Everyone buying too many tickets?

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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby joshuaj » Sat Jan 07, 2012 11:05 pm

Eric wrote:So stop thinking of it as a lottery, and think of it as a random draw for your tier.


Stop thinking of the Black Rock Desert as a desert, and think of it as a hot, dry, sandy place. I'm sorry, I really don't see a difference.

Eric wrote:Is there a chance more than 40k people will enter the main drawing? Yes, but absolutely NO ONE can say for sure because IT HASN'T HAPPENED YET.


You're stating the obvious. I think we all agree on this already. It's the possibility of the event, not the certainty, that we're worried about. More to the point, it's not even the possibility, but the incentives created by the possibility, that I'm worried about. You see the distinction?

The way the system is designed, IF there is a possibility of selling out (and you just acknowledged that there is), then there is an incentive for people to (in your words) "hoard" tickets, which further increases the possibility of selling out, which further increases the incentive. I'm saying: if the system were designed right, nobody would be hoarding tickets, because it wouldn't increase your chances of getting them! I don't understand what part of that you disagree with -- in fact, you haven't disagreed with any of it yet.

Eric wrote:Physical tickets do not get mailed out until June- if you "resell" before then you have to hope to find a buyer who will by them without you having anything physical to actually sell- basically they'll be buying on spec.


Hmm, that does make things much more difficult. That does, in fact, make me much less likely to request extra tickets. I honestly don't want to be that much of a dick, and I also don't want to be one of possibly (though, as we all agree, we don't know for sure) thousands of people trying to get rid of tickets at the last minute. However, now I'm even more upset by the way the lottery is designed, because the lottery really does incentivize total dickery, not just minor inconveniencing.

Eric wrote:And, yes, I would call someone who hoards an ass on the playa itself, just like I do here


And I think you're the exception, rather than the rule. I don't hear a lot of name-calling on the playa. Out there, when someone does something you think is inappropriate, most people explain rationally why they feel that behavior is inappropriate. Usually, this leads to the person actually changing their behavior. (Name-calling usually does not.)

Eric wrote:well, guess what, I'm entering for my one, confident I'll get it.


But... didn't you just say that they might sell out? Then how can you be "confident" that you'll get one? (In goofy Inigo Montoya voice: I do not think it means what you think it means.)

Eric wrote:If I don't, and I hear hoarders talking about the extras they got, you can sure as fuck be certain I won't be blaming the LLC for the fact I didn't get a ticket, and I bet a lot of other folks won't be blaming them either.


If the city I lived in banned locks on doors, and then I got robbed, I'd sure as heck blame the city, not just the robber who decided to take advantage of the city's crappy policy.

That's the one thing I don't understand: aren't you upset that the LLC is effectively giving people a good reason to screw you over by requesting extra tickets they don't need?

(And in fact, lots of people do blame the LLC for the fact that scalping is possible. I personally don't, because I appreciate the philosophical and logistical reasons for them to not track individual tickets, but if somebody else feels differently, I don't think they're wrong, they just have a different opinion, possibly on some very complex and subtle philosophical issues with wide-reaching implications. Which is not only ok, but actually inevitable. If they want to discuss it, that's fine. If they want to resort to name-calling, I'd rather leave. And yet, I'm still here... dammit.)
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby theCryptofishist » Sat Jan 07, 2012 11:11 pm

At this point in time, joshuaj, anyone getting in here and ranting about how buying more tickets than they need is the only rational response to the ticket system has the unfortunate effect of pushing more people into thinking they have to do it. Which will create the scarcity feared. Eric and the rest of the mods have been taking it on the chin for two months, and tempers are wearing thin. If you want to tease caged animals, I guess there's no one to stop you. But you can expect some snarls.

Not that Eric's really given you any, but you're beginning to look--oh, wait, name-calling.
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby Eric » Sat Jan 07, 2012 11:38 pm

joshuaj wrote:The way the system is designed, IF there is a possibility of selling out (and you just acknowledged that there is), then there is an incentive for people to (in your words) "hoard" tickets, which further increases the possibility of selling out, which further increases the incentive. I'm saying: if the system were designed right, nobody would be hoarding tickets, because it wouldn't increase your chances of getting them! I don't understand what part of that you disagree with -- in fact, you haven't disagreed with any of it yet.


There isn't the possibility of it selling out, it will probably sell out from now on (starting last year, actually). The LLC stated that clearly in the announcement about this system- they know some people may not get tickets, but the drawing is a way to give everyone as equal a chance as possible to get a ticket, and there are at least 50,000 tickets outside of the Low Income ones to go through.

There was a small number of people who didn't get tickets last year, but there were also scalpers standing outside Bruno's at the end of the week desperately trying to unload tickets. With the LLC setting up an in-house system to resell tickets, scalpers and people trying to bump up "aftermarket" tickets will find it a lot harder and Burners who didn't get a ticket will have more of a fair chance to get one of those without hoping someone has one at the Gate.

As for my confidence in getting one- no, I know exactly what the word means, I'm just one of those crazy optimists. Seriously- there's 40,000 tickets in the main drawing. 40 fucking thousand. Only 50ish thousand people even went last year. If people quit freaking and thinking about hoarding the vast majority will get tickets- far far more people will get them than don't, and quite possibly everyone who enters will get them (it all depends on the number of registrations).

That's the one thing I don't understand: aren't you upset that the LLC is effectively giving people a good reason to screw you over by requesting extra tickets they don't need?


The people are using the LLC as an excuse to screw others over- the LLC had nothing to do with it. As I said before- they can justify it all they want, bottom line is that anyone who hoards is fucking over another Burner. That will never be acceptable behavior in my book.
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby BBadger » Sun Jan 08, 2012 12:19 am

I do see that there will be hoarding as a direct consequence of the new lottery system, at least this year because of the "unknowns" in the equation. It is that way among myself and friends: we're overcompensating in terms of purchases, and betting that if in the event that we do have too many tickets they'll be easy to offload.

In the end, however, the result will be the same as if another burner had purchased the tickets. Any extra tickets will be sold off at face value to camp-mates or others at face value. I only think the "hoarding" is detrimental if it is used for scalping ends, and in that regard there's no real difference between this and previous years. There may be a side-effect that the distribution of tickets may favor groups of people with greater flexibility in purchase power, but can we really say that this is anything new? I don't think so.
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby 5280MeV » Sun Jan 08, 2012 7:22 am

joshuaj wrote:The way the system is designed, IF there is a possibility of selling out (and you just acknowledged that there is), then there is an incentive for people to (in your words) "hoard" tickets, which further increases the possibility of selling out, which further increases the incentive. I'm saying: if the system were designed right, nobody would be hoarding tickets, because it wouldn't increase your chances of getting them! I don't understand what part of that you disagree with -- in fact, you haven't disagreed with any of it yet.


It isn't the system design that encourages hoarding, it is the inherent scarcity of tickets that encourages hoarding.

In your system, your own strategy would still be hoarding, but you would be hoarding places in line rather than hoarding actual tickets. This allows mass line occupiers to nearly guarantee a low cost ticket at the detriment of those who do not game the system.

In the non-binding drawing, where there is no requirement to buy once your number comes up, there is nothing to stop me from recruiting five friends and family members to stand in line with me as sock puppets and each request two tickets, when we really only want one. In fact, if enough people are doing this, then everyone would feel obliged to do this (according to the same logic one uses to say that everyone will hoard in the current system).

So in such a non-binding system, a real demand of 40,000 tickets could easily balloon into 400,000 people standing in line. Even if the org calls 10,000 numbers at a time in only three-day purchase windows, it would take 120 days to run through all of the people in line, and so the main sale would not end until June. The org now has to administer a secure site with half a million user accounts for a good third of the year.

Same result as hoarding under the current system, participants get screwed until waiting for the summer to try to buy tickets.

Scarcity is the real problem, there are not enough tickets to go around!

There are certainly not enough $240 tickets to go around, there can't be, there won't be, we all have to pay an average of $325 for burning man to happen, or it won't happen. $325 is the dues that we all have to pay, but if you cannot pay your dues, you still have a shot at going, because some of us (not me!) just paid $420, and more of us (maybe me!) will pay $390. However, you simply cannot be guaranteed a spot if you cannot or will not pay your dues.


Please, please, please consider the following:

If you know a burner who can only do $240 , and want to help if he/she doesn't get one, enter the main sale at all tiers. If you get a $240 ticket, and he/she does not, then try to buy a $390 ticket in the secondary sale. Once you have your Tier-3 ticket, immediately sell your promised Tier-1 ticket to the burner in need.

This only works if you know each other well as you are selling a ticket promise, but it effectively doubles the chances of your friend getting to go, just like the Tier-1 hoarding strategy. You also don't have to worry about accidentally getting four tickets, and having to sit on them all spring.

I also would like to go to burning man in 2012.
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby trilobyte » Sun Jan 08, 2012 8:53 am

@joshuaj - sorry I'm not 'burner' enough to meet your standards, but I don't see hoarding to be as rampant an issue as you. Even if it were, I think the system as designed is a FAR better solution than what you suggested. And to your point about not understanding the difference between a lottery and a drawing, the mechanics are similar but the odds of winning/being chosen are vastly different. There are lots of lotteries and lotto games out there, and every single one of them has few winners and many losers - that's not the case here. 40,000 tickets will be available, which is 10K more than were sold last January. If people resisted the urge to hoard, then there will be plenty of tickets to go around.

@5280MeV - another option (to help other burners in need) is to just help them get their own ticket outright. If you're awarded tickets at a lower tier but you were willing to pay a higher price in order to help those with less means get a chance - help someone directly. We live in trying economic times, most of us have people in our circle of friends who couldn't afford more than the lowest tier and didn't get a ticket or may not have had the money together to participate in the main sale. When the secondary sale comes around, give them some money to enable them to buy a ticket in the open sale.
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby A Jester » Mon Jan 09, 2012 11:34 am

joshuaj wrote:
Eric wrote:And, yes, I would call someone who hoards an ass on the playa itself, just like I do here


And I think you're the exception, rather than the rule. I don't hear a lot of name-calling on the playa. Out there, when someone does something you think is inappropriate, most people explain rationally why they feel that behavior is inappropriate. Usually, this leads to the person actually changing their behavior. (Name-calling usually does not.)

That's the one thing I don't understand: aren't you upset that the LLC is effectively giving people a good reason to screw you over by requesting extra tickets they don't need?


Missing out on the name calling? Find me on Playa. I like to get drunk and use a megaphone. Better yet, tell me where you're camping and I'll help you out with your missed experience. Maybe in return you can help me find the "most people explain rationally" part of the Playa I've been missing.*

The LLC hasn't created scarcity. Your problem isn't that the LLC created a reason to hoard, it's that they haven't solved it.

IMO, plenty of people will hoard this year. Then, after months of having their money tied up in tickets, and the possible stress of being one of the many people selling off tickets at the last minute (maybe we'll be lucky and people will sell them off at lower than face value) they might learn their lesson and not hoard any more. Frankly, I think it's more likely to go down like that than with tons of scalping and whatnot.




*For the record, I mean this sincerely and in a non-aggressive manner. I promise it will be fun for you, and that afterward we'll hug and do all the hippy love stuff if you want.
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby theCryptofishist » Mon Jan 09, 2012 12:00 pm

A Jester wrote:IMO, plenty of people will hoard this year. Then, after months of having their money tied up in tickets, and the possible stress of being one of the many people selling off tickets at the last minute (maybe we'll be lucky and people will sell them off at lower than face value) they might learn their lesson and not hoard any more. Frankly, I think it's more likely to go down like that than with tons of scalping and whatnot.

I agree.
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby This Woman » Mon Jan 09, 2012 12:20 pm

Too bad you weren't around to tell me that my husband would die 15 months after the wedding...


Wow, that was a horrible thing to say.
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby feistypenguin » Mon Jan 09, 2012 1:09 pm

Man, all of this talk of hoarding, scalping, incentives etc. is making me want to re-read books on Austrian Economics :D

The biggest factor that regulates hoarding in any free-market economic system is cost, plain and simple. As trilobyte mentioned, Burning man also discourages hoarding by putting you on the hook for whatever you buy as soon as you click the "order" button, and turning the ticket purchase into more of an investment by forcing a long delay between purchase and receipt of tickets. That means the only people who will be able to "hoard" tickets are the ones willing to place separate orders on separate cards for multiple tickets, and also be ok with having money tied up in those tickets for XX months before getting rid of excess tickets. If hoarding is commonplace on the main and secondary sale, then there will be a vibrant tertiary market opening in June for people trying to get rid of tickets- and if people use BMorg's systems to trade tickets with fellow burners, then extra tickets will be less likely to be scalped.

I'm sure you can have some determined scalpers who will go in early for a ticket, and try to flip them later... but most scalpers aren't willing to tie their money up for that long. Do YOU have $400-800 extra floating around to tie up in BM tickets? I don't think many people are willing to do that, and if they are, you will see a lively market for people trying to get rid of their tickets later.

Honestly, I think last year's system was easier to game when the sales opened, in the sense that people could hammer the queue system from multiple locations to "hoard" places in line. Of course, that was a moot point because last year's system buckled under load and put the queue into a blender. This year's system mitigates that issue (at least for the January sale.)

A few more hours to go before I have to get in line... oh wait, I don't have to worry about that! :D
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby sabalore » Mon Jan 09, 2012 1:43 pm

I'm a little worried about this, too. I have friends who are entering for a total of 8 tickets even though they only need a total of 4. They plan to resell ASAP if they get more - and that way if someone in our group doesn't get tickets, they might have extras. I don't necessarily agree with this, but can understand their concern. My boyfriend and I decided not to game the system and to do one entry for 2 tickets together. We also only went for the first two tiers - if we don't get them we will try to buy Tier 1 or 2 tickets at face + s/h from someone who has extras before the open sale... and if not, we'll try the open sale (and will be saving for that reality in the interm).
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby This Woman » Mon Jan 09, 2012 1:47 pm

Eric wrote: The only way people aren't going to get tickets is if (a) they only enter at one of lower tiers & don't get drawn, (b) more people enter than there are tickets available.


Not true. Another way is if you can’t afford a ticket by March. April 1 is too late. If you have to budget and save longer than these good people on eplaya, clearly you should not be coming at all. You can’t afford it (that’s a swipe at Badger).

Eric wrote: I would call someone who hoards an ass on the playa itself, just like I do here ….You're saying that you're more special than I because you can afford mass amounts of tickets when I can only afford one


And you’re more special than me because you can afford your one ticket in January. Don’t worry though, I won’t call you an ass on the playa because I won’t be there. I did manage to get my ass out there 16 times with a theme camp in tow 13 of those times, and yet now, without my life or finances changing essentially from this year to last, I suddenly can’t afford to go. I am supposed to understand that it’s all very fair and if I complain I’m just paranoid and fear change. Fuck that; I’m bitter and it’s a well informed bitterness.

Ironically, it’s the hoarders that would make it possible for me to go, but without my theme camp. They are the ones who will be selling face value tickets in June.
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby funkyjigsaw » Mon Jan 09, 2012 2:33 pm

I've said this before, and I'll say it again (because I can!) : I think this "draw" system will really work well. I like the fact that there are multiple routes to be able to buy tickets. People who could afford $420, could de-stress themselves by getting tickets in December. Then there is the main draw. Then the Open sale. Then the BM official after market system (to be announced, which by the way, I think is a master stroke). Then the unofficial after market. It will be VERY interesting for the BMORG to look at the statistics in hindsight and see what actually happened.
- Hoarding is a natural reaction to this "unknown" new system. In 2013 this may not be the case, especially if BMORG could release some data that shows that there are plenty of tickets. i.e. demand does not HUGELY outstrip supply. People may be more relaxed in 2013 ... I hope!
- I don't know the history of the tier system. I suspect it can be simplified ... and probably will be in 2013.
Finally, well done BMORG for coming up with what I think will be a good system, and a bottle of booze each for Trilobyte, Savannah, Eric et all for keeping (mainly) chilled out!
Bottom line : I think most people will get their tickets one way or another. Sure, yes the system could be improved even more, but that can be for fine tuning in 2013.
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby A Jester » Mon Jan 09, 2012 2:55 pm

This Woman wrote: I’m bitter and it’s a well informed bitterness.


I'm not trying to start a fight, but do you think that maybe this is a good year for you to take off? The plus side is, if you find yourself totally missing the playa, you'll have ample opportunity to save up for a ticket (probably even one of those expensive pre-sale ones) next year.

I'm not informed on the details of your fianances, it seems like you must be an accountant or some other seasonally employed person - because you can afford to run a theme camp, but can't buy a ticket until a certain date. Since you've been going so long, I imagine you have a ton of burner friends. Have you thought about fund raising or even just borrowing the money until April 1st? Maybe borrow it from your theme camp funds?

Or, like I wondered up top, maybe this is a good year for you to take off.

With over 50k people attending, any new system will end up having unforeseen consequences and making someone deserving to go unable to. Of course, leaving the system alone might have done the same thing to you, so I guess I'd prefer to have them try SOMETHING than do nothing.

Sorry about your situation, I hope you find a way out of it.
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby BBadger » Mon Jan 09, 2012 3:43 pm

This Woman wrote:Not true. Another way is if you can’t afford a ticket by March. April 1 is too late. If you have to budget and save longer than these good people on eplaya, clearly you should not be coming at all. You can’t afford it (that’s a swipe at Badger).


I never said that at all, but thank you for the swipe. Congrats if you have the fiscal responsibility to save the discretionary income you accumulate over time to attend the event. However, if do not earn enough by the time you need to purchase the tickets, then the frequency of attendance will unfortunately be lower. If that happens to be the case this year, then yes, you cannot afford to go--this year--despite your best efforts. Put the money towards next year. This also highlights the value of credit; you might be able to delay the payment by an additional month given the billing cycle.

Still, I'm not sure what you're arguing here. Is it simply shaking a fist at the money gods for not creating cash flow at critical moments of the year? Or is it a complaint about the ticket scheme?

If the latter, how does the ticket scheme situation this year--or for that matter for any ticketing scheme--change the poor timing of the sell-out with respect to those finances? In March is the open sale, the same open sale that would have usually started some time in late January after the initial mad rush. Just like previous years, this open sale goes on until no tickets are available. Given the sell-out fears this year, would a buyer have had any better chance this year, using last year's ticket scheme, in acquiring a ticket within such savings cash-flow timing constraints?

I don't think the situation is any different for no matter what ticket scheme is in place. Hoarding will be a feature of all schemes, especially after the first sell-out in history. The availability of tickets will be dictated by simple demand after March 1st. My prediction is that there will actually be far more tickets available than people previous expected, possibly extending into April or even as far as June. Or not. Either way, it'll sell out at roughly the same time.

Ironically, it’s the hoarders that would make it possible for me to go, but without my theme camp. They are the ones who will be selling face value tickets in June.


They are also making it possible for you to go at reasonable prices under any scheme. An important purpose of the main sale is to reduce the effect of scalping. Given a regular ol' sale, large batches of tickets could be hoarded away for commercial purposes, rather than simply because some people are spooked about last year's sell-out. Hoarding isn't really so bad; as with any hoarded resource there will be a glut of tickets available when tickets are finally mailed. You've simply postponed the purchase to a later point, and have a higher probability of dealing with non-scalper types.

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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby trilobyte » Mon Jan 09, 2012 3:53 pm

Based on the rate of sale for tickets last year and normal/natural growth of the event, I think the chances that there would still be tickets in April under the old system would be zero. Especially when you consider the reaction that many people had to last year's sell-out (people either made plans to buy earlier or stock up & hoard to cover campmates or projects). Even if the old system was able to keep automated ticket buying software at bay (which it couldn't), tickets would have been gone before March at the latest, and most likely by the end of January.
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby This Woman » Mon Jan 09, 2012 4:05 pm

@A Jester – put em up, put em up!

I appreciate your concern and compassion so much….but of course I’ve considered the options. I consider them frequently.

I should tell you for clarification, that my beef with the lottery is 90% with regard to theme camps. It’s kind of interesting to me that individuals are concerned they won’t get a ticket to the extent they are planning on hoarding. I figured it would only be members of theme camps that would hoard because they have more to lose if they don’t get their tickets (like deposits on rental equipment or the theme camp itself). But now that I think of it, individuals do put big deposits on motor homes up to a year in advance.

If Burning Man were like a concert or festival where I could go and listen to music and buy arts and food from the vendor booths, I would have no problem at all with the lottery.
Those vendors know they are in well before the event, and they can plan and expend appropriately. But Burning Man relies predominantly on it’s audience to also provide the entertainment, on a voluntary, loosely structured basis that works very well for a movement, but not so much for an event. They could probably do themselves and their theme camp volunteers a huge, appropriately generous service by extending out the camp deadline by at least a month.
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby This Woman » Mon Jan 09, 2012 4:11 pm

Badger said: Anybody making credit card monthly payments to pay for BM tickets should seriously reconsider attending in the first place due to financial strain.


That's what you said that I was swiping at. Presumptuous. But I was lazy and should have quoted you directly (i was also getting long in the tooth already, which I do). Apologies and redirect swipe please to above quote.
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby This Woman » Mon Jan 09, 2012 4:41 pm

Badger wrote: Still, I'm not sure what you're arguing here. Is it simply shaking a fist at the money gods for not creating cash flow at critical moments of the year? Or is it a complaint about the ticket scheme?


My last comment to Jester should clarify my displeasure. In previous years I could begin planning my camp in December even though I wouldn’t have my tickets for months. A lot goes into planning and sometimes deposits are made, key players have to be locked in or replaced, etc. materials planned, priced and sometimes procured all before deadline.

It is true that we can make our plans in December and January the way we always have, count on the necessary members getting their tickets and then if it doesn’t work out, save what we can for future years, take a wash on the rest and let the llc deal with the empty spot on the map. Maybe we’ll do that.
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby pink » Mon Jan 09, 2012 10:21 pm

@This Woman: I would think that you would also have to make sure key people were going again, able to get tickets, etc. All I've read from you in the last few months has been whinging about how you can't go/can't bring your theme camp ad nauseum. Is there no-one in your camp that doesn't have cash flow problems? Have you even checked, asked your Burner friends? If you had changed your whine over the last two months, saying what you've tried that didn't work to get the tickets, I wouldn't be posting this.

Hey, I don't know what kind of income I'm going to make this year...I lost my job and I am a self-employed accountant now. I'll have a lot more cash in April than I do now. But I've budgeted very carefully. I also have credit, which you must as well if you are renting trucks and equipment. Instead of whinging, I asked my theme camp if anyone had credit/cash flow problems and would like me to get an extra ticket to facillitate their going. No one jumped. I asked the owner of the camp. Nope, everyone's good.

Then at another event, I talked with a burner friend who will finally be able to go again this year after having no money for two years, and no vacation this last year. Can finally go, but wasn't sure about having the cash until March or April. So I'm buying his ticket, and now he only has to cover his wife's.

See? community. That's one of the principles too. So maybe instead of spending all of this energy complaining about how you just can't go or can't bring your camp because of this screwed up ticket system, spend some of that energy figuring out how you can make it work.
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby BBadger » Tue Jan 10, 2012 5:57 am

This Woman wrote:
Badger said: Anybody making credit card monthly payments to pay for BM tickets should seriously reconsider attending in the first place due to financial strain.


That's what you said that I was swiping at. Presumptuous. But I was lazy and should have quoted you directly (i was also getting long in the tooth already, which I do). Apologies and redirect swipe please to above quote.


I do believe that, because there is a major difference between saving discretionary money beforehand to attend, and buying something and paying off your debt + interest. The only things that should paid for with payments are those that accrue value over time--and investment. Anything else is undeserving of interest payments.

In the reference to the value of "credit" as above, I mean you have that one-month period between the your credit card purchase and the payment. It basically gives you another month of flexibility in purchase power.

This Woman wrote:My last comment to Jester should clarify my displeasure. In previous years I could begin planning my camp in December even though I wouldn’t have my tickets for months. A lot goes into planning and sometimes deposits are made, key players have to be locked in or replaced, etc. materials planned, priced and sometimes procured all before deadline.

It is true that we can make our plans in December and January the way we always have, count on the necessary members getting their tickets and then if it doesn’t work out, save what we can for future years, take a wash on the rest and let the llc deal with the empty spot on the map. Maybe we'll do that.


I think the major flaw in your logic is that you're assuming that ticket sales would have extended out to the same lengths of time as in previous years given the same scheme. However, the driving force changing that situation is not the lottery, but demand on the event. If you're unhappy with the current situation, blame the popularity of the event and the population cap, not this lottery scheme.

I also have little sympathy for the theme camps and their ticket situation. How do most theme camps acquire most of their tickets to fill in the holes? I assume by buying them in the open sale. There is still an open sale, for 10,000 tickets--minimum--a little less than 20% of all tickets sold; I'm betting that there'll be a glut of T3 tickets from the main sale adding to that as well. This may be even more than were available for sale at that time last year.

In effect, your ability to buy tickets this year for your theme camp has not been diminished. Most tickets for the theme camp can be purchased via the open sale in the same quantities as previous years. The fact that there will be demand for spare tickets means that purchasing tickets now doesn't mean you'll be saddled with some wasted ticket later. Yes, you can plan for that. My own personal ticket acquisition strategy bets on the availability of tickets in the open sale if I don't win any in the lottery, and I expect no troubles at all--except that I may have to pay full price.

Perhaps it'll simply be that theme camps (and people) will need to plan further ahead, and assume that they must buy their tickets as soon as they are on sale or miss out. That concept is already ingrained in me, so it doesn't seem that alien; however, some people who have been attending longer may find that practice a bit out of place. Oh well, we all have to adapt.
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby theCryptofishist » Tue Jan 10, 2012 11:00 am

pink wrote:...ad nauseum.

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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby NessaZee » Tue Jan 10, 2012 12:46 pm

This Woman wrote:
Eric wrote: The only way people aren't going to get tickets is if (a) they only enter at one of lower tiers & don't get drawn, (b) more people enter than there are tickets available.


Not true. Another way is if you can’t afford a ticket by March. April 1 is too late. If you have to budget and save longer than these good people on eplaya, clearly you should not be coming at all. You can’t afford it (that’s a swipe at Badger).

Eric wrote: I would call someone who hoards an ass on the playa itself, just like I do here ….You're saying that you're more special than I because you can afford mass amounts of tickets when I can only afford one


And you’re more special than me because you can afford your one ticket in January. Don’t worry though, I won’t call you an ass on the playa because I won’t be there. I did manage to get my ass out there 16 times with a theme camp in tow 13 of those times, and yet now, without my life or finances changing essentially from this year to last, I suddenly can’t afford to go. I am supposed to understand that it’s all very fair and if I complain I’m just paranoid and fear change. Fuck that; I’m bitter and it’s a well informed bitterness.

Ironically, it’s the hoarders that would make it possible for me to go, but without my theme camp. They are the ones who will be selling face value tickets in June.


did you perhaps consider that maybe this is your 'year off' ?
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby NessaZee » Tue Jan 10, 2012 1:08 pm

I don't know that 'everyone' is registering for too many tickets, but i think there will be enough to maybe mess with the flow. I see so many people blaming this new system for their anxious thoughts. Get a grip. Be accountable for your feelings. there is talk of needing to game the system. Why? Why is it so very important to make it to burning man? Will your life end if you don't go this year? Would it be that devastating? Can all those people who NEED to go ask themselves why they are so dependent on this yearly tradition...with all this anxiety, needing to game the system, blaming the system....the need to get these tickets for some is akin to an addiction. It kinda concerns me. but whatever...people will do what they feel they need, and hopefully learn from whatever consequences they find themselves in.

i think this lottery is interesting. I can't wait to see how it all rolls out. one thing that i haven't seen talked about are the 'unclaimed tickets' from the random drawings that will be added to the main sale. to me, that suggests some sort of an opt out option. those people who have registered for more tickets than they need my not have to end up purchasing all of them...say if sabalore's friends find out that some of them got enough tickets for all of them before the others names had yet to be drawn...wouldn't the ones who haven't been drawn yet take the money off their CCs so their order wouldn't end up going through? Or if your name is drawn you are given the option to accept the order or decline the order. will the unclaimed tickets be only the ones that the CC was declined?
I'm intrigued to see how this is going to work.

as for getting my ticket? I have no idea if i'm going or not :)
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby Savannah » Tue Jan 10, 2012 1:30 pm

those people who have registered for more tickets than they need my not have to end up purchasing all of them...say if sabalore's friends find out that some of them got enough tickets for all of them before the others names had yet to be drawn...wouldn't the ones who haven't been drawn yet take the money off their CCs so their order wouldn't end up going through?


I'm sure they could try, but that would be between the wannabe hoarder and their credit card company. I don't know how well it works to call up your credit card company and back out of a transaction you've committed to of your own free will.

Or if your name is drawn you are given the option to accept the order or decline the order.


Nope. If you're selected, you're billed right then. You're not asked if you really, really meant it. :)

will the unclaimed tickets be only the ones that the CC was declined?
I'm intrigued to see how this is going to work.


Unclaimed tickets will be tickets that were never requested in the first place (if demand is slower than anticipated). The Ticket FAQ does not mention what happens to a ticket order in the case of a card decline. I'm not in a position to guess, but--if I want tickets--I would avoid a decline if at all possible.
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby BBadger » Tue Jan 10, 2012 1:40 pm

According to Trilo if a card gets declined, you're SOL and the next person gets drawn for that ticket. The card/person probably gets removed after a decline just as if you had purchased the ticket, as a second attempt would likely result in another decline.
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby theCryptofishist » Tue Jan 10, 2012 8:51 pm

NessaZee wrote:I don't know that 'everyone' is registering for too many tickets, but i think there will be enough to maybe mess with the flow. I see so many people blaming this new system for their anxious thoughts. Get a grip. Be accountable for your feelings. there is talk of needing to game the system. Why? Why is it so very important to make it to burning man? Will your life end if you don't go this year? Would it be that devastating? Can all those people who NEED to go ask themselves why they are so dependent on this yearly tradition...with all this anxiety, needing to game the system, blaming the system....the need to get these tickets for some is akin to an addiction. It kinda concerns me. but whatever...people will do what they feel they need, and hopefully learn from whatever consequences they find themselves in.

Yeah, the psychology, possible even pathology, here is fascinating. I especially love the people who drop in every four weeks to tell us exactly what they said last month. It's like the constant rehearsal of the wrongs against them is the only thing that keeps them going. I think a lot of them are essentially going to cheat themselves out of tickets, and they will spend the last week in August chanting the exact same thing they say when they are in here. I wonder what misery buys them...
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby joshuaj » Tue Jan 10, 2012 11:35 pm

@Jester: If you want to get more than your fill of rational explanations on the playa, march your megaphone over to Entheon. I camped with them 2 years ago and they were awesome, I might do it again if I could afford it, but man did they take the reason thing waaay too far sometimes. I was reminded at times of South Park's depiction of San Francisco. :)

@5280 MeV: You're right, with my idea 2 people who both want tickets would have a slightly better chance of getting them than 1. You could limit the group advantage by continuing to limit the number of tickets each person could buy. (Somebody could also game the system if they found a way to register multiple times, although that's hard -- few people can consistently and repeatedly change their IP address.) When I suggested it in my opening post, I asked what problems it might have -- thanks for pointing some out!

It will be interesting to see how this drawing (or any system, honestly) will affect theme camp planning and organization.

I do hope, as several have expressed, that the hoarding that occurs this year is so inconvenient to the people who do it that next year is smoother. I also hope that the tickets FAQ gets updated to explain in a little more detail *why* they think this is the best system, why you shouldn't hoard (both ethical and practical reasons), and why various other systems wouldn't work better, instead of just asking people to blindly trust them -- lack of information leads to lack of trust, which leads to panic, which leads to hoarding.

After all this discussion, I do think I'll only sign up for two tickets, for me and my friend -- I'm going to sign up for a higher tier and partially subsidize my friends' ticket. For changing my mind, I give credit to several intelligent people in this forum, once they decided to stop trolling and actually say why they felt the way they did :)

PS: True story: My friend looked over my shoulder after the first half-dozen responses to my initial post and saw the string of obnoxious rants, and said, "Oh god. I recognize those screen names... they troll all over the forums, drowning out all intelligent discussion with their 'Burnier Than Thou' attitude. I stopped reading the forum altogether because they make me so angry. Don't even bother to respond to them." I had to laugh when I noticed later that several of these "trolls" she was referring to were in fact moderators.

And @Eric, though I don't have the blind optimism you do, I do hope you get a ticket this year too. And not just because you sound like you need a vacation.
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby Eric » Wed Jan 11, 2012 12:00 am

joshuaj wrote:And @Eric, though I don't have the blind optimism you do, I do hope you get a ticket this year too. And not just because you sound like you need a vacation.


There is a difference between optimism and "blind optimism"- the first is looking at the facts & thinking things look favorable, the later is not caring about the facts & just thinking things will turn out like you want. I am definitely not "blind" to the fact that there will be more demand than tickets, which I think comes through in my posts; I am just realistic enough to know that with 40,000 tickets on sale in the main drawing the likelihood of getting one is pretty damn high.
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Re: Everyone buying too many tickets?

Postby joshuaj » Wed Jan 11, 2012 12:02 am

trilobyte wrote:@joshuaj - sorry I'm not 'burner' enough to meet your standards,


@Trilobyte, are you still trying to pick a fight, or are you just reading way too fast? I never said anything to suggest that you were any less 'burner' than anybody else. I did suggest that you were acting like a dick, which is a quality I happen to find fairly rare among burners; but whether this anomaly makes you any more or less Burner than anybody else is not for me to say. It worries me that a perceived challenge to your Burner-ness was more offensive to you than an actual challenge to your attitude -- I certainly didn't mean to question your religion. (A cursory reading of the Ten Holy Principals doesn't seem to suggest that "acting like a dick" is a relevant criterion, though Radical Inclusion suggests that we err on the side of acceptance.)

TL;DR: dude, lighten up.
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