Here are the population projections I've made based on the currently available information regarding past permits, measured population levels, and the proposed 2012-2016 permit:
The permit allows 6% growth per year, compounded annually, which is an exponential function rather than a linear function. As you can see, the permit limits will be less than the projected linear growth for the coming years. If population increases linearly as it has in the past, we will actually have less people on the playa than the permit allows in 2016.
The real question will be how much over the permit level is BMorg allowed to sell tickets for? Is it the maximum population projected limit? Or is it based on the current projected growth rate? For instance, what happened in 2007 and 2008?
Also, last year was an odd year because it was a single-year permit, probably for just 50,000 people, not a larger projected amount. Was that the real cause of the sell-out?
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
"The essence of tyranny is not iron law. It is capricious law." -- Christopher Hitchens
Hate reading my replies? Click here
to add me to your plonk (foe) list.