3000 "Christmas" tickets.

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3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby oneeyeddick » Sat Nov 19, 2011 6:25 pm

And they are only $30 more than tier three, also you can buy 4 of them if your name is drawn.

I don't see the need to wait, time you check your credit card balances...
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby Just_Joe » Sat Nov 19, 2011 8:26 pm

Registration for the random selection Pre-Sale round of the $420 "gift certificates suitable for printing" begins in...4 business days.

The plan has been presented.I guess they've got a switch ready to throw. Let's get this show on the road!

I. PRE-SALE TICKETS -- 3,000 TICKETS SOLD VIA RANDOM SELECTION NOV/DEC 2011 -- $420 + s/h -- LIMIT 4 PER PERSON

A Pre-Sale round will be conducted in November/December 2011:
• Participants seeking early access to full price tickets can register for the Pre-Sale during a two-week period from November 28 until December 11, 2011 (at 11:59pm PST).
• Entrants will need to provide a valid credit or debit card number at the time of registration.
• On or before December 19, a random drawing from the pool of entrants will be conducted to award 3,000 tickets at a Pre-Sale price of $420.
• If you are awarded tickets, your credit card will be charged for the total amount of your tickets at that time.
• Those who are awarded tickets will receive notification via email that their credit cards have been charged for their tickets, along with a gift certificate suitable for printing.
• Any entrants who do not receive one of these Pre-Sale Tickets will automatically be entered into the Main Sale.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby Rice » Sat Nov 19, 2011 8:40 pm

weather man wrote:Registration for the random selection Pre-Sale round of the $420 "gift certificates suitable for printing" begins in...4 business days.

The plan has been presented.I guess they've got a switch ready to throw. Let's get this show on the road!



The certificates are just to have something to wrap. One will need an actual ticket to enter BRC.

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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby EspressoDude » Sat Nov 19, 2011 8:55 pm

Decisions decisions..

Do I attempt to buy myself and spouse, and maybe 2 close friends overpriced "Christmas" tickets...or, do I buy my mom a turkey and my sister the computer she wants..



Decisions decisions..

either way it's a crap shoot
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby theCryptofishist » Sat Nov 19, 2011 9:26 pm

Given what I've heard about your sister, the choice is obvious.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby ygmir » Sat Nov 19, 2011 9:42 pm

theCryptofishist wrote:Given what I've heard about your sister, the choice is obvious.


If I said that, it'd sound tacky...........
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby theCryptofishist » Sat Nov 19, 2011 9:48 pm

ygmir wrote:
theCryptofishist wrote:Given what I've heard about your sister, the choice is obvious.


If I said that, it'd sound tacky...........

Oh, it sounds tacky when I say it too.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby tamarakay » Sat Nov 19, 2011 10:36 pm

damnit burningman SUCKS, and none of you should be signing up for christmas tickets. GO AWAY, DON'T BUY TICKETS, or register for the lottery. Dang it, stop lowering my chances.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby ygmir » Sat Nov 19, 2011 11:10 pm

theCryptofishist wrote:
ygmir wrote:
theCryptofishist wrote:Given what I've heard about your sister, the choice is obvious.


If I said that, it'd sound tacky...........

Oh, it sounds tacky when I say it too.



yeah but you have that je ne se qua that allows it.............
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby Tiahaar » Sun Nov 20, 2011 12:59 pm

* Tiahaar snickers *

oh, and I'm going in for the early holiday drawing too...
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby FIGJAM » Sun Nov 20, 2011 1:25 pm

And who the hell is Jennie C, Kwa?

I wish these damn noobs would post in the intro thread so's I could keep up. :x
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby bradtem » Sun Nov 20, 2011 2:42 pm

One could view the pre-sale tickets as just $30 more than the tier 3 tickets.

However, if you buy a $420 ticket it costs $420.

A main sale ticket has what we in math call an expected value. The average buyer will pay $326.25 for a ticket. Nobody pays that exactly, it's a gamble with different odds you will pay the different amounts. So from a logical standpoint, you should consider a pre-sale ticket as costing $93 more than a main sale ticket with a $390 max bid. Strictly speaking, the expected value is a bit different but we can't predict the numbers. That's because a $420 bid that fails becomes an automatic $390 entry in the main sale, so your expected value is the probability of winning in the pre-sale * 420 plus the inverse of that probability * $326.25. Or to get very fancy, you might not win in the main sale but again we don't know the odds of that. Bizarrely, if you lose the pre-sale but win the main sale you actually turn out better off. But it's likely a main sale ticket should be viewed as having a larger than $30 premium over the main sale.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby unjonharley » Sun Nov 20, 2011 3:10 pm

Are you going to buy a Xmas ticket? Or are you just going on and on about nothing??

bradtem wrote:One could view the pre-sale tickets as just $30 more than the tier 3 tickets.

However, if you buy a $420 ticket it costs $420.

A main sale ticket has what we in math call an expected value. The average buyer will pay $326.25 for a ticket. Nobody pays that exactly, it's a gamble with different odds you will pay the different amounts. So from a logical standpoint, you should consider a pre-sale ticket as costing $93 more than a main sale ticket with a $390 max bid. Strictly speaking, the expected value is a bit different but we can't predict the numbers. That's because a $420 bid that fails becomes an automatic $390 entry in the main sale, so your expected value is the probability of winning in the pre-sale * 420 plus the inverse of that probability * $326.25. Or to get very fancy, you might not win in the main sale but again we don't know the odds of that. Bizarrely, if you lose the pre-sale but win the main sale you actually turn out better off. But it's likely a main sale ticket should be viewed as having a larger than $30 premium over the main sale.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby trilobyte » Sun Nov 20, 2011 4:00 pm

And of course, remember that the proceeds of the premium-priced pre-sale tickets go to help provide more low income ticket opportunities. So if you really don't mind paying a little more to help your fellow burner (instead of funding a cheap ticket for some dude who camped on their computer and got lucky during the on-sale), now's your chance.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby bradtem » Sun Nov 20, 2011 4:14 pm

trilobyte wrote:And of course, remember that the proceeds of the premium-priced pre-sale tickets go to help provide more low income ticket opportunities. So if you really don't mind paying a little more to help your fellow burner (instead of funding a cheap ticket for some dude who camped on their computer and got lucky during the on-sale), now's your chance.


That's true in a broad sense. They go into the general fund, and because they do, when the ticket prices are planned, it allows there to be cheaper tickets and still reach the desired revenue levels.

But if this is the case, why is there a broad feeling that it would be wrong to solve the scarcity problem the normal way it is solved, with economics. There is so much fear of solving it with price that the lottery is the only solution BRCLLC saw, and people really are not fond of the lottery. Rapidly escalating prices for tickets beyond 35,000 would bring in lots of revenue to allow lower priced tickets for some, reduce scalping (as long as the price doesn't have to get super high) and slow or eliminate a sell-out. But this is resisted, because the result would be, as in other market-based systems, that the best way to get a ticket is to be wealthier.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby trilobyte » Sun Nov 20, 2011 4:21 pm

It's true in a very specific sense (Pre-Sale FAQ, 8th question). The best "chance" to get to Burning Man has been to be wealthier pretty much since the start of tiered ticket pricing. Anytime there are additional tickets available at a higher price, those who can afford to pay that price have greater opportunity.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby jcliff » Tue Nov 22, 2011 4:13 pm

One of my issues is that I had really hoped to purchase a gift ticket this year. I'm absolutely going to roll my dice for the presale, but I didn't really want to buy a gift ticket at the $420 rate. I'm hoping to get my ticket with the presale, but if I do I think I understand that I won't be able to enter the main lottery. Is that correct?
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby theCryptofishist » Tue Nov 22, 2011 4:17 pm

If yo don't win,. you will automatically be entered into the main drawing.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby mgb327 » Tue Nov 22, 2011 4:45 pm

Crypto, I think my only question at this point now is this: If I enter the pre-Christmas sale and lose, that means I will be automaticaly entered in the main lotto. I get this part. Question is...when I am entered into the main sale after missing the picks on the pre sale, will I be entered in all 3 tiers of the main sale? I want to enter the main sale, but at the top tier all the way down, or all 3. Will I be entered into a single tier, or all 3? Somehow, I can't see the obvious here. (need more caffeine)
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby theCryptofishist » Tue Nov 22, 2011 4:53 pm

You will be entered as wanting one or two tickets at the 390 price, which will automatically enter you in the two lower drawings.

Basically, you are entered as a regular entrant, and you are automatically entered into any tiers below the price you indicate.
(That piece of information may not be next to the piece about being carried forth into the general drawing.)
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby mgb327 » Tue Nov 22, 2011 7:27 pm

Thanks Crypto, I think I have it now. I sometimes can't see the obvious, and just don't want to take a chance that I might be interpreting this system incorrectly. I want my best chance at getting a ticket. I figured that if the Lotto Gods saw that I was willing to pay $420+ per, that they would put me in the top tier in the regular sale. How odd would it be if I get my ticket at the lowest tier price.....NOT counting on that. Thanks for your " 'splainin' " here. Hope to see you all on the Playa next year.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby DanusLight » Tue Nov 22, 2011 7:38 pm

Christmas tickets? What Christmas tickets? There are no Christmas tickets. Y'all don't know what you are talking about. Move Along. Nothing to see.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby graidawg » Wed Nov 23, 2011 9:26 am

bradtem wrote:One could view the pre-sale tickets as just $30 more than the tier 3 tickets.

However, if you buy a $420 ticket it costs $420.

A main sale ticket has what we in math call an expected value. The average buyer will pay $326.25 for a ticket. Nobody pays that exactly, it's a gamble with different odds you will pay the different amounts. So from a logical standpoint, you should consider a pre-sale ticket as costing $93 more than a main sale ticket with a $390 max bid. Strictly speaking, the expected value is a bit different but we can't predict the numbers. That's because a $420 bid that fails becomes an automatic $390 entry in the main sale, so your expected value is the probability of winning in the pre-sale * 420 plus the inverse of that probability * $326.25. Or to get very fancy, you might not win in the main sale but again we don't know the odds of that. Bizarrely, if you lose the pre-sale but win the main sale you actually turn out better off. But it's likely a main sale ticket should be viewed as having a larger than $30 premium over the main sale.


can you say that again slowly and in english please?
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby junglesmacks » Wed Nov 23, 2011 9:30 am

graidawg wrote:
bradtem wrote:One could view the pre-sale tickets as just $30 more than the tier 3 tickets.

However, if you buy a $420 ticket it costs $420.

A main sale ticket has what we in math call an expected value. The average buyer will pay $326.25 for a ticket. Nobody pays that exactly, it's a gamble with different odds you will pay the different amounts. So from a logical standpoint, you should consider a pre-sale ticket as costing $93 more than a main sale ticket with a $390 max bid. Strictly speaking, the expected value is a bit different but we can't predict the numbers. That's because a $420 bid that fails becomes an automatic $390 entry in the main sale, so your expected value is the probability of winning in the pre-sale * 420 plus the inverse of that probability * $326.25. Or to get very fancy, you might not win in the main sale but again we don't know the odds of that. Bizarrely, if you lose the pre-sale but win the main sale you actually turn out better off. But it's likely a main sale ticket should be viewed as having a larger than $30 premium over the main sale.


can you say that again slowly and in english please?


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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby Raymaker » Wed Nov 23, 2011 10:02 am

if we tell it straight, exactly how much it can cost to go to Burning Man (especially the first time) one could seriously reduced the number of people who might think of applying. last year was my first.

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Food and water (too much, as most probably do the first time)
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby AntiM » Wed Nov 23, 2011 10:09 am

You'll always have too much food and water. We met a nice group at a rest stop who had too much food and they gave it to us. Some of it went to the food bank, although we kept the yummiest stuff.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby bradtem » Wed Nov 23, 2011 10:46 am

graidawg wrote:

can you say that again slowly and in english please?


When you have an uncertain outcome with probabilities, like in lotteries, you calculate an "expected value" which is to say what the average value would be if you did something a zillion times. You won't buy a zillion burning man tickets but you will take tons of chances like this in your life and so the right way to think of the cost is to use this expected value.

Take simple gambling. If I offer you a coin toss where I pay you $1 for heads and $2 for tails, the break-even price for you to bet would be $1.50. That's because after 10 tosses you are going to pay $15 and probably get back $15. The "expected value" of each toss is $1.50. If I let you do it for less than $1.50 it's a win, if I charge more (like a Casino does) it's a loss. When you see slot machines advertise "98% payback" it means the expected value from a bet is 98 cents on the dollar, even though no given bet returns that.

Anyway, for the main sale of tickets, the expected value is $326.50 per ticket. You won't pay that, and you won't buy tickets too often in life, but that's how to treat the cost of such a ticket (mostly) compared to $420. It's not exactly that because there is some chance of losing either the pre-sale or main sale.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby Dr. Pyro » Wed Nov 23, 2011 10:50 am

I'm embarrassed to say that actually makes sense to me.
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby oneeyeddick » Wed Nov 23, 2011 11:13 am

Hey Bradtem, can you come to the Atlantis and help me count some cards ?
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Re: 3000 "Christmas" tickets.

Postby BBadger » Wed Nov 23, 2011 1:24 pm

bradtem wrote:Take simple gambling. If I offer you a coin toss where I pay you $1 for heads and $2 for tails, the break-even price for you to bet would be $1.50. That's because after 10 tosses you are going to pay $15 and probably get back $15. The "expected value" of each toss is $1.50. If I let you do it for less than $1.50 it's a win, if I charge more (like a Casino does) it's a loss. When you see slot machines advertise "98% payback" it means the expected value from a bet is 98 cents on the dollar, even though no given bet returns that.


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