this year. Seems to be the year for lotteries for me. Anyhoo, the process was fairly similar to the BM lottery, you sign up online and then wait for an email. The results go out on 4/13. One thing I really appreciate about their effort is this page that graphs out the lottery applicant statistics:

http://www.nps.gov/yose/planyourvisit/hdpermitsapps.htm

I'd love to see the BMORG do something like this, although I won't hold my breath given their track record with releasing this kind of info.
Last edited by vargaso on Wed Apr 11, 2012 2:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics

Postby junglesmacks » Wed Apr 11, 2012 2:20 pm

WOW.. you have to apply in a lottery just to hike Half Dome now??

*facepalm*


Wow. I hiked that a few times as a kid in the 80s.. I had no idea that it was that bad now..
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics

Postby vargaso » Wed Apr 11, 2012 2:23 pm

Yeah, I hiked it a couple times in the 80s/90s too. They started the lottery a few years ago, like everything else, it was getting inundated to the point where the trails and the overall experience of the hike were being compromised.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics

Postby theCryptofishist » Wed Apr 11, 2012 2:25 pm

Weren't people pushing for position in line? And yeah, line, it's like trudging up in a line. At least that's what I got out of the press reports.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby Stephendragonfly » Wed Apr 11, 2012 2:28 pm

I thought that the Half Dome Lottery System was put into place because safety was being compromised by crowding along the cable (especially on holiday weekends) and the National Park Service would get sued by families of the deceased.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby theCryptofishist » Wed Apr 11, 2012 2:30 pm

That sounds right to me.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby vargaso » Wed Apr 11, 2012 2:35 pm

From what I know, all of those things were factors in moving towards a lottery.

That said, what do y'all think of the statistics page? Would you like to see the BMORG do something like that during the lottery process once the registration period ended? I would.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby Stephendragonfly » Wed Apr 11, 2012 2:39 pm

Hopefully the Borg won't do another lottery, but if they do, yes, something like this would be nice. Next time I predict the Borg will have a giant "Dancing with the Stars" type event. That's right, we will have to gambol for tickets.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby theCryptofishist » Wed Apr 11, 2012 2:54 pm

I dunno. Yes, not knowing is aggravating. But at a certain point, it gets resource intensive beyond the utility.

How much more would you be willing to pay on top of your regular ticket price for such a graph?

Edited to add: That doesn't give you how long the line is, it gives you when people want to go. I don't know what information you think that the llc should offer, but we can take it for granted that the biggest chunk of the population will want to come in on Monday.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby Eric » Wed Apr 11, 2012 2:58 pm

vargaso wrote:That said, what do y'all think of the statistics page? Would you like to see the BMORG do something like that during the lottery process once the registration period ended? I would.


What statistics would BMORG give? The Half Dome stats are how the tickets requests are averaging for each day of the week, and the lower ones are (apparently) by exact number requested for each day. Neither of those have any meaning for BMan- all tickets have the same access (Early Entry accepted)

Not trying to be cranky, I'm just not sure what statistics they would have, other than the total number of tickets requested (and maybe the number of tickets per order). While those may be numbers that are released when they go non-profit, I don't see the LLC releasing anything other than the final number of attendees like they have in the past, not the number of requested tickets (pure speculation, not anything to do with being a Mod).
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby vargaso » Wed Apr 11, 2012 3:47 pm

Eric wrote:
vargaso wrote:That said, what do y'all think of the statistics page? Would you like to see the BMORG do something like that during the lottery process once the registration period ended? I would.


What statistics would BMORG give? The Half Dome stats are how the tickets requests are averaging for each day of the week, and the lower ones are (apparently) by exact number requested for each day. Neither of those have any meaning for BMan- all tickets have the same access (Early Entry accepted)

Not trying to be cranky, I'm just not sure what statistics they would have, other than the total number of tickets requested (and maybe the number of tickets per order). While those may be numbers that are released when they go non-profit, I don't see the LLC releasing anything other than the final number of attendees like they have in the past, not the number of requested tickets (pure speculation, not anything to do with being a Mod).


Sorry, I should have been more specific. As you suggest, Eric, I'd like to see number of requested tickets for something like the main lottery, and then maybe number of requests per email timestamp minute (EVEN THOUGH IT DOESN'T MEAN ANYTHING, ha) for STEP.

Mostly I thought what the National Park Service did for the Half Dome lottery was very much in the spirit of transparency, and gave me a warm fuzzy feeling for a government agency, which is quite a feat. Something the BMORG could learn from.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby Eric » Wed Apr 11, 2012 4:27 pm

vargaso wrote:Sorry, I should have been more specific. As you suggest, Eric, I'd like to see number of requested tickets for something like the main lottery, and then maybe number of requests per email timestamp minute (EVEN THOUGH IT DOESN'T MEAN ANYTHING, ha) for STEP.


I thought you meant the Main Lottery. For STEP I can absolutely understand why they haven't released that information (and not from a Mod perspective)- look at the rampant speculation about everything that goes on.

If they gave the numbers, people would start counting the STEP tickets posted here (or on facebook, or where-ever) and then start complaining that enough tickets weren't being put in to it, or that they should have gotten one already, or that the BMorg obviously skewed the numbers for their friends, or maybe even a fresh new conspiracy- without taking into consideration that not everyone who is in STEP posts anywhere that most people will see it. You still wouldn't have a way to track where you actually were in the queue, and it would take away the glimmer of hope that people are clinging to with the community-created use of timestamps.

The only information that would be of use is an exact number with your place in the queue, but you would still have to hope that enough people were posting somewhere public to keep track of those, and you would have to take the risks that trying to apply the infrastructure to do that would cause with the known issues any mass log-ins cause to a system.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby BBadger » Wed Apr 11, 2012 6:16 pm

While I'm not sure about how useful the information is now, especially given Eric's concerns, the information might be good for next year if it can be used to demonstrate the quantities of STEP tickets that become available over time. Then people can make "plans" or at least feel they can gauge their chances based on the previous year.

On another note, given the motives for the sign-up period for the lottery, I was pretty surprised that STEP was first-come first served especially as it had a limited pool of applicants anyway. Maybe they did intend on posting up that kind of information, but later decided against it... or maybe it was just another oversight.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby vargaso » Thu Apr 12, 2012 8:46 am

Eric wrote:
vargaso wrote:Sorry, I should have been more specific. As you suggest, Eric, I'd like to see number of requested tickets for something like the main lottery, and then maybe number of requests per email timestamp minute (EVEN THOUGH IT DOESN'T MEAN ANYTHING, ha) for STEP.


I thought you meant the Main Lottery. For STEP I can absolutely understand why they haven't released that information (and not from a Mod perspective)- look at the rampant speculation about everything that goes on.

If they gave the numbers, people would start counting the STEP tickets posted here (or on facebook, or where-ever) and then start complaining that enough tickets weren't being put in to it, or that they should have gotten one already, or that the BMorg obviously skewed the numbers for their friends, or maybe even a fresh new conspiracy- without taking into consideration that not everyone who is in STEP posts anywhere that most people will see it. You still wouldn't have a way to track where you actually were in the queue, and it would take away the glimmer of hope that people are clinging to with the community-created use of timestamps.

The only information that would be of use is an exact number with your place in the queue, but you would still have to hope that enough people were posting somewhere public to keep track of those, and you would have to take the risks that trying to apply the infrastructure to do that would cause with the known issues any mass log-ins cause to a system.


Those are valid concerns, but I think trying to control public response has caused a lot more confusion than just being totally transparent might have done. Plus, you gain even more trust from us lowly burners. Like I said, I got a warm fuzzy feeling for the National Park Service when checking out that page.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby lemur » Thu Apr 12, 2012 8:53 am

they dont need our trust.. people just want a ticket.. transparency be damned

i may not be the only one who noticed how quickly the birds from some certain parts of our community stopped squawking when they knew theyd get a chance at the 10,000 open sale tickets...

and it seems to have worked out nicely for most people.. of course, some wont get to go..

but.. most people just want to go.. and transparency doesnt amount to much more than a hill of beans if they get a ticket.

i honestly dont care how the process works so long as i get a ticket.

killed a mountain worth of cats and hamsters to get me that ticket? i dont care.. lied/cheated/distorted the truth? dont care either... just wanta go to burning man... transparency wont change my chances.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby Ugly Dougly » Thu Apr 12, 2012 8:55 am

Half dome was better last year. :mrgreen:

I can't believe you missed that. :roll:
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby Simon of the Playa » Thu Apr 12, 2012 8:58 am

lemur wrote:they dont need our trust.. people just want a ticket.. transparency be damned

i may not be the only one who noticed how quickly the birds from some certain parts of our community stopped squawking when they knew theyd get a chance at the 10,000 open sale tickets...

and it seems to have worked out nicely for most people.. of course, some wont get to go..

but.. most people just want to go.. and transparency doesnt amount to much more than a hill of beans if they get a ticket.

i honestly dont care how the process works so long as i get a ticket.

killed a mountain worth of cats and hamsters to get me that ticket? i dont care.. lied/cheated/distorted the truth? dont care either... just wanta go to burning man... transparency wont change my chances.



hear, hear...

lemur, you are observant....dont get sucked into this negative nelly's obtuse whining about seeming esoterica...

vargaso, Seriously?

feh.feh, and meh.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby vargaso » Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:02 am

Simon of the Playa wrote:
lemur wrote:they dont need our trust.. people just want a ticket.. transparency be damned

i may not be the only one who noticed how quickly the birds from some certain parts of our community stopped squawking when they knew theyd get a chance at the 10,000 open sale tickets...

and it seems to have worked out nicely for most people.. of course, some wont get to go..

but.. most people just want to go.. and transparency doesnt amount to much more than a hill of beans if they get a ticket.

i honestly dont care how the process works so long as i get a ticket.

killed a mountain worth of cats and hamsters to get me that ticket? i dont care.. lied/cheated/distorted the truth? dont care either... just wanta go to burning man... transparency wont change my chances.


hear, hear...

lemur, you are observant....dont get sucked into this negative nelly's obtuse whining about seeming esoterica...

vargaso, Seriously?

feh.feh, and meh.



Pretty sure I wasn't whining, just pointing out how another organization handled a similar lottery and suggested BM might benefit from...oh right, right, I forgot. Party line. Sorry, my bad.
Last edited by vargaso on Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby vargaso » Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:03 am

Simon of the Playa wrote:
lemur wrote:they dont need our trust.. people just want a ticket.. transparency be damned

i may not be the only one who noticed how quickly the birds from some certain parts of our community stopped squawking when they knew theyd get a chance at the 10,000 open sale tickets...

and it seems to have worked out nicely for most people.. of course, some wont get to go..

but.. most people just want to go.. and transparency doesnt amount to much more than a hill of beans if they get a ticket.

i honestly dont care how the process works so long as i get a ticket.

killed a mountain worth of cats and hamsters to get me that ticket? i dont care.. lied/cheated/distorted the truth? dont care either... just wanta go to burning man... transparency wont change my chances.


hear, hear...

lemur, you are observant....dont get sucked into this negative nelly's obtuse whining about seeming esoterica...

vargaso, Seriously?

feh.feh, and meh.


Sorry, double post.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby Simon of the Playa » Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:12 am

not party line you simpering fool, logic, reason and a notion that the borg isnt some slightly sinister entity bent on ruining your fucking Burning Man "Experience"...



you got beat up alot as a kid, didn't you.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby remi » Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:16 am

vargaso wrote:Those are valid concerns, but I think trying to control public response has caused a lot more confusion than just being totally transparent might have done. Plus, you gain even more trust from us lowly burners. Like I said, I got a warm fuzzy feeling for the National Park Service when checking out that page.


I must agree with Vargaso. I think the fact the BMOrg doesn't share any information kinda makes it look shady. Why did mostly everyone get a 420$ presale? Did 10,000 people apply and BMOrg just wanted more money so they sold more? I doubt it, but seeing the raw data put into graphs would definitely make me feel like this is being run by professionals, however, the feeling I got was that it was slapped together and we're just all holding on for the ride (with blindfolds on.)

Big ups to the Half Dome Lottery people.

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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby Simon of the Playa » Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am

please, there is a rumor thread that you can post this shit on...


ps...Nambla the clown is a CIA field agent.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby vargaso » Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am

Simon of the Playa wrote:not party line you simpering fool, logic, reason and a notion that the borg isnt some slightly sinister entity bent on ruining your fucking Burning Man "Experience"...



you got beat up alot as a kid, didn't you.


I don't think the BMORG is sinister, it's full of hard-working people, many of them volunteers. To suggest an idea that might possibly improve communication around ticketing does not automatically connote distrust. Offering suggestions is how things improve and it's how people work together. But then, a rogue like yourself has no time for such things, gets in the way of swashbuckling or something.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby theCryptofishist » Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:31 am

My guess is that there is no amount of transparency that will keep people who are going to think that they printed up extra $420 tickets, from thinking they printed up more $420 tickets.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby Simon of the Playa » Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:45 am

Vargaso said...
although I won't hold my breath given their track record with releasing this kind of info.




right, now run along and go fuck yourself, you bother me, kid.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby vargaso » Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:53 am

Simon of the Playa wrote:Vargaso said...
although I won't hold my breath given their track record with releasing this kind of info.




right, now run along and go fuck yourself, you bother me, kid.


Are you saying the BMORG has released this type of information before? No, I know what you're saying, that my statement of fact somehow means I think the BMORG is sinister and should not be trusted. Which of course is quite a leap. I trust the BMORG to do a lot of things. Releasing this type of info is simply not one of them, although I'd prefer they did. They have their reasons, which seem to be around managing public response, which is understandable but unwise, in my opinion.

When does the hallowed ad hominem rule get applied, anyway? Ha. Maybe you mean "fuck yer day," yes, that's very burny of you then, thanks.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby theCryptofishist » Thu Apr 12, 2012 10:08 am

vargaso wrote:No, I know what you're saying, that my statement of fact somehow means I think the BMORG is sinister and should not be trusted. Which of course is quite a leap.

I didn't read it at all that way. I read it to mean that we know the llc and they are going to continue to act as they have in the past, no point to wringing our hands over it. I find your statement to be quite the leap.


I suppose I should brace myself.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby Ratty » Thu Apr 12, 2012 10:12 am

This doesn't sit right with me. If you have a ticket , you probably got this email. [ticketholders-announce] Burning Man April 21st Participation Faire. It even has a pot-luck lunch upstairs at 1pm. OK. Only ticketed persons invited? I'm a bit scared of what might happen at this event. It's a great idea with info and volunteers (in a city full of angry burners trying to participate). Kind of nervy sending this out to 'ticketed participants'. I wouldn't miss it.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby vargaso » Thu Apr 12, 2012 10:14 am

theCryptofishist wrote:
vargaso wrote:No, I know what you're saying, that my statement of fact somehow means I think the BMORG is sinister and should not be trusted. Which of course is quite a leap.

I didn't read it at all that way. I read it to mean that we know the llc and they are going to continue to act as they have in the past, no point to wringing our hands over it. I find your statement to be quite the leap.


I suppose I should brace myself.


Well, I was directing my previous post to Simon, whom I think employed the Very Big Letters in an attempt to illustrate how I'm just a tinfoil hat wearing conspiracy theorist who thinks the BMORG is sinister. Anyway, this is getting silly, I should have known better than to make a reasoned suggestion on eplaya.
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Re: Half Dome lottery application statistics - a model for B

Postby H.G.Crosby » Thu Apr 12, 2012 10:15 am

im sorry but your half assed attempt at droll sarcasm has failed, epically...



now THATS sarcasm...
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