Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby unjonharley » Sun Feb 05, 2012 12:57 pm

Kernul Killbuck wrote:The 1% got them?


So occupy is out in the cold??
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby Dr Dilemma » Sun Feb 05, 2012 3:04 pm

Mitch wrote:
BeachBum wrote:
Mitch, what is the data from your theme camp? What bids, what percent of entries in each tier were wins?
Our data is approximately: $390 - 7 of 8, $320 - 4 for 6, $240 1 for 7




I'm checking, it's a bit hard to do, we're one of the most dispersed camps, so it takes a while to gather the info.

I know we were 4/4 in the $420 sale, and that we were 1/1 at $320 and 2/2 at $240 (!) and then I think we went 6/14 in the $390 sale -- with 2 winning at $240, but I don't know for sure that all of those WERE at $390, except that nobody who lost said they weren't. I'll post again when I have solid data, and there are still about 20 people I haven't heard from.

So very generally, our experience is the same as yours. If it turns out that thousands of Burners bid at $240, then that explains things, but I should think many camps would have looked at it as you and we did.


It's good to see some camps did better than we did. I'm not sure what amounts folks bid at, but we got 5 out of 30 for our small camp. I am on lists for some other camps and the success rate seems to be 20-40%. You guys are exactly right that folks that put in for the highest tier had a MUCH better chance to get tickets as they did the $390 tickets first with just the folks that bid $390, then they did the $320 with everyone that bid at least that AND the $390 folks that didn't get a ticket then they did the $240 again with everyone from the last 2 rounds that didn't get a ticket. So if you bid just $240 you were really SOL. Considering the cheapest tier always goes really quick, it shouldn't have surprised anyone that all of those would go so you were best to bid higher. The second tier went pretty quickly last year too, but the highest tier were available well into the summer.

What should really happen now is an request to camp leaders via the placement mailing list to get some good numbers on how camps were effected. Remember - it's the theme camps that were hit the hardest. Funded art projects, essential services (think medical, recycle camp, BMIR, etc.) and things like fire conclave all have not just discounted staff tickets - but more importantly this year, guaranteed tickets. Of course something to remember is that even folks that do have tickets have started to think that this is the year to take off as the reality of the situation sinks in.
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby graidawg » Sun Feb 05, 2012 3:35 pm

Savannah wrote:
Poorly Planned Shirtcocking

* Nightshirt just too damned long
* Finding yourself bottomless in a vest (rookie mistake)
* Shirt suddenly ripped away in driveby by DPW knaves
* Falling facefirst in obscuring playa mud before having a chance to parade
* Padlocked into jeans during sleep by asshole campmates
* Counting on breakaway stripper pants that don't actually breakaway, leaving you there in both a shirt and trousers (humiliating)


*taking notes to ensure a better quality of shirtcocking this time*

does it count if you have a dress on thats a bit short or is that dresscocking?
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby doublenn » Sun Feb 05, 2012 3:54 pm

Ban luxury motorhomes, pray for dust, or petition the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to relax the 50,000 burner maximum.
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby Mitch » Sun Feb 05, 2012 4:04 pm

Mitch wrote:I know we were 4/4 in the $420 sale, and that we were 1/1 at $320 and 2/2 at $240 (!) and then I think we went 6/14 in the $390 sale -- with 2 winning at $240, but I don't know for sure that all of those WERE at $390, except that nobody who lost said they weren't. I'll post again when I have solid data, and there are still about 20 people I haven't heard from.


Update:

4/4 @ $420

6/16 @ $390 (all awarded @ $390)

1/1 @ $320

2/4 @ $240

Remains a pretty small sample size. Still collecting info.
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby The CO » Sun Feb 05, 2012 5:35 pm

doublenn wrote:Ban luxury motorhomes


Fuck off until you've introduced yourself. That's your first post?
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby International Incident » Sun Feb 05, 2012 5:52 pm

The CO wrote:
doublenn wrote:Ban luxury motorhomes


Fuck off until you've introduced yourself. That's your first post?


he he!

I'm loving (not) the blamestorm,

"Hands doublenn another glass of whine"

I've never understoof the RV culture of the USA - but it is such a part of your culture I don't think you can take it away. Plus, when the rains, storms and locust plagues come to smite us this year (as we know they will) I'll be glad to run and hide away from my little 2 man tent in someone's RV (read Doc Pyro's RV).
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby theCryptofishist » Sun Feb 05, 2012 6:27 pm

doublenn wrote:Ban luxury motorhomes, pray for dust, or petition the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to relax the 50,000 burner maximum.

What the CO said!

And can we ask you to be BLM's bitch in our secret deal to get the permit variance?
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby JStep » Sun Feb 05, 2012 7:33 pm

funkyjigsaw wrote:Just posted this on FB ... for what it's worth ...

3. Theme Camps / Art Projects - not getting enough tickets for critical mass. Now this is a problem that NOBODY saw coming!


Ahem, I beg to differ! This was my first and main concern from the word go and I was soundly mocked for it.
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby A-RockLeFrench » Sun Feb 05, 2012 8:45 pm

JStep wrote:
funkyjigsaw wrote:Just posted this on FB ... for what it's worth ...

3. Theme Camps / Art Projects - not getting enough tickets for critical mass. Now this is a problem that NOBODY saw coming!


Ahem, I beg to differ! This was my first and main concern from the word go and I was soundly mocked for it.


And you will continue to be mocked for it. It's what you deserve for being a nay-sayer. Shut up and drink the kool-aide.
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby BeachBum » Mon Feb 06, 2012 4:05 am

BTW Mitch, KestrelSF,

In the end it really doesn't matter what percentages win, so many of our good friends aren't going to make it to the playa this year. Sad. Previous posts on this thread, including KetrelSF's, were curious on how many entries to the lottery there were in order to get a better feel of how many scalpers and speculators there are, since the data hasn't been released by the BMORG. The data needs to be calculated per tier, and since NEARLY ALL tickets were issued for max price one bid, it can be calculated per tier with some minimal sampling.

I like a dominant theme on less trolled sites that the way to help this year's fiasco and get more tickets into the hands of Burning Man Community participants, rather than scalpers and spectators, is to require tickets to be registered to a name this year, within a month or so. Some lawyer types on another site said that's doable. STEP might actually work if that was done. And then get them issued to participants in our community.

BeachBum wrote:The estimates of how many lottery entrants, based on the probability of them getting tickets, need to be calculated per tier, not overall. From our own camp's results and what's been posted in the more reliable, minimally trolled threads, and considering that people who got tickets at lower than their max price was extremely low:

$390 - 70-80% got tickets - 15,000 tickets - about 22,000 tickets were requested
$320 - somewhere around 50% got tickets - 15,000 tickets - about 30,000 tickets were requested
$240 - jack got tickets, significantly less than 10% - 10,000 tickets - well over 100,000 tickets were requested

The only solution for 2013 is one price tier, non-transferable tickets tied to your name, and distribute tickets to good theme camps/mutant vehicle owners/artists/... prior to a lottery.


Mitch, also, on your data, i think some of your camp mates who said they bid at $390 really didn't, there may have been some confusion between what's tier 1 and what's tier 3 or something.

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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby funkyjigsaw » Mon Feb 06, 2012 6:23 am

JStep wrote:
funkyjigsaw wrote:Just posted this on FB ... for what it's worth ...

3. Theme Camps / Art Projects - not getting enough tickets for critical mass. Now this is a problem that NOBODY saw coming!


Ahem, I beg to differ! This was my first and main concern from the word go and I was soundly mocked for it.


@JStep :
I stand corrected! My apologies. Your posts are the first I've seen of the current situation being raised back in the Nov/Dec timeframe.
So I amend my post to say something like : "JStep was the only one saw it coming, but everyone ignored him!"
Respect ...
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby Mitch » Mon Feb 06, 2012 8:11 am

BeachBum wrote:Mitch, also, on your data, i think some of your camp mates who said they bid at $390 really didn't, there may have been some confusion between what's tier 1 and what's tier 3 or something.

Beach Bum


Hi BB,

Indeed, they may have communicated what they did incorrectly or may have bid differently than they thought. It WAS confusing. Also, our camp is small and may not be representative.

I think there is value in trying to figure out exactly what happened, mainly to determine the number of scalpers. I don't care, and I'm pretty sure the Bmorg doesn't care, if Newbies overwhelmed the ticketing, and who is to say if that's a bad thing? (It's a bad thing for theme camps, but if the result is to spread Burner culture by inspiring the camps to do something else that week, that could work out and could be what they want).

In the way of forcing the Bmorg to be more transparent, I think it is a good thing that intelligent observers post their (rational) opinions and statistics. If we get it right -- the 33% figure seems to be -- that will make their resistance seem futile. If we get it wrong, maybe they'll feel the need to correct us and then we'll have better information with which to make our plans.
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby Dr Dilemma » Mon Feb 06, 2012 8:31 am

Good analysis Beach Bum. I think a lot of people bid at $320 making the assumption there would be plenty of the top tier tickets left considering they didn't run out until July last year. If you didn't have scalpers in the equation there would have been plenty. There is a certain number of people who buy early, generally core folks from a lot of camps.

BeachBum wrote:The only solution for 2013 is one price tier, non-transferable tickets tied to your name, and distribute tickets to good theme camps/mutant vehicle owners/artists/... prior to a lottery.


I believe you've summed up the consensus that has been reached by most groups. The question is will the BMorg hear it. They seem to have taken a head in the sand approach. Things weren't made any better with halcyons video which tries to make the absurd claim that the 170,000 requests for tickets could be explained by new interest because burning man is just so awesome. I mean I liked the "places you'll go" video too, but I don't think anyone could really believe it made 300% more people want to go this year when the biggest growth has never been above around 5%.

What we'll find out this year is how important theme camps/mutant vehicles/artists are to the community. Remember that groups like rangers, fire conclave, funded artists, some center camp groups like recycle camp, essential services like medical tent folks, etc all have staff tickets which are guaranteed. It's really just theme camps, smaller or "unofficial" art projects that aren't already assured they will be able to make it. Perhaps part of the reason the BMorg is not too worried. If one wanted to be all conspiracy theory like, one could postulate that some folks would be happy to see the sound camps not make it this year.
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby The CO » Mon Feb 06, 2012 10:47 am

KestrelSF wrote:I think a lot of people bid at $320 making the assumption there would be plenty of the top tier tickets left considering they didn't run out until July last year.


You know what they say about assumptions, right?

Something about an ass and the mother of all fuck-ups.
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby curiousjosh » Mon Feb 06, 2012 5:13 pm

[quote="trilobyte"] It's difficult to say with certainty whether that's because not many scalpers got tickets, or it's because most scalpers have chosen not to list their tickets yet (either because they do not want to sell a ticket they won't have until June, or they would prefer to wait for peoples' panic to die down… [/quote]


Hi Trilo! :)

Let's put Scaplers/speculators in the same boat.

ie. people who have no intent of attending and people who buy 2 tickets, one for themselves, and a second to resell at a profit.

Why would we expect either of these people to sell their ticket until the tickets arrive in their mail?
also, what makes us think the scalpers are waiting for people's panic to die down? Heck, the conventional thinking would be... this is 8 months away... the prices are going to go up on a sell out event, not down.

I guess I'm just saying... I don't think the lack of stub hub tickets for an event where tickets have not been delivered can be considered strong information in determining if scalping is prevalent (and yes, I'm considering people who purchase tickets to sell one as amateur scalpers
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby curiousjosh » Mon Feb 06, 2012 5:20 pm

[quote="Key Man"]

I agree, but also want to point out that the scalpers (actually I say "speculators" because I think most are individual players) won't be listing tickets on ebay and other venues now for the simple reason that they don't yet have the tickets in hand! It's pretty hard to tell a buyer "give me $1500 cash now, and I'll mail your 2 tickets in June", especially if you're a no-name, individual punter. Buyers won't go for that, too many things can go wrong. The sellers know they need to wait, and that prices will probably go up anyway.

The speculators won't show their hands until their hands are holding tickets.[/quote]


Well said... I should have read the whole thread first...
This is exactly what I was trying to say, and is probably a great assessment.

I wish everyone who wanted to go to the burn was willing to not take a profit. I found and resold 4 tickets for friends last year without a markup, but was sad to find many people who I knew who had only been one or two years saw nothing wrong with paying extra, or selling tickets at a profit that they had.
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby Savannah » Mon Feb 06, 2012 5:52 pm

For effective quotes and other tags = User Control Panel --> Board Preferences --> Edit Posting Defaults --> Enable BBCode --> Submit.
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby 5280MeV » Mon Feb 06, 2012 6:03 pm

I wish people would stop relying on the fact that the last seven years have resulted in 6% growth on average as some sort of an accurate predictor of future growth.

The problem with this assertion is that it is the result of a simple curve fit. I have seen no argument appealing to the underlying economic or social dynamics that would explain why BM should grow at a rate of 6% per year on average. If you look at the previous seven years, there is about 20% growth. If you look at the seven years before that, growth averages about 90% per year!

If one did not know the 2007 population of BRC, it would be reasonable to use data from 2004, 2005, 2009, and so on, and interpolate using the 6% figure to estimate the population between known years. It is not safe to use the 6% figure to estimate the population outside the known range.

I don't think that anyone can accurately predict or even ballpark the number of people seriously trying to go to Burning Man in 2012. If you can predict such things, then you are well on your way to be the next Warren Buffet, in which case you can just buy the Black Rock Desert and get us all tickets.
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby gyre » Mon Feb 06, 2012 6:29 pm

Have you applied the burning man standard deviation to the curve?
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby Dr Dilemma » Mon Feb 06, 2012 6:33 pm

5280MeV wrote:I wish people would stop relying on the fact that the last seven years have resulted in 6% growth on average as some sort of an accurate predictor of future growth.

The problem with this assertion is that it is the result of a simple curve fit. I have seen no argument appealing to the underlying economic or social dynamics that would explain why BM should grow at a rate of 6% per year on average. If you look at the previous seven years, there is about 20% growth. If you look at the seven years before that, growth averages about 90% per year!

If one did not know the 2007 population of BRC, it would be reasonable to use data from 2004, 2005, 2009, and so on, and interpolate using the 6% figure to estimate the population between known years. It is not safe to use the 6% figure to estimate the population outside the known range.

I don't think that anyone can accurately predict or even ballpark the number of people seriously trying to go to Burning Man in 2012. If you can predict such things, then you are well on your way to be the next Warren Buffet, in which case you can just buy the Black Rock Desert and get us all tickets.


I'll agree that the growth curve could be much higher this year ... but we are talking the difference between 5% and 300%... 55,000 tickets vs 170,000 requests. I don't think you can justify anywhere near 170,000 actual participants wanting tickets no matter how you look at it.
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby 5280MeV » Mon Feb 06, 2012 7:42 pm

KestrelSF wrote:I'll agree that the growth curve could be much higher this year ... but we are talking the difference between 5% and 300%... 55,000 tickets vs 170,000 requests. I don't think you can justify anywhere near 170,000 actual participants wanting tickets no matter how you look at it.


I agree that 170,000 people seems pretty far fetched. My official stance is I dunno, but just to give another scenario:

There could have been 50,000 requests for Tier-1, 50,000 for Tier-2, and 40,000 for Tier-3. The Tier-1 requests would have a 7% chance of success. The Tier-2 requests would have a 22% chance of success. The Tier-3 requests would have an 65% chance of success. Then the average chance of success is about 29%.

So that is 140,000 requests, but there were a lot of burners who registered for 2 and needed one. So the average number of ticket requests per actual burner may have been 1.5. There were certainly some scalpers, lets say 15% of requests were scalpers. Then there were just 126,000 requests from burners corresponding to about 79,000 actual burners, virgin or otherwise.

These numbers are all made up with no justification, and I don't trust them for a second, but I think that it is much easier to come up with a reasonable explanation if you make a cocktail with the following ingredients:

- A growth rate significantly higher than 6% (maybe 20-40%)
- Multiple tickets for single burners
- Some scalper activity, particularly at the lower tiers
- The fact that there are effectively only 3000-5000 tickets to be distributed to all the people who asked for Tier-1 only, since everyone is in the Tier-1 drawing. It appears to be a stereotype that theme campers are rich and can all spring for presale tickets.

Again, I don't think that I really know anything, but if I was forced to place a bet I would bet that a little bit of everything contributed to the situation.
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby chickendinner » Mon Feb 06, 2012 9:49 pm

Who is to say scalpers don't have a positive effect on the event? Higher prices will make it so that only those who REALLY want to go will save and scrounge for a ticket. Either that or rich people will come and bring more fancy expensive toys. Also it will help keep out some of the riff-raff...
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby JStep » Mon Feb 06, 2012 10:07 pm

funkyjigsaw wrote:So I amend my post to say something like : "JStep was the only one saw it coming, but everyone ignored him!"
Respect ...


Sweet, sweet justice...

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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby Eric » Mon Feb 06, 2012 10:10 pm

5280MeV wrote:
KestrelSF wrote:I'll agree that the growth curve could be much higher this year ... but we are talking the difference between 5% and 300%... 55,000 tickets vs 170,000 requests. I don't think you can justify anywhere near 170,000 actual participants wanting tickets no matter how you look at it.


I agree that 170,000 people seems pretty far fetched. My official stance is I dunno, but just to give another scenario:

There could have been 50,000 requests for Tier-1, 50,000 for Tier-2, and 40,000 for Tier-3. The Tier-1 requests would have a 7% chance of success. The Tier-2 requests would have a 22% chance of success. The Tier-3 requests would have an 65% chance of success. Then the average chance of success is about 29%.


My take, based on numbers that have been released: 1.7 tickets were requested average per transaction, there were way more transactions than the LLC expected, and the success rate seems to be about 30%.

40,000 tickets times 3 (only 1/3 success rate)= 120,000 requests.
40,000 tickets times 1.7= 68,000 requests.

With what we do know I'd guess between 68,000-120,000 requests, total. I'm not going to try to parse tiers because we have been given zero information that would let us do that. This is of course a wild guess, because without knowing the hard number of requests made there is simply no way to know.

68,000 would be roughly on trend for the historical curve if we hadn't been capped last year; 120,000 wouldn't be unbelievable now that the event has crossed the tipping point with the general public.

Any scalpers & hoarders are included in this estimate.

Again, just basing it on the information we sort of know.
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby FandangoLiz » Mon Feb 06, 2012 10:33 pm

Think the idea that scalpers got the tickets is far-fetched?

Never fear, tickets are available here:
http://www.gotickets.com/concert/burning_man.php

here:
http://www.vividseats.com/concerts/burn ... 37313.html

here:
http://boxoffices.org/ResultsTicket.asp ... 6121&nid=1

here:
http://www.stubhub.com/burning-man-fest ... 2-4016620/

You get the idea? As I said before, you are dealing with professionals. Take a look at what else you can buy tickets for on these sites. It will give you a window into their business model.

I understand "saying no" to scalpers, but that is who has tickets for sale. You could buy a ticket to Burning Man right now. The going rate is anywhere between $700-$1500 apiece.

BMORG was heartily naive about the market reality of ticket brokers. You have every reason to be mad at them. This was their problem to solve and they sat on their hands instead of doing any creative thinking. It really sucks, and I am sorry this happened.
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby Eric » Mon Feb 06, 2012 11:40 pm

FandangoLiz wrote:I understand "saying no" to scalpers, but that is who has tickets for sale. You could buy a ticket to Burning Man right now. The going rate is anywhere between $700-$1500 apiece.


Yeah, but Liz, I'm not going to. If I can't get a ticket for face value I won't go. I'm not paying extra, it would feel wrong to me.

Do I want to go? Of course.

Do I need to go? Of course not. I've missed years before, it won't kill me if I don't make it this year. I still intend to try, but I'm not paying scalper prices. Like I said, I'll skip it rather than do that.

As for those tickets on those sites- there is no way to know if the person selling one even has a confirmation letter (they certainly don't have an actual ticket, no one does). Look at some of the listings on StubHub- they're saying you'll get your tickets in AUGUST (quite a few say August 24th- 3 days before Gate): in other words they don't have tickets to sell, they're planning on getting them in the secondary market or when it starts to crash right before the event & then get them to you. While I don't doubt that scalpers got some of the tickets, using the ticket resale sites as "proof" is a stretch.
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby Harinama » Tue Feb 07, 2012 9:03 am

I disagree completely. Sure, maybe .5% of the tickets went to scalpers willing to fork out up to $390/ticket. The rest went to excited long-timers and future birgins. BM got outrageous notoriety last year after selling out, and everyone and their mother wanted to go for 2012 with all of it's prophetic mystery.

Truth is, BM is bigger than us now, and we have to deal with that. It means that we will no longer be guaranteed a trip HOME each year. It means we may need to find a new "home".

How about we find a new home for BM? Some where with lots of space, multiple access highways, closer to washington (smile), that can accept all those that want to come? Maybe we have outgrown the playa..

In the end, BM must be inside of us, or we have learned nothing.
Harinama Das
"inner peace is but a universe away"
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby A Jester » Tue Feb 07, 2012 9:53 am

5280MeV wrote:
I don't think that anyone can accurately predict or even ballpark the number of people seriously trying to go to Burning Man in 2012. If you can predict such things, then you are well on your way to be the next Warren Buffet, in which case you can just buy the Black Rock Desert and get us all tickets.



So, those tiers we all know and err ... love served the purpose of letting us know how many people were going to show up. The faster a tier sells out, the more people will be at the event.

So... yeah. I think we're reasonably predicting "infinite" based on this years sales.
ZaphodBurner wrote:
The difference between buying a ticket from a scalper and prostituting yourself for one is, if you suck dick for a ticket and brag about it, burners will still respect you.
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Re: Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

Postby A Jester » Tue Feb 07, 2012 10:00 am

chickendinner wrote:Who is to say scalpers don't have a positive effect on the event? Higher prices will make it so that only those who REALLY want to go will save and scrounge for a ticket. Either that or rich people will come and bring more fancy expensive toys. Also it will help keep out some of the riff-raff...

Image
ZaphodBurner wrote:
The difference between buying a ticket from a scalper and prostituting yourself for one is, if you suck dick for a ticket and brag about it, burners will still respect you.
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