stinkyfoot wrote:Eric wrote:We know that 1/3 of people who requested tickets got tickets.

The average ticket request was 1.7 per person.

And there were 40,000 tickets available.

If x= people who applied for tickets

and If y= people who got tickets

Then y*1.7=40,000 so y=23,529

so the number of people who got tickets is 23,529

and y/x= 0.33

so x=23,529/0.33

then solve for x=71,300

so that means that roughly 71,300 people wanted to go to Burning Man in January and requested tickets in the lottery.

The biggest problem with the logic here is the assumption that ALL the tickets went to people that wanted to go. We don't know that. The 1.7 figure just tells us that most people asked for 2 tickets. If the success rate was 30% then there were 133,000 or so requests for tickets. The ~70,000 figure is just the number of individual orders made for tickets of any quantity which does NOT tell you how many individuals wanted to go. It doesn't take into account folks that were buying tickets for themselves and another person, you've factored them out by dividing by 1.7. It doesn't take into account people who were waiting till later to buy tickets. I know we had at least 4 members of our camp last year that heard us talking about burning man and decided to go in the summer and bought tickets then. So, the 71,300 number would mean 71,300 individuals ordered tickets intending to go AND on average 58% of them ordered an extra they didn't need for themselves AND absolutely everyone that would want to go to the burn this year ordered early. Of course, you would be right to point out that we also have to factor in people that ordered WAY more than they needed. I can only speak to my group, but no one in our group ordered more tickets than they needed. I have less exact figures from other groups, because I KNOW the count for our group, I could beat the tickets out of them if I had to, but we aren't seeing any camps that have any quantities of extras. What does that mean? It means that the 71,300 figure is the absolute lowest number of people that would be mathematically possible to derive from the numbers we have that wanted to go to the burn, ordered early, and when 2 tickets were ordered the second was extra. So assuming a negligible amount of tickets went to scalpers, that would mean somewhere between 71,300 as an absolutely lowest and 133,000 absolutely highest amount of people wanted to get tickets 9 months early for an event that has had 53,963 attendees last year and the largest growth rate any year of 5%. That would mean that somewhere between 30% and 240% more people than attended last year wanted to buy a ticket for the event NOW. Again, these figures are all with the assumption that only an insignificant amount of tickets were bought speculatively. Which, if that were really the case, you see what an absurd amount of growth that would imply. Whether it is scalpers or people hedging their bets, it should be pretty clear that amount of requests for tickets is far greater than what we could possibly imagine actually want to go.