In another thread I pulled some numbers out of my ass, and it turned out those numbers were mostly shit. This numbers are probably shit also, but hopefully in a useful manure form.
Simple math says if 30% of people got tickets then there were 133,333 request and if 40% got tickets then there were 100,000 requests. Simple math isn't taking into account people trying under multiple names and scalpers.
A 30-40% fulfillment rate is up for debate, but it's what we have to work with, and is kinda seeming to hold up.
Lets say that on average people put in for 2 tickets when they needed one, lets also say there were 200,000 ticket requests (a number i reverse engineered) 4k tickets to 200k requests gives a 1 in 5 chance but, you get 2 of them. 2 chances at 1 in 5 gives us 9 people out of 25 getting tickets, or a 36% fulfillment rate, about what we are seeing, and than that 200,000 request means 100,000 people wanting tickets. (that 36% would have been 11,111 people if no one cheated, the more people cheat the lower the total number of people interested becomes, but is a very slow slope).
At this point, scalpers start to become almost a good thing, because they represent less people who want to go to burning man. For discussion, lets assume 25% of sales went to scalpers, scalpers aren't responding to "did you get tickets?" polls so the 30-40% success rate still holds and so does the 1in 5 success rate which means 30k tickets are in the hands of burners and thus 150,000 burner requests for tickets which gives us 75,000 people wanting to go to burning man. Tickets up for scalping seem very low right now, but the smart scalpers are probably waiting for the post march sale panic. A horrible best case scenario is 50% of tickets went to scalpers, as that give us only 50,000 real people wanting to go to the burn.
We may be in real trouble here, these numbers are all higher than the 70k attendees that the borg hopes to talk the blm into over the next few years.
This leads me to 2 unpopular thoughts. First STEP isn't going to save us, only 1 person in 25 gets extra tickets under this math, transfers to friends will eat those quickly. STEP is likely to only consist of tickets revoked form scalpers, and tickets the borg pulls out of their ass. Second, the lottery isn't to blame for you not getting tickets. The lottery is run in a stupid manner, and I can't imagine how the borg didn't see bad behavior and community splitting as the logical result, but imagine it's first come first serve and 100,000 people want 40,000 tickets, even if they ditched inticketing for ticketmaster to keep servers from imploding it's still going to be a huge clusterfuck, and still only 40% of people end up with tickets.