Believing that everyone, or that even the vast majority of people would put the whole of the Burning Man community ahead of themselves by only ordering the tickets that they absolutely needed is naive. Believing that Scalpers wouldn't be better at obtaining tickets than burners is naive. Believing that people won't buy from scalpers for an extra $500 when they've already spent $5000 on their art is naive. Believing that people will want to contribute as much to a theme camp or art project when they may not even be able to go is also naive.
While I didn't order more tickets than I needed, and I have made a commitment to myself not to buy from scalpers, the numbers have shown us that the people who were "good actors" were clearly overwhelmed by the people who were "bad actors". In fact I'm reluctant to even call them "bad actors" when really they were looking out for their own interests. As a whole, PEOPLE WILL PUT THEIR OWN INTERESTS FIRST. This is predictable. That this would cause a profound shortage due to scalping and hoarding was predictable. I wrote a letter of protest to BMOrg within 15 minutes of reading the JRS that announced the lottery, and predicted these very things, not because I'm smart, but because it was obvious. You can have a copy of the letter if you like.
If we see what history has shown us about the fact that people will act in their own interest, we can also predict that many, many tickets will be sold by scalpers outside of the STEP program, and that they will be bought by people who are more interested in going to the burn that they've planned their vacation time for, than they are boycotting scalpers and hoarders. The system will have rewarded all three "bad actions" of scalping, hoarding, and buying from scalpers.
In fact many of us predicted these problems. We wrote letters. We posted social media. But it was too late. The call had been made, some would say capriciously, some would say naively, and no community member was going to change it for this year.
But we can change it for next year. I am a long-time burner who had been avoiding eplaya and all sorts of other groups due to politics; I just wanted to build my camp ($50k and growing), bring my art, and enjoy. But when an individual is harmed (even if unintentionally), an activist is born. So I will lobby consistently and rationally on this board and every other means at my disposal until I see things get better. I will remind decision-makers publicly and vocally that self-interest will undermine group interest if they are not aligned, and that policy is how to align them. By that measure, the ticket lottery as implemented this year is a poor policy. BMOrg, I will see you in every venue, reminding you of this patiently, until you fix it with something that isn't so naive.
The road of life is littered with flat squirrels who couldn't decide.