'leftover' tickets - please check my math

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'leftover' tickets - please check my math

Postby clerkkent » Sat Nov 19, 2011 12:56 pm

Stated info:

I. PRE-SALE TICKETS -- 3,000 TICKETS $420

II. MAIN SALE -- 40,000 TICKETS
- $240: 10,000 tickets
- $320: 15,000 tickets
- $390: 15,000 tickets

III. SECONDARY OPEN SALE -- 10,000 TICKETS $390

IV. LOW INCOME/SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAMS: over 3,500

V. INTERNAL OFFICE USE/ MEDIA TICKETS (unknown)

Total number of tickets (and thus number of participants) would be a total of all 5 categories


Questions and assumptions:

1) So ticket quantities will definitely be over 57K, probably exceeding 60K.. presumably.


2) One the secondary open sale, does it include any unsold tickets from the 3000 presale allotment?

3) Do the unsold tickets from the main sale go into the secondary sale at their tiered price? i.e. if there were 3000 $320 tier tickets unsold from the main sale, will they appear as $320 tickets in the secondary sale, or do all tickets convert to the $390 price point? If so, the total tickets available in bracket III = [10,000 + unsold bracket II qty ]*$390 ?


3a) Tin foil hat conspiracy theory: if the latter holds true, would not the ORG have a financial motivation to *not* sell the lower priced tickets as any unsold tickets would be upped to the higher price?
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Re: 'leftover' tickets - please check my math

Postby lemur » Sat Nov 19, 2011 1:16 pm

clerkkent wrote:
V. INTERNAL OFFICE USE/ MEDIA TICKETS (unknown)



i dont believe media tickets exist.. maybe i am unawares of such..

Q. Do members of the press have to buy tickets?

A. Yes. The main premise of Burning Man is "Participate." That includes members of the press. Everyone who attends the event is required to purchase a ticket. Visit http://tickets.burningman.com/ to get yours. A receipt for reimbursement by your employer will be included with your ticket.
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Re: 'leftover' tickets - please check my math

Postby clerkkent » Sat Nov 19, 2011 1:23 pm

By 'media', I should have said 'public relations'. I'm referring to tickets they give to the local tribes, assorted community organizations in Reno, and perhaps/probably some political figures.
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Re: 'leftover' tickets - please check my math

Postby trilobyte » Sun Nov 20, 2011 6:42 pm

1) Most likely, though in 2012 (as in past years) the Org has not stated what the total number of tickets will be.
2) Yes
3) There is almost no likelihood of any tier 1 or tier 2 tickets 'surviving' the Main Sale. In 2011, half the total number of tickets to the event were sold in 48 hours. While it is unclear whether there will be registrations for more than 40,000 tickets, it is almost certain that there will be registrations for more than 25,000 tickets. If there are leftover tickets, they will come from the tier 3, which is the same price as the Secondary Sale.
3A) The first and second tiers will be drawn for (and sold) first.
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Re: 'leftover' tickets - please check my math

Postby Minxy » Wed Nov 30, 2011 3:57 pm

I was wondering how many tickets (of course they will never say) are going to be distributed for volunteers who have earned a reduced price or free ticket and as you mentioned, the tickets that are distributed to locals. Just my little brain working while I'm doing housework... It would be interesting to actually know how MANY tickets get sold/gifted.
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Re: 'leftover' tickets - please check my math

Postby trilobyte » Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:10 pm

As in previous years, that information is not published. This is actually the first year that quantities of tickets at each pricing tier have been posted (in the past, they only included quantity on lower tiers). It's possible you may find info in the AfterBurn report, but that doesn't get released until well after the event.
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Re: 'leftover' tickets - please check my math

Postby Ratty » Mon Dec 05, 2011 5:20 pm

I've received a ticket in the past that says 'gift' instead of a dollar amount. (Just in case you didn't think they exist).
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Re: 'leftover' tickets - please check my math

Postby Igneouss » Wed Dec 07, 2011 4:14 am

LLC stated (Marion) in one of the SF on line news outlets: The number of tickets to be sold in the final open sale will be based on the limits set by the new BLM permit. That permit has not been issued yet. After it is issued the LLC will adjust the number of tickets available in the final sale accordingly. Might be more...Might be less... (I'm guessing more. I think that this is the LLCs ace in the hole to stop rioting over the failed lottery system).
Basic b/e analysis:
2005 $243K
06 $855K
07 $1.0M
08 $1.1M
09 $0
10 $1.1M
11 $1.2M
12 $1.2M
That’s $6.8M that thousands of volunteers deserve to know about. Capitalism is alive at BM. Tickets are the commodity. Others have estimated higher profits.
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Re: 'leftover' tickets - please check my math

Postby trilobyte » Wed Dec 07, 2011 10:51 am

The number of tickets in the secondary sale won't be less than 10,000 tickets, and will also include any unsold tickets from the main sale.
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Re: 'leftover' tickets - please check my math

Postby Igneouss » Thu Dec 08, 2011 2:55 am

Number of attendees:
2010 to 2011 was a 4.88% increase. Using the same percentage for 2011 to 2012 gets you 56,600 +/- a few. Note that the wikipedia page lists 56,500 as a likely number of tickets in it's chart (but this number lacks attribution).

Increase 2011 to 2012 will be about 2633.

This should give a close idea on the number of tickets.
Basic b/e analysis:
2005 $243K
06 $855K
07 $1.0M
08 $1.1M
09 $0
10 $1.1M
11 $1.2M
12 $1.2M
That’s $6.8M that thousands of volunteers deserve to know about. Capitalism is alive at BM. Tickets are the commodity. Others have estimated higher profits.
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Re: 'leftover' tickets - please check my math

Postby trilobyte » Thu Dec 08, 2011 3:16 am

The increase from 2010 to 2011 was affected by the limited number of tickets. Evidence (stronger than expected/previous years initial demand, stronger than previous years' sales in the months that followed which led to the sell-out on July 24) suggests that had there been no limit on tickets in 2011, growth would have been perhaps 5-10% higher.

The number in the wikipedia article is likely based on the tickets listed on the ticket info page. 3K in the presale, 40K in the main sale, 10K in the secondary sale, and at least 3.5K via the low income ticket program (whose details will be announced after the main sale begins).
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Re: 'leftover' tickets - please check my math

Postby Eric » Thu Dec 08, 2011 1:59 pm

Igneouss wrote:(I'm guessing more. I think that this is the LLCs ace in the hole to stop rioting over the failed lottery system).


I'm still loving people calling a system that hasn't run yet a failure, even though it has apparently been working fine for Glastonbury for years (of course, Glastonbury didn't make the initial mistake of calling it a "lottery"...).
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Re: 'leftover' tickets - please check my math

Postby theCryptofishist » Thu Dec 08, 2011 4:38 pm

Eric wrote:
Igneouss wrote:(I'm guessing more. I think that this is the LLCs ace in the hole to stop rioting over the failed lottery system).


I'm still loving people calling a system that hasn't run yet a failure, even though it has apparently been working fine for Glastonbury for years (of course, Glastonbury didn't make the initial mistake of calling it a "lottery"...).


I myself am utterly charmed (that is a synonym for "stupified" isn't it?) by the idea that people think that the llc has all these extra tickets that they are just holding on to in case they need to calm unruly tempers. Maybe they have 500,000, but only want to use one tenth.

Do you realize that in 1913, the three-hundredth year of Romanov power, there were people in St. Petersburg who thought there would be an amnesty on goods hocked to pawnbrokers? People will believe all sorts of wierd stuff.

I will not name names.
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Re: 'leftover' tickets - please check my math

Postby Dr Helix » Thu Dec 08, 2011 5:05 pm

theCryptofishist wrote:
Eric wrote:
Igneouss wrote:(I'm guessing more. I think that this is the LLCs ace in the hole to stop rioting over the failed lottery system).


I'm still loving people calling a system that hasn't run yet a failure, even though it has apparently been working fine for Glastonbury for years (of course, Glastonbury didn't make the initial mistake of calling it a "lottery"...).


I myself am utterly charmed (that is a synonym for "stupified" isn't it?) by the idea that people think that the llc has all these extra tickets that they are just holding on to in case they need to calm unruly tempers. Maybe they have 500,000, but only want to use one tenth.

Do you realize that in 1913, the three-hundredth year of Romanov power, there were people in St. Petersburg who thought there would be an amnesty on goods hocked to pawnbrokers? People will believe all sorts of wierd stuff.

I will not name names.



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Re: 'leftover' tickets - please check my math

Postby theCryptofishist » Thu Dec 08, 2011 9:21 pm

I read. A lot. And I've been doing it for decades. And I retain some part of it. It all adds up. Still, there are people on this board who've seen order of magnitudes more movies and music shows than I have. So many pop culture comments just go *whoosh* over my head.
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Re: 'leftover' tickets - please check my math

Postby lemur » Fri Dec 09, 2011 12:46 am

way to go on reading those books.
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