No, that's not correct.
- Having tickets in peoples' hands earlier will reduce supply. Price is driven predominantly by scarcity.
- Increasing the time span between purchase and sale of tickets means there is more opportunity for tickets to be exchanged through something like STEP.
- Peoples' plans may change over the next few months and they'll need to get rid of their tickets quickly.
- There is a greater risk in holding a long term asset with no guarantee of payoff, and the risk of cancellation. Imagine, for example, that BMOrg implements a policy that forces "paper" ticket holders of the lottery to choose owners for the tickets much like STEP tickets, or else they can only be released into the STEP pool of tickets. I would not be surprised if this ends up happening given the policy change-ups this year.
The last point, forcing ticket owners to designate owners, could end up being the end-game policy for tickets in coming years, granting the flexibility to "exchange" tickets to some degree for a specific time period before the tickets revert to basic "STEP" type tickets. Of course what happens when the primary ticket owner cannot go, but the "partner" can? That may end up as a loophole in the system.
"The essence of tyranny is not iron law. It is capricious law." -- Christopher Hitchens
Hate reading my replies? Click here
to add me to your plonk (foe) list.