3000 "Christmas" tickets.

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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby graidawg » Wed Nov 23, 2011 1:27 pm

bradtem wrote:
graidawg wrote:

can you say that again slowly and in english please?


When you have an uncertain outcome with probabilities, like in lotteries, you calculate an "expected value" which is to say what the average value would be if you did something a zillion times. You won't buy a zillion burning man tickets but you will take tons of chances like this in your life and so the right way to think of the cost is to use this expected value.

Take simple gambling. If I offer you a coin toss where I pay you $1 for heads and $2 for tails, the break-even price for you to bet would be $1.50. That's because after 10 tosses you are going to pay $15 and probably get back $15. The "expected value" of each toss is $1.50. If I let you do it for less than $1.50 it's a win, if I charge more (like a Casino does) it's a loss. When you see slot machines advertise "98% payback" it means the expected value from a bet is 98 cents on the dollar, even though no given bet returns that.

Anyway, for the main sale of tickets, the expected value is $326.50 per ticket. You won't pay that, and you won't buy tickets too often in life, but that's how to treat the cost of such a ticket (mostly) compared to $420. It's not exactly that because there is some chance of losing either the pre-sale or main sale.


I was with you till "take simple gambling"
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby oneeyeddick » Tue Nov 29, 2011 2:43 am

Well, the secret is officially out now.

http://www.ktvn.com/story/16140101/burning-man-lottery
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby junglesmacks » Tue Nov 29, 2011 7:23 am

oneeyeddick wrote:Well, the secret is officially out now.

http://www.ktvn.com/story/16140101/burning-man-lottery


Shit's about to get real.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby Just_Joe » Tue Nov 29, 2011 10:24 am

oneeyeddick wrote:Well, the secret is officially out now.
http://www.ktvn.com/story/16140101/burning-man-lottery

I figgered it must have hit MSM. So far this AM I've had 3 people ask me about it.
I'm gifting my chances to the other people entering......
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby jkisha » Tue Nov 29, 2011 10:27 am

Very interesting...yup, the cat's out of the bag.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby jafaar » Tue Nov 29, 2011 8:29 pm

bradtem wrote:
trilobyte wrote:And of course, remember that the proceeds of the premium-priced pre-sale tickets go to help provide more low income ticket opportunities. So if you really don't mind paying a little more to help your fellow burner (instead of funding a cheap ticket for some dude who camped on their computer and got lucky during the on-sale), now's your chance.


That's true in a broad sense. They go into the general fund, and because they do, when the ticket prices are planned, it allows there to be cheaper tickets and still reach the desired revenue levels.

But if this is the case, why is there a broad feeling that it would be wrong to solve the scarcity problem the normal way it is solved, with economics. There is so much fear of solving it with price that the lottery is the only solution BRCLLC saw, and people really are not fond of the lottery. Rapidly escalating prices for tickets beyond 35,000 would bring in lots of revenue to allow lower priced tickets for some, reduce scalping (as long as the price doesn't have to get super high) and slow or eliminate a sell-out. But this is resisted, because the result would be, as in other market-based systems, that the best way to get a ticket is to be wealthier.


But we are in a market based system, once those tickets are released out onto the open market! Why are people so resistant to that reality? Why do we keep trying to artificially manipulate this system? It is so absurd to talk about the "wealthy" involved here when the actual cost for going is a lot more than the ticket cost. Wealth is relative, but as far as I am concerned, everyone who attends BM is wealthy. Or at least, they are wealthier than 95% of the people on this planet. Burning Man: We are the 5%!

Burning Man org is too concerned with fairness, in a very narrow sense of the word. What about us from the east coast who have an extra $400 in travel expenses just to get there? Shouldn't we be able to apply for special distance-based tickets? Wouldn't that be fair?
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby theCryptofishist » Tue Nov 29, 2011 8:37 pm

There are many different ways to judge "fair". Since the llc has the partnership with BLM they get to use their definition.

Economics can cut through all sorts conceptual fogs, but using it as your only metric distorts things. It's a soft science, but it masquerades as a hard one because it's got numbers. This means that dollars (for instance) are taken as more important than the things a sociologist studies, because those are so much harder to define and track. And then there is the trap of believing (on the basis of the "invisible hand" metaphor) that the way things work out economically is also the best possible way for things to work out.

At any rate, do you really expect people who promote a "gift economy" to go all Adam Smith, or worse yet, Chicago School? That seems a little naive.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby trilobyte » Tue Nov 29, 2011 8:38 pm

@bradtem - don't think I'd caught your comment earlier, but that's not actually the case. If for some reason response to the pre-sale is extremely poor and very few tickets are sold, then it would very well lead to fewer low income ticket opportunities. The number of tickets to be offered will be more than the 3,500 that were offered in the old low income & scholarship programs in 2011, but the exact number of tickets is yet tbd.

@jafaar - think of it as a geography tax :mrgreen:
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby Finnegan » Wed Nov 30, 2011 2:28 pm

oneeyeddick wrote:Well, the secret is officially out now.

http://www.ktvn.com/story/16140101/burning-man-lottery


From tfa:
"It sounds high but burners are willing to pay that," said Eric Baron, owner of The Melting Pot, which for 14 years was the only ticket outlet in Reno.

This one is not willing (or financially able) to pay that. This shit is just making the whole thing more elitist. Just charge $1000 per ticket, require all participants to bring RVs and be done with it.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby trilobyte » Wed Nov 30, 2011 2:55 pm

How dare they raise the ticket prices $30-$70 over the course of 3 years! Fucking elitist pigs and their lottery that gives everyone who registers a shot at getting a ticket! :mrgreen:
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby Finnegan » Wed Nov 30, 2011 3:14 pm

lottery that gives everyone who registers a shot at getting a ticket!


This is the fairest system money can buy, and sounds a lot like corps are people as far as speech is concerned. Thanks. One person, one vote, right? Sure. Now, try to get an appointment with a Senator. Are you rich? You get in. Are you not? You get ignored. But we're all equal.

A comment from EQ:
All the wink-wink "we're thinking about you and your concerns" calm-down-you-will-get-a-ticket bullshit is getting to be a bit much. All I know is: we can only afford to enter the first tier (which is more than I paid for a ticket in the past) and there are the fewest tickets available at that tier and everyone and their mother will sign up for that tier. So it's a very real possibility that we will not be able to get tickets we can afford and therefore may not be able to attend in 2012. That makes me sad. I am not feeling the calm they want to convey below AT ALL.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby Sail Man » Wed Nov 30, 2011 3:43 pm

Raymaker wrote:if we tell it straight, exactly how much it can cost to go to Burning Man (especially the first time) one could seriously reduced the number of people who might think of applying. last year was my first.

Flight from London to Chicago (return), Flight from Chicago to Reno (return) Was actually cheaper than a direct flight.
Two nights in Reno hotel
Hire cost 16ft truck
Tent
Tent shelter
Inflatable bed and pump
Cooker and propane
Misc camping stuff
Hat, mask, goggles
Bike
Video camera
Misc bike stuff
Chairs
Food and water (too much, as most probably do the first time)
Alcohol
Cooler
Lights
Art project stuff for gifting
All that other stuff you buy, spend that you really don't need to
$300 baggage fine (there and back), overweight, the baggage not me



I finally added up all of the receipts I had from this yrs burn yesterday.

5324.00 :shock:

gas was 2100
hotels were 800
tix were 500

So what the hell did I spend the other 2g's on? food, booze, tp for my bungholio, other random supplies/shit

No wonder I'm getting collection calls from American Express :roll:

Odds are pretty good that the kitchen remodel in lieu of next yrs burn will save me a few buckaroo's
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby trilobyte » Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:07 pm

I couldn't tell you about the 'fairest system money can buy', but it sounds like you're reading more into this than is there based on the senator analogy.

Last year, at the lowest tier you had even less of a chance at tickets. Only 8K first tier ticket opportunities (vs. 10K this year). Plus, those tickets were only available for the first few hours, and thanks to the magic of server trouble (something that's been an issue EVERY year during the on-sale date, and even plagues busy on-sales from companies with unlimited server resources like TicketMaster & LiveNation) many of those who were there the very moment tickets went on sale did not have a chance at lowest tier tickets. It was something of a crapshoot. And some who were there early missed out on the chance to get the first two tiers. Those who could afford more have always had the opportunity to purchase the lower tier tickets if they got through before they were sold out, and sales data shows that in every year you've been going (and in the years before that), the overwhelming majority have purchased the lowest tier.

The ticket details (which are not changing for the 2012 event) have been posted, there's a lengthy FAQ that covers quite a bit of ground on additional concerns, and if you have a valid question that's not already been asked/answered a few dozen times please go ahead and post it (and I'll see if an answer's available). Whether you feel the calm or not is entirely your choice. Good luck.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby Finnegan » Wed Nov 30, 2011 5:10 pm

I feel very calm, thanks.

Has there been any effort to poll burners about this new, shiny system?
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby theCryptofishist » Wed Nov 30, 2011 9:39 pm

I'm sorry, Finnegan, but that's a little silly. How would they get hold of a sample? And how would they run this thing--telephone robocalls? Doodlepoll? Eplaya? Well, they sorta did on eplaya, trilobyte (and I trust him) has been saying that people in the organization have been reading it. (Actiongirl has commented a few times.) I don't know how this will work. And I don't know if they did a poor job of introducing it, or if participants are a recalcitrant lot. I'd love to see you out there this year. I think you bring wonderful energy to the playa. I can't tell you that it will be alright, because I don't know how it will work out. But I'm willing to give it a try. I'd love for you to register for the first tier in the main sale.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby Savannah » Wed Nov 30, 2011 9:42 pm

theCryptofishist wrote:(Damn, no boffo ending.)


*jazz hands*
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby BBadger » Thu Dec 01, 2011 12:22 am

Good luck in trying to get a T1 ticket. The $70 difference between tickets is definitely significant. However, if that amount is the difference between going and not going, the cost of attending Burning Man is an unreasonable luxury vacation for your budget. In that respect, you should consider not going at all in the first place.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby Finnegan » Thu Dec 01, 2011 12:29 am

Thanks! Stay classy.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby trilobyte » Thu Dec 01, 2011 12:44 am

I suspect that there will be all kinds of feedback gathered after tickets are sold, whether that's done via poll or survey or some other method I really couldn't say. Polling users before anybody has the opportunity to actually go through the process wouldn't really provide much in the way of useful data. There's a great quote from Henry Ford that seems appropriate, "if I'd have asked customers what they wanted they'd have said a faster horse."

As for odds of getting a tier 1 ticket, they're just a little bit better than than they were last year. Regardless of what ticket you could afford last year (and in previous years), if you got through while those tickets were available you could choose to purchase the lowest tier. And the overwhelming majority did just that. In January 2011, there were only 8K first tier tickets. In January 2012, there will be 10K, that's 25% more tier 1's than last year. Offhand, I think the normal/natural growth of the event is in the 10-15% range. So unless there are a significant number of hoarders registering for tickets, chances should be quite good. And then factor in that it's a two week registration period, versus a very narrow range of time on the first day that people had a chance of getting through.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby Nipple » Thu Dec 01, 2011 11:59 am

There are ~56,000 people going.

Assume everyone wants a 1st tier ticket.

There are 10,000. That means your odds are about 18%. I'd enter that lottery.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby jkisha » Thu Dec 01, 2011 12:10 pm

Nipple wrote:There are ~56,000 people going.

Assume everyone wants a 1st tier ticket.

There are 10,000. That means your odds are about 18%. I'd enter that lottery.

I think the odds are better than that considering not all 56,000 will get into the first drawing window.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby Nipple » Thu Dec 01, 2011 12:23 pm

Agreed.

But everyone loves nightmare scenarios.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby illy dilly » Thu Dec 01, 2011 12:35 pm

trilobyte wrote:How dare they raise the ticket prices $30-$70 over the course of 3 years! Fucking elitist pigs and their lottery that gives everyone who registers a shot at getting a ticket! :mrgreen:

LOL!!!!

You know who is making it unfair, the gas companies!!!
The gas companies for raising the cost on petroleum!
I mean we could barely afford 2400 miles worth of gas in 2010, it was absurd to add another 200 dollars to that in 2011!!!
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby A Jester » Thu Dec 01, 2011 12:46 pm

BBadger wrote:Good luck in trying to get a T1 ticket. The $70 difference between tickets is definitely significant. However, if that amount is the difference between going and not going, the cost of attending Burning Man is an unreasonable luxury vacation for your budget. In that respect, you should consider not going at all in the first place.


Amen.

I appreciate that people have to try to save money every where they can, and that some people will probably choose not to go because they feel like the tickets are too expensive. However, I seriously doubt that anyone going out there for a significant amount of time couldn't find a way to shave $70 off their food, travel, and drink expenses. I'm assuming they've been going for a few years and already have all their gear and costume needs met.

If money is tight to the point that there's no way to scrounge up that $70, maybe you should do the fiscally responsible thing and stay at home. Save the $240 you were going to spend in 2012 and then you can afford a $480 presale ticket for 2013. Or heck, maybe spend it on repairing your bike, or new socks, or whatever other expenditures you are forgoing in order to make it to the playa.

Compared to the main event, regionals are real cheap, ya know.



Nisha/jkipple -

We should at least take the 3k xmas sales out of the equation.

53,000 people registering for 10,000 T1 tickets is almost 19%!

That leaves 43,000 registering for 15,000 T2 tickets, almost 35% likely!

Then 28,000 people are left hoping for the T3 tickets. Over 53% of them will get one.

So even if EVERYONE registers for a ticket in the lottery, the odds are looking up every day!

(yeah yeah yeah, some people will buy two tickets, and the whole thing will go to hell... That's fine. Now that the dirty hippies have shown me how impossible the 1% have made it to manifest a ticket, I think I'll go hang out in Golden Gate park for a week. I just need to borrow some dreads and a mangy dog. Anyone got dreads and a mangy dog I can have for a week?)
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby Nipple » Thu Dec 01, 2011 12:54 pm

Wait... am I Nisha... or Jkipple...
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby 5280MeV » Thu Dec 01, 2011 12:56 pm

trilobyte wrote: Last year, at the lowest tier you had even less of a chance at tickets. Only 8K first tier ticket opportunities (vs. 10K this year). Plus, those tickets were only available for the first few hours, and thanks to the magic of server trouble (something that's been an issue EVERY year during the on-sale date, and even plagues busy on-sales from companies with unlimited server resources like TicketMaster & LiveNation) many of those who were there the very moment tickets went on sale did not have a chance at lowest tier tickets. It was something of a crapshoot. And some who were there early missed out on the chance to get the first two tiers.


Basically, you are saying that the lowest two tiers for 2011 were effectively allocated on a random lottery system, so aside from simply keeping the random lottery organized, scrubbing the list of scalpers, and expanding the lowest tier, there is literally no functional difference between how the lowest two tiers are sold in 2011 and 2012.

...aside from calling a lottery a lottery.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby remi » Thu Dec 01, 2011 1:01 pm

The chance of winning depends on which tier they draw first. If they draw it tier 3 then 2 then 1.. that means 30,000 less people will be in the 240$ draw.


"Manifest a ticket" doesn't makes sense. Please stop trying to sound smart people.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby Nipple » Thu Dec 01, 2011 1:28 pm

Assume1, 2, 3.

Giving it some thought - 3, 2, 1 rewards people who aren't willing to put in for more than one tier.
Last edited by Nipple on Thu Dec 01, 2011 1:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby junglesmacks » Thu Dec 01, 2011 1:48 pm

It's already been said officially as per Trilo that it will be drawn 1, 2, 3.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby remi » Thu Dec 01, 2011 1:55 pm

junglesmacks wrote:It's already been said officially as per Trilo that it will be drawn 1, 2, 3.


tier 1 being the 240$ tier?
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