Hope? Interesting find-

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Hope? Interesting find-

Postby tattoogoddess » Wed Feb 01, 2012 10:41 pm

Was reading this and it kinda caught me off gaurd. What do you think? I know the 70k was to hit in a few years but the way they write this makes it sound like they are trying to make it happen now. Maybe they just should have worded it better? What do you think?

http://sfappeal.com/news/2012/01/burnin ... supply.php

January 30, 2012 10:50 AM
"Burning Man's permits only allow for 50,000 people but the LLC is currently in negotiations with the US Bureau of Land Management to allow up to 70,000 folks to enjoy the playa"
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Re: Hope? Interesting find-

Postby LegendZero » Wed Feb 01, 2012 11:09 pm

I know nothing of the problems facing such a big increase in a short time but I had been wondering about that even before the results of the lottery because the org has to negotiate a new permit this year anyway.
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Re: Hope? Interesting find-

Postby tattoogoddess » Wed Feb 01, 2012 11:13 pm

maybe this will be the silver lining? 14,000 more tickets?

I just looked at this survey and out of the 150 who have taken it so far 70% of people did not get tickets. God I hope this is not accurate!
http://isopop.com/2012/02/01/burning-man-ticket-survey/
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Re: Hope? Interesting find-

Postby lemur » Thu Feb 02, 2012 12:53 am

if it is anything like in the PAST Black Rock City LLC is working with the BLM to get a multi-year agreement.. instead of year to year permits.

if the claim of negotiations for 70,000 is true, and it might not be.. it is very likely that they are following the model set in the previous five-year-agreement that allowed a rise to 50,000 people over a series of years (2006-2010)


odds are, in my opinion, that the BLM and Black Rock City LLC will have a multiyear agreement that allows for expansion of the population of a series of years.. in the past this expansion was about 6% each year on the previous five-year operating plan..

when you look at the numbers since around 2005 the average increase in attendance is about 5-6%.

that is in holding with previous BLM agreements and with the numbers of tickets see for sale.. 57,000 tickets for sale in 2012 is about a 5% increase from the population in 2011.

if that increase holds, getting to 70,000, with 6% increases on average each year.. would bring us to around 70000 in 2016.. this year it is 2012.. ..it would be very much like the scope the BLM and the Black Rock City LLC agreed to in the previous five year operating plan..

(and it should be noted that the numbers stipulated are for AVERAGE population numbers at the event site over a given period.. sometimes it might be more, sometimes it might be less...)

I would say... dont expect any more tickets to be sold than the 57,000 theyve already offered.. and certainly dont get your hopes up for 13,000 more tickets..
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Re: Hope? Interesting find-

Postby BBadger » Thu Feb 02, 2012 3:00 am

Here are the population projections I've made based on the currently available information regarding past permits, measured population levels, and the proposed 2012-2016 permit:

population_through_2016.png


The permit allows 6% growth per year, compounded annually, which is an exponential function rather than a linear function. As you can see, the permit limits will be less than the projected linear growth for the coming years. If population increases linearly as it has in the past, we will actually have less people on the playa than the permit allows in 2016.

The real question will be how much over the permit level is BMorg allowed to sell tickets for? Is it the maximum population projected limit? Or is it based on the current projected growth rate? For instance, what happened in 2007 and 2008?

Also, last year was an odd year because it was a single-year permit, probably for just 50,000 people, not a larger projected amount. Was that the real cause of the sell-out?
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Re: Hope? Interesting find-

Postby lemur » Thu Feb 02, 2012 4:57 am

the 6% growth figure was one that setup a situation where if it was to exceed that number Black Rock City LLC would be required to tell the BLM their contingency to account for the extra growth..

id imagine in the years where we exceeded that 6% during the last five-year-operating-plan the Black Rock City LLC had more than accounted for such growth in terms of infrastructure/safety/contingency preparedness to make the BLM say its OK! to continue..


so 6% wasnt so much as a hard limit (the 50,000 seemed to be) as much as an "if it goes above this, you better tell us how youre gonna make it happen" type thing

(and it surely was figured in to the next year, and how the LLC was able to handle such an extra burden of people.. and if the contract was to be continued.. etc..etc.)
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