Comparison to another first case of lottery.

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Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby Borris » Fri Feb 17, 2012 7:15 pm

Fusion festival in Germany have also Implemented a lottery system this year.
Fusion is a similar size festival that happens over a single weekend in Germany.
While it isn't s community content event (like BM) it has a very strong communal feeling and is run by a bunch of political socialists who believe in Radical self inclusion.
about 3 years ago their event has sold out for the first time, and this year they have decided to implement a lottery.
the main difference between their lottery and BM lottery is that they have allowed people to register as part of a group, during the registration process you could either set up your own group (and establish a user name and password for this group) or join and existing group (if you had the username and password for it given to you by the groups founder or member). During the lottery once one member of a group has won a ticket (only one ticket per person was allowed) the rest of the group was also awarded tickets. groups were limited to 50 people, all tickets were named and were non-transferable. I think that a partial implementation of this system would allow in the future theme camps to register as a group and be granted tix for the entire camp. there are ways (like non-transferable tix, using the STEP system to return tickets back to the BMorg) to prevent scalpers using this method to hoard tickets for themselves and to allow camps to be guaranteed tickets for their entire population.

I'd love to have this idea brought to BMorg when they start thinking of next year.

Discuss amongst yourselves.
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby Tiahaar » Sun Feb 19, 2012 3:00 am

I like it. Bonnarro is having some ticket issues this year also...
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby Stickygreen » Sun Feb 19, 2012 6:11 pm

this is an interesting concept, the Borg has shown it has a preference for established camps, maybe this is a way to include that preference in next years ticket sale.

Imagine also a risk/reward system figured out for large or small camps, weighting either side of the spectrum in favour of how the org want to see the event move forward.
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby SnowBlind » Sun Feb 19, 2012 10:53 pm

Borris wrote:During the lottery once one member of a group has won a ticket (only one ticket per person was allowed) the rest of the group was also awarded tickets.


If you do it like that then large groups will have a much bigger chance of getting selected than smaller groups. I think if each group had exactly one entry into the lottery it might be equal chances for everybody.
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby jkisha » Sun Feb 19, 2012 11:11 pm

This is the first suggestion I have read that makes sense to me. I like it.
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby quadraspleen » Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:58 am

This is much better..It also encourages the formation of groups..I like SnowBlind's idea of one entry per group, too..It has to be a level playing field in terms of odds or you'll just catch ePlaya on fire again and everyone will form mobs and kill small animals :twisted: :twisted:

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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby Borris » Mon Feb 20, 2012 5:17 pm

having a group count as one during the lottery makes the entire group more vulnerable on the lottery. there are other solutions.

Limit the groups to 25 people; have the lottery software be written that way that it takes into consideration the size of the group when calculating the odds of winning; or just make people understand that joining a group is proactive and people should form those (even if it's only for the ticketing process).

and yeah, mobs will be formed anyway, just because people will have to face the fact that even if they really really want to make it to the playa not everyone will be able to make it to the festival. and each and every participant is sure it's his right to be on the playa. this system doesn't improve personal chances but it does improve entire theme champ chances. on the other hand it makes other theme camps lose as a group.
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby SnowBlind » Tue Feb 21, 2012 3:40 pm

Borris wrote:having a group count as one during the lottery makes the entire group more vulnerable on the lottery.


How do you figure that?

Let's say 500 people enter the lottery. Half of them enter in groups of 25 people each, the other half enter solo.

You have 250 solo entries plus 10 groups, for a total of 260 entries into the lottery. The odds for the first ticket are 1/260 if you are in a group, and 1/260 if you are solo. Odds for further tickets are slightly more complicated to calculate, since the calculation changes if a group or an individual wins, but either way, the odds will always be the same for both groups. Or any group size in between.
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby zer0mass » Tue Feb 21, 2012 4:17 pm

I'm not sure that this idea would work for BM however I think that it is worth investigating. It does sound like it would help camps make sure that they get the tickets they need and still let individuals have a fair chance.
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby mshaman » Fri Feb 24, 2012 10:49 am

While the proposed lottery is less craptacular than the current lottery system, perhaps even solving some of the current system's more significant failings, I still prefer a first-come-first-serve deterministic system that avoids game theory/psychology. I think non-transferable/STEP-transferable tickets will solve much of this year's woe, especially when the gambling adrenaline of a lottery is taken out of the mix altogether.
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby Herring » Fri Feb 24, 2012 11:16 am

I think non-transferable non-returnable non-refundable tickets would be cool. You sign up for a ticket under your name and if you can't go that's a $300 donation you just made to the event. That way people would have to be damn sure of their plans and tickets would sell at a much slower rate. If you're not sure you can make it you have to wait to buy tickets closer to the event. If tickets are sold out by then at least you know they went to people who are really committed to going. It's a harsh system that won't ever happen but it would make me feel good.
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby Max Callahan » Fri Feb 24, 2012 12:41 pm

Herring wrote:I think non-transferable non-returnable non-refundable tickets would be cool. You sign up for a ticket under your name and if you can't go that's a $300 donation you just made to the event. That way people would have to be damn sure of their plans and tickets would sell at a much slower rate. If you're not sure you can make it you have to wait to buy tickets closer to the event. If tickets are sold out by then at least you know they went to people who are really committed to going. It's a harsh system that won't ever happen but it would make me feel good.


The big problem with non refundable tickets is that if someone legitimately can't go (work/illness/injury) then there is no way to get that ticket to person who actually would go.
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby vargaso » Fri Feb 24, 2012 12:46 pm

Max Callahan wrote:
Herring wrote:I think non-transferable non-returnable non-refundable tickets would be cool. You sign up for a ticket under your name and if you can't go that's a $300 donation you just made to the event. That way people would have to be damn sure of their plans and tickets would sell at a much slower rate. If you're not sure you can make it you have to wait to buy tickets closer to the event. If tickets are sold out by then at least you know they went to people who are really committed to going. It's a harsh system that won't ever happen but it would make me feel good.


The big problem with non refundable tickets is that if someone legitimately can't go (work/illness/injury) then there is no way to get that ticket to person who actually would go.


You could set a date, before which tickets could be returned to BMORG and put into STEP circulation, after which you get stuck with a $400 piece of paper. Plenty of activities that require tickets have this kind of policy. As for gifting, it would have to be planned gifting, as in you could purchase a ticket for someone else and put it in his/her name.
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby Eric » Fri Feb 24, 2012 12:58 pm

vargaso wrote:You could set a date, before which tickets could be returned to BMORG and put into STEP circulation, after which you get stuck with a $400 piece of paper. Plenty of activities that require tickets have this kind of policy. As for gifting, it would have to be planned gifting, as in you could purchase a ticket for someone else and put it in his/her name.


There would need to be a penalty to return it or it would still encourage "maybe's" to buy tickets- say a 20% cancellation fee. If you get a $390 ticket it would cost you $78 bucks if you didn't or couldn't go. There could be ways to make exceptions for death, death-in-family, and hospitalization, all requiring paper-work & proof.

While I have changed my mind on names on tickets (after many discussions with my camp-I was opposed to that before), I'm still undecided on non-refundable or how far to take it.

I like the "group entry" idea, but wonder if it shouldn't be limited to smaller "core" groups- say 10 people max. Unless you're a Mega Camp, 10 will cover you pretty well.

I'm also not sure first-come/ first-served will still work with our demand > supply problem. We'll get a better idea of that after this years event.
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby vargaso » Fri Feb 24, 2012 1:04 pm

Eric wrote:
vargaso wrote:You could set a date, before which tickets could be returned to BMORG and put into STEP circulation, after which you get stuck with a $400 piece of paper. Plenty of activities that require tickets have this kind of policy. As for gifting, it would have to be planned gifting, as in you could purchase a ticket for someone else and put it in his/her name.


There would need to be a penalty to return it or it would still encourage "maybe's" to buy tickets- say a 20% cancellation fee. If you get a $390 ticket it would cost you $78 bucks if you didn't or couldn't go. There could be ways to make exceptions for death, death-in-family, and hospitalization, all requiring paper-work & proof.

While I have changed my mind on names on tickets (after many discussions with my camp-I was opposed to that before), I'm still undecided on non-refundable or how far to take it.

I like the "group entry" idea, but wonder if it shouldn't be limited to smaller "core" groups- say 10 people max. Unless you're a Mega Camp, 10 will cover you pretty well.

I'm also not sure first-come/ first-served will still work with our demand > supply problem. We'll get a better idea of that after this years event.


You could set a couple dates, then, one a free return, one with a restocking fee, and the then final no going back date. That, coupled with printed pic on ticket, would GREATLY reduce both scalping and "maybes." It wouldn't eliminate them totally, nothing would, but then nothing is perfect. Perfect is the enemy of the good, as we say in the tech world.
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby Max Callahan » Fri Feb 24, 2012 1:12 pm

mshaman wrote:While the proposed lottery is less craptacular than the current lottery system, perhaps even solving some of the current system's more significant failings, I still prefer a first-come-first-serve deterministic system that avoids game theory/psychology. I think non-transferable/STEP-transferable tickets will solve much of this year's woe, especially when the gambling adrenaline of a lottery is taken out of the mix altogether.


I don't see how first come first serve avoids the game theory when the central question is "what is my best chance for getting a ticket".
First come first serve:
how many server connection attempts is the average user going to make? i need to make more than that to improve my chances to win.
how many connections can the server take before it explodes?
if i get lucky and i connect multiple times, how many tickets do i buy to help ensure my entire camp can go this year?

All the game theory comes about because demand exceeds supply, not because of the method of distributing tickets, the method just changes what the questions are (and can be improved over this year, oh hell yeah).

I'd also say that the adrenaline of this years lottery is nothing compared to the adrenaline of competing heads up with every other burner and scalper out there to try to connect with the ticketing server at the same time, and the slow play out of ticket emails this year was nothing compared to the roller coaster of watching your queue number bounce around last year.
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby vargaso » Fri Feb 24, 2012 1:16 pm

Max Callahan wrote:
mshaman wrote:While the proposed lottery is less craptacular than the current lottery system, perhaps even solving some of the current system's more significant failings, I still prefer a first-come-first-serve deterministic system that avoids game theory/psychology. I think non-transferable/STEP-transferable tickets will solve much of this year's woe, especially when the gambling adrenaline of a lottery is taken out of the mix altogether.


I don't see how first come first serve avoids the game theory when the central question is "what is my best chance for getting a ticket".
First come first serve:
how many server connection attempts is the average user going to make? i need to make more than that to improve my chances to win.
how many connections can the server take before it explodes?
if i get lucky and i connect multiple times, how many tickets do i buy to help ensure my entire camp can go this year?

All the game theory comes about because demand exceeds supply, not because of the method of distributing tickets, the method just changes what the questions are (and can be improved over this year, oh hell yeah).

I'd also say that the adrenaline of this years lottery is nothing compared to the adrenaline of competing heads up with every other burner and scalper out there to try to connect with the ticketing server at the same time, and the slow play out of ticket emails this year was nothing compared to the roller coaster of watching your queue number bounce around last year.


More intense but far shorter in duration. I'll take that. This year's lottery process dragged out the agony and the ecstasy (oonce oonce, ha) for weeks. I dont blame the BMORG, it's all new, just stating a preference. I'd rather have a couple hours of sweating it out, then either rejoicing or start Plan B immediately.
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby BBadger » Fri Feb 24, 2012 1:32 pm

Max Callahan wrote:I don't see how first come first serve avoids the game theory when the central question is "what is my best chance for getting a ticket".
First come first serve:
how many server connection attempts is the average user going to make? i need to make more than that to improve my chances to win.
how many connections can the server take before it explodes?
if i get lucky and i connect multiple times, how many tickets do i buy to help ensure my entire camp can go this year?


If the situation deteriorated too much, I could imagine "ticket sniper" services coming up like they have for eBay auctions.
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby theCryptofishist » Fri Feb 24, 2012 7:31 pm

I so don't want to do 1C1S.
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby mshaman » Sun Feb 26, 2012 11:45 am

Max Callahan wrote:I'd also say that the adrenaline of this years lottery is nothing compared to the adrenaline of competing heads up with every other burner and scalper out there to try to connect with the ticketing server at the same time, and the slow play out of ticket emails this year was nothing compared to the roller coaster of watching your queue number bounce around last year.


If the tickets are non-transferable, there is no competing with scalpers, and there is no attempting to get multiple connections for your camp-mates, unless you've got their names and credit card information, and are in real-time contact with them to see who gets to put a request in first.
Max Callahan wrote:The big problem with non refundable tickets is that if someone legitimately can't go (work/illness/injury) then there is no way to get that ticket to person who actually would go.


We don't complain about airline tickets, which are non-transferable, if we can't take the trip. It's the cost of doing business, it happens rarely (more rarely than scalpers buy transferable tickets), and is the lesser of the two evils in my mind.
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby Simon of the Playa » Sun Feb 26, 2012 12:11 pm

i know, lets waste our fucking time arguing over spilled milk, who spilled it, debate how we can keep the cats from licking it up and continue crying over the sight of it even though it does no one any good.


have fun with that.
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby theCryptofishist » Sun Feb 26, 2012 12:14 pm

Simon of the Playa wrote:i know, lets waste our fucking time arguing over spilled milk, who spilled it, debate how we can keep the cats from licking it up and continue crying over the sight of it even though it does no one any good.


have fun with that.

Cool!

When we get bored with tickets, let's do the thirty years war.
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby Simon of the Playa » Sun Feb 26, 2012 1:02 pm

it never really ended, you know.
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby Max Callahan » Sun Feb 26, 2012 1:29 pm

mshaman wrote:
Max Callahan wrote:I'd also say that the adrenaline of this years lottery is nothing compared to the adrenaline of competing heads up with every other burner and scalper out there to try to connect with the ticketing server at the same time, and the slow play out of ticket emails this year was nothing compared to the roller coaster of watching your queue number bounce around last year.


If the tickets are non-transferable, there is no competing with scalpers, and there is no attempting to get multiple connections for your camp-mates, unless you've got their names and credit card information, and are in real-time contact with them to see who gets to put a request in first.


Non transferable tickets wasn't the point, it was lottery vs FCFS. You could just as easily have non transferable lottery tickets as you could have non transferable first come first serve.
While non transferable helps a lot against scalpers, you have to get a lot more restrictive before you start being able to stop organized groups who know the names in advance.
You pretty much have to go to one ticket per person, and only for the name that is on the credit card being charged. If you can buy more than one ticket per card,and you allow for a name that not on the card you're open to group collusion, and you pretty much have to have these things. STEP tried to go to 1 ticket per person, and their was outrage, a lot of couples will no go unless both people have tickets, and to have a second person get a ticket you open it to having a name not on the card. So you don't need your camp mates card info, and being in realtime contact is nothing in this day of skype, netmeeting and ichat.

mshaman wrote:
Max Callahan wrote:The big problem with non refundable tickets is that if someone legitimately can't go (work/illness/injury) then there is no way to get that ticket to person who actually would go.


We don't complain about airline tickets, which are non-transferable, if we can't take the trip. It's the cost of doing business, it happens rarely (more rarely than scalpers buy transferable tickets), and is the lesser of the two evils in my mind.


This isn't about transferring tickets, it's about returnable tickets. The goal here is to get as many people on the playa as possible, and for that tickets have to be returnable to be redistributed via STEP, or else we have less people able to go than the playa will hold as tickets will get wasted.
Airlines can have non returnable tickets, because their goal is to make money, and they've made the money wether you fly or not, even better they can double dip and sell your spot to a standby if you no show. Burning man doesn't have a set takeoff time, and can't afford to have stand bys loitering at the gate for days so their tickets so they have to redistribute non going to be used tickets in advance.
Heck, even if you have non returnable tickets, someone who is willing to give $2000 to a scalper could just as easily put in for 5 tickets just for them self, and eat losing the money on the 4 that don't get used.

Really, the point I'm trying to get across is that once demand exceeds supply there is no longer a good way to distribute tickets, and that them having stuck with FCFS would not have made everything better this year. Once people start facing a real chance that they will not get to go, they will begin to behave badly. We can set up all sorts of rules to mitigate that behavior, but the only real way to eliminate it is to get supply back above demand somehow
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby mshaman » Sun Feb 26, 2012 5:34 pm

Max Callahan wrote:This isn't about transferring tickets, it's about returnable tickets. The goal here is to get as many people on the playa as possible, and for that tickets have to be returnable to be redistributed via STEP, or else we have less people able to go than the playa will hold as tickets will get wasted.
...

Really, the point I'm trying to get across is that once demand exceeds supply there is no longer a good way to distribute tickets, and that them having stuck with FCFS would not have made everything better this year. Once people start facing a real chance that they will not get to go, they will begin to behave badly. We can set up all sorts of rules to mitigate that behavior, but the only real way to eliminate it is to get supply back above demand somehow


These two points I can agree with... I don't see a solution on the supply/demand side without a) raising prices (ok with me, to some extent, but I'm sure that others would disapprove--it might really screw artists who tend to be lower earners than the corporate set) b)getting away from the Blackrock Desert.

I haven't heard much about a land search process for BM, but I'm guessing SOMETHING is going on there that will resume when they've stopped the hemorrhaging from this year's lottery. I'm also guessing that the well-entrenched San Fransisco contingent isn't eager to travel east toward big tracts of land in Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Utah, and Colorado, but there are some huge chunks of barren ground out there that aren't controlled by the BLM. Such locations would be geographically more "fair" if we're still paying homage to that notion, than something near the West Coast. I hope that the land search doesn't artificially limit itself out of a solution by clinging to SF proximity.
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby bradtem » Sun Feb 26, 2012 6:30 pm

Yes, airlines use non-refundable, non-transferable tickets, not that we like it. Though most of them allow you to change your reservation and use some of the money. Southwest lets you use all of it, other airlines hit you for fat change fees. They also sell fully-refundables for a lot more.

You could have a BM ticket that is non-refundable, but for which the cost could be applied to a ticket in a future year, and that would not leave people as entirely out of luck if some emergency left you unable to go. You can also purchase trip cancellation insurance from many suppliers that refunds your cost if you have a genuine covered problem, like illness or death in the family. These policies cover quite a bit of your expenses, actually, though of course like all insurance for low-cost items they are never a good buy except for the very poor.

However, I'm not sure things need to go as far as this. But it is true that if tix were non-refundable, non-returnable they might well not sell out, at least initially -- so no lottery or other rush needed. And in fact as the org learned how many people didn't come, it could, like the airlines, overbook the playa, and in turn make tickets cheaper for all.

I am very curious to know how many people entered at the $240 and $320 tiers. And further, how many of them knew that what they were saying with such an entry was, "If it costs more than this, I would be happier not going and keeping the money." And how many of them really were willing to pay more and assumed they could fix a loss in the secondary sale or aftermarket. What I am thus also seeking to know is what the market price would have been for the tickets if they had been sold in a uniform price auction. I am starting to think that price might have been $400 or less, perhaps even as low as $350. If that's true the lottery was a tragedy.
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby unjonharley » Sun Feb 26, 2012 7:43 pm

]
I would buy a non transfer/nonrefundable ticket to Burning Man.
If all the tickets were sold the same way/same price..

At this time I would not buy above 400 $.. In the future yes..
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby StevenGoodman » Mon Feb 27, 2012 1:30 pm

"We don't complain about airline tickets, which are non-transferable, if we can't take the trip. It's the cost of doing business, it happens rarely (more rarely than scalpers buy transferable tickets), and is the lesser of the two evils in my mind."

In the WAY BACK, when I worked at a Travel Agency tickets were transferable. It was a "Name Change". Is this no longer true? Just curious.

My question about non-transferable tickets, is how would I by on for a friend? Especially in January, when my friend might not know about getting time off? And then if I want to transfer that ticket to a different friend, who can go. And we are arriving in different vehicles?

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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby bradtem » Mon Feb 27, 2012 5:09 pm

Yup, they don't work in that sort of friend situation. You can build a ticket that has no face associated with it as long as the person comes in with you. (Or in theory if you will go back to the gate to get them but that's real hard to arrange on playa even if the SMS system were reliable.)

You could build tickets that can be transferred for a limited time, but if scalpers are the issue, the problem is that one of the prime scalping times is right after lottery results come out -- if you have a lottery of course.

In effect, having a lottery is one of the prime generators of scalping. A lottery produces a bunch of people who are really keen to go, but did not get a ticket in spite of their efforts. As such, they are very keen to get one and will pay a premium for it. This is also true to a lesser degree with first-come-first-served. While 1c1s does push you to make a special effort to be standing by live on your browser the moment tickets go on for sale, in many ways it is also a lottery of who timed their ticket requests right. And for those who tried at the magic time but failed, you generate these desperate people who will pay a high scalping premium.

The only system that doesn't generate desperate folks for scalpers is a market system, though all systems also run into the people who decide to go after the sell-out. They are, by definition, probably a little less desperate, though some of them are wealthy enough to pay premiums.
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Re: Comparison to another first case of lottery.

Postby vargaso » Thu Mar 01, 2012 4:32 pm

Just registered for a hike permit for Half Dome in Yosemite. Turns out, it's also a lottery, I had thought it was a first-come first-served thing. The permit is non-transferrable and the person registering needs to be present on the day of the hike and has to show ID. This is for an activity on public lands, which we all contribute financially to whether we use it or not via taxes. And I'm totally fine with that. My point is, if it's good enough for Yosemite, it's good enough for Burning Man. Here's hoping ALL of next year's tickets are non-transferrable and tied to an ID.
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