Yet another possible solution (LOOONG post)

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Yet another possible solution (LOOONG post)

Postby bmix » Tue Nov 15, 2011 12:02 am

[DISCLAIMER: This post is a honker. I tend to write long, and I like to "show my work," as it were. Sit, relax, have some coffee. You've been warned :twisted: ]

There's been a lot of discussion about the ticket system for this year; some good, some bad, and some batshit insane. I wanted to mull it over for a bit before weighing in, so I slept on it, had lots of freaky dreams involving math, server loads, and Scarlett Johansson, and came up with the following. The length of the post isn't an indication of complexity, as the concepts are fairly simple; I just wanted to try and cover EVERY possible issue that I could think of. So here goes...

I think the core reason everyone is so upset (even though they may articulate it poorly sometimes) is that the following things are true with any random "lottery" system:

    There is a mathematical chance (albeit slim) that any individual participant will not be able to purchase a ticket
    There WILL be some participants that are unable to purchase a ticket

These are the "new" problems. There are a few "old" problems as well:

    Server meltdowns on Ticket Day
    Dirty rotten scalpin' bastidges (I consider this an old problem, as it's from last year)

So, what can be done to fix all of this crap? Let's break the problem into chunks. In an ideal, utopian, world-without-end system:

    1) Each participant should have the same opportunity to make the effort to get a ticket
    2) The servers should be able to handle the load required by #1
    3) The system should not cost any more (in money or effort) to administer than the old system
    4) Scalping would be eliminated

It should be mentioned at this point that, obviously, there is no such thing as a perfect system, so some of the requirements will have to be bent or broken. With these things in mind, let's look at #1. This one's easy: Don't do a lottery. The problem with lotteries is that someone, somewhere, WILL lose. Random number systems decouple the effort of the participant from the reward. Therefore, let's remove the lottery from any solutions right off the bat.

This immediately throws us to #2, server issues. Currently, the Org has pricing tiers that allow people to pay a reduced price for tickets, if ordered early, and also (I assume) provide the Org with a boost of cash to assist with planning the current year's event, with pricing set up to encourage early purchase. There are also subsystems in place to help those who need it (the low-income and scholarship programs), which are handled manually by BM staffers; these should remain unchanged.

I know from experience that this is a fairly expensive event to attend, and the ticket is just the tip of the iceberg. If you can't afford the ticket, you probably will have extreme difficulty getting the rest of your shit together to go. At least for me, this is indeed the case: the ticket is typically less than 10% of my total outlay. Now, it should be known that my friends and I put together a small theme camp; however, most of my costs still fall to transportation, food, and other things that would happen whether I did a camp or not.

For these reasons, I'm going to make a bit of a jump here and state that, for many of us, it wouldn't matter if we were paying $225 or $350 for a ticket. Yes, a hundred dollars-plus is a noticeable chunk of change, and I'm not arguing that... But I will say if you really have THAT much trouble affording the ticket, your experience is probably going to be negatively impacted by your inability to purchase other things the event will require. And theme camp or no, Burning Man requires a LOT.

So, following this line of thinking, to partially meet the requirements of #2, the system of pricing tiers should be abandoned. Its original purposes no longer apply, assuming that the LLC should have enough funds and/or credit to do the event planning without needing the January cash bump. The benefits the tiers once created have been outweighed by the problems they cause, and there are already methods in place to help those truly in need.

That's a huge step, but it gets us halfway there on the issue of server load, as we've eliminated the need to buy first-day due to pricing. However, as of last July, there's a new first-day-purchase need: scarcity. Last year's event sold out, which has created a NEW need to go for a ticket grab when the servers come online.

So even without the tiers we're STILL pimp-slapping the servers in January. What now? There are two basic approaches that could resolve this:

    Increase transaction processing capacity by one of several means, OR
    Lessen the server load by dividing purchases over time

It seems the LLC has a distinct aversion to using anyone besides InTicketing, and really, they've been working with us for years, and in spite of numerous cock-ups come ticket day, I would be loathe to see that relationship disappear. Burning Man is a unique event, and having a responsive vendor who understands its needs is a good thing. Plus, I don't think changing companies is even on the table, so we'll strike that idea and say, if one were to go with the first part of this solution (increasing capacity), then perhaps the Amazon back-end cloud, or some other online solution, might be of interest to supplant the existing infrastructure, at least for the one day of the big ticket sale.

The other part of this solution to issue #2 may be more palatable, if a bit clunky: Divide the server load over time. Here's what I propose:

    1) Divide the available tickets into five groups (50,000 tickets would then become 5 groups of 10,000)
    2) Divide the alphabet into FOUR parts (A through F, G through N, etc.). Assign Monday to A-F, Tuesday to G-N, and so on until Thursday
    3) Only allow transactions from people whose last name begins with the appropriate letter on the appropriate day
    4) The last name used comes from the credit card used in the transaction
    5) Have a staffer comb the list of the day's transactions to cull out "line-jumpers" and other anomalies
    6) Refund any bad transactions and place those tickets in Friday's pool

Friday would be open (no letter assignments) so that anyone who got kicked back, or was unable to get a ticket on the other days, would be able to try at that time. From Friday onward, tickets would be open and available to anyone.

There are a few obvious drawbacks to this approach... It's at least somewhat confusing, as there is only one particular day you would be able to purchase tickets. I'd respond that it could be made clear on the purchase page that only certain last-name letters would be taken that day. Also, I doubt this would be any more confusing than what we've seen so far in regard to the lottery system (although we're being told that more info is coming, so I'll hold on this point for now).

I realize this violates rule #3 that we set forth at the beginning; namely, that more resources (a staffer or staffers to comb through the list for each day) would be used to implement this. I would posit that the lottery would be more complicated regardless, but again must ease off that point until I see the rest of the info. One could make the case that the task could be handled automatically via spreadsheet sorting, but I would prefer a human be at the wheel in the case of last names such as "Van der Beek" (would that be B or V? You get the idea). If the lottery does turn out to be as labor-intensive as I think it will be, then this no longer violates the ruleset, but we have no way of knowing that at the moment, so we should probably leave this as-is for now and move on.

As far as upsides to this method, there's really only two, but they're big: everyone has the same opportunity to get a ticket, and (at least if everyone plays nice) the servers would never see more than 25% of the load they normally would get. If participants don't play nice and follow the chart, their money's refunded and they get no ticket, at least not til they try again on Friday. When Friday comes, most all participants would have already completed their purchases, so the server load should be about the same as the other days.

Finally, yes, January's Ticket Day would become five days of potential server hell instead of one. It's my belief that by reducing the load so drastically (we're dropping it by 3/4ths here), the issues won't be as prevalent as they have been.

That covers the mechanics of selling, but we're still stuck with #4--scalpers. For this one, I'm going to have to punt--I don't think there really is a solution here, as we've been stuck with scalpers for as long as the concept of scarcity has existed. I mean, there ARE real solutions that would work, but how far are we willing to go? One possible solution to this was brought by (I think) Shambala in another thread--make the tickets non-transferable. The LLC would then buy them back if necessary and sell them to someone else.

The only problem I can see with this method is that everyone would need some sort of ID to prove that the ticket is indeed theirs when entering the gate, which introduces its own set of issues. In the final analysis, I think if we could figure out how to get rid of scalpers at THIS event, we'd all be rich, as the rest of the world might pay handsomely for that info.

Trilobyte said in another thread that the Org is actively looking at other solutions and giving them consideration. So, here's mine. Shoot some holes in it, beat it up and make it stronger. Let's see how far down the rabbit hole we can go. I'm going to bed shortly and likely won't reply to questions/flames/etc. till the morning. Thanks for reading all of this, and have a good one.
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Re: Yet another possible solution (LOOONG post)

Postby trilobyte » Tue Nov 15, 2011 12:17 am

Non-transferrable tickets would be a disaster (significant amount of resources to administrate, plus it would largely require holding the entire year's ticket revenues in reserve until the event (assuming the start of the event would be the end of the refund period). Ouch. Further, there's room for unfairness due to name distribution across letters not being equal, and probably having some variation from year to year.

The Org has been looking at other options… for the last several months. They've considered and reviewed tons of them, they've talked with and consulted with people producing all kinds of events of many shape and size, and I believe that they have arrived at the direction they're taking for the 2012 event (though other options could certainly have an impact for future years). Sure, a poorly run ticket lottery could suck bigtime. But they might have come up with something that won't be poorly run. The details are not yet available (but the info is coming soon).
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Re: Yet another possible solution (LOOONG post)

Postby Elderberry » Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:18 am

Everybody's trying to build a better one.
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Re: Yet another possible solution (LOOONG post)

Postby Rice » Tue Nov 15, 2011 8:35 am

The ticket selling systems are not owned by Burning Man!!


About 15 people have suggested a process similar to what you are describing.

Anyone who suggests that people will need photo ID at the gate, along with a ticket, simply has no idea what that will do to the entry times.

People barely can find their tickets at the gate, having to have photo ID and show it for each ticket would simply double the gate processing times.


A stupid, different solution:
What everyone needs is a RFID chip embedded in their arm. When a ticket is purchased it is allocated to a particular person's chip. Therefore, the ticket cannot be lost. All the gate staff would need to do is scan the chip and vola. Having said that, I do not think my own idea will work. (Privacy issues, technical concerns, excessive cost, medical concerns, etc.)


We still do not know how the ticket lottery is going to work. The details have not been released.

At this point, the Burning Man Organization is not going to change the process again. They are going to stick with what they have announced. After Burning Man 2012, the process will be reviewed, analysed, tweaked, and refined.
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Re: Yet another possible solution (LOOONG post)

Postby wh..sh » Tue Nov 15, 2011 8:54 am

You lost me at the "LOOONG post", sorry!
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Re: Yet another possible solution (LOOONG post)

Postby tamarakay » Tue Nov 15, 2011 9:04 am

stretch80 wrote:
At this point, the Burning Man Organization is not going to change the process again. They are going to stick with what they have announced. After Burning Man 2012, the process will be reviewed, analysed, tweaked, and refined.


at which point there will be much screaming wailing snarking and gnashing of teeth. It's how we roll.
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Re: Yet another possible solution (LOOONG post)

Postby theCryptofishist » Tue Nov 15, 2011 10:40 am

stretch80 wrote:A stupid, different solution:
What everyone needs is a RFID chip embedded in their arm. When a ticket is purchased it is allocated to a particular person's chip. Therefore, the ticket cannot be lost. All the gate staff would need to do is scan the chip and vola. Having said that, I do not think my own idea will work. (Privacy issues, technical concerns, excessive cost, medical concerns, etc.)

You forgot accidental amputation.
Just saying.

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Re: Yet another possible solution (LOOONG post)

Postby bmix » Tue Nov 15, 2011 12:00 pm

stretch80 wrote:The ticket selling systems are not owned by Burning Man!!


About 15 people have suggested a process similar to what you are describing.

Anyone who suggests that people will need photo ID at the gate, along with a ticket, simply has no idea what that will do to the entry times.

People barely can find their tickets at the gate, having to have photo ID and show it for each ticket would simply double the gate processing times.


A stupid, different solution:
What everyone needs is a RFID chip embedded in their arm. When a ticket is purchased it is allocated to a particular person's chip. Therefore, the ticket cannot be lost. All the gate staff would need to do is scan the chip and vola. Having said that, I do not think my own idea will work. (Privacy issues, technical concerns, excessive cost, medical concerns, etc.)


We still do not know how the ticket lottery is going to work. The details have not been released.

At this point, the Burning Man Organization is not going to change the process again. They are going to stick with what they have announced. After Burning Man 2012, the process will be reviewed, analysed, tweaked, and refined.


All correct. InTicketing (as far as I know) owns or leases the servers involved. As far as the gate ID requirement goes, I put it in my post to try and hit all the relevant issues, and was the only thing I'd found that dealt with scalpers. I probably shouldn't have included that bit at all, as that part wasn't my idea (though I tried to provide attribution). My own issue with it was that it smacks of some sort of "poll tax," but I didn't want to add to the length of an already overlong post. The main thing that I wanted to highlight (and the part I spent the most time on) was the division of server load over time, as that seems to have been the main complaint over the last few years, up until the sellout issues.

Providing that Burning Man sells out again (which I think is likely this year), there will be many who will not get tickets regardless of what we say here, and regardless of how the Org handles the issue. Whenever there is a finite number of any resource, someone will lose out. I believe we're all aware that we may not get a ticket. It's the apparent randomness of the process that has people upset, is all. I was trying to figure out a way that would be more equitable to those willing to put in the effort to get one, rather than "letting the fates decide" or some such.

That being said, yes, Trilobyte, full details haven't been released. I understand this (and said as much 3 or 4 times). But no matter the odds, no matter how it's built--it's still being put forth, at this point, as a lottery. I'm very sure the Org was prepared for everybody to go bonkers over this... perhaps they should have presented the details after they were finalized. There is one other possibility, though: that they introduced the idea as a "floater" to see what the response would be, and to prompt the community for new solutions (which was my reason for the post). Either way, I'm waiting with everyone else to see what the details will be.

Finally, seriously, it's awesome that this got replies. I didn't expect ANY after I saw the wall-o-text I posted. So, yeah. Thanks, guys.
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Re: Yet another possible solution (LOOONG post)

Postby Campmaster » Tue Nov 15, 2011 6:16 pm

I like your well thought out arguement. As a 13 year Burner I've always kinda enjoyed the stress and effort to try and get that first tier ticket (it still takes WAY less time than actually getting a theme camp hauled up there), but it always does have server problems.

It seems the point of the lottery is to try and make the tiered pricing "fairer" - but the point of the tiered pricing is to reward early purchases.
Since you can't do both I say sell the 1st 30,000 at $240 (the average of the 1st 3 tiers) and sell the 2nd 20,000 at $320 (as they do now).

If that's too tough, sell all tickets at $270 (the average of all tiers).

Then to discourage scalpers limit each credit card number to 2 tickets only (like tier 1).

I'm certain I'm missing something, but it seems more manageable than a lottery and non-transferable tickets-
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Re: Yet another possible solution (LOOONG post)

Postby bmix » Tue Nov 15, 2011 10:09 pm

Campmaster wrote:I like your well thought out arguement. As a 13 year Burner I've always kinda enjoyed the stress and effort to try and get that first tier ticket (it still takes WAY less time than actually getting a theme camp hauled up there), but it always does have server problems.

It seems the point of the lottery is to try and make the tiered pricing "fairer" - but the point of the tiered pricing is to reward early purchases.
Since you can't do both I say sell the 1st 30,000 at $240 (the average of the 1st 3 tiers) and sell the 2nd 20,000 at $320 (as they do now).

If that's too tough, sell all tickets at $270 (the average of all tiers).

Then to discourage scalpers limit each credit card number to 2 tickets only (like tier 1).

I'm certain I'm missing something, but it seems more manageable than a lottery and non-transferable tickets-


I think you nailed it there... With last year's sellout, we've learned our lesson, and EVERYBODY is going to try to purchase early regardless. The LLC will get the funds they need from tickets no matter what happens. After that, the only reason left for tiered pricing is for purposes of subsidization, and while that's an admirable goal, I feel the event's at a point where first-day purchases almost need to be discouraged somehow. Even though it's very likely I would wind up paying more this go-round than I have in the past, I still would agree the tiers have outlived their purpose, and and are now causing more problems than they solve.

The non-transferable tickets bit was added in at the end of my first post just to touch on the issue of scalping. Trilobyte made a good point about ID checks making the gate harder to manage than it already is, which wouldn't make for the best solution, and I wouldn't imagine it's being considered at all. So no worries there. Unless we want to dive into some truly draconian measures in regards to checks at the gate or some such, I think we're stuck with the dirty scalpin' bastidges for the time being.
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Re: Yet another possible solution (LOOONG post)

Postby trilobyte » Wed Nov 16, 2011 1:34 am

The point of tiered pricing is not to reward early purchases, it's to provide a sort of 'honor system' method to allow those with greater means to help out those with less. Before the current financial crisis, a lot of people in the burner community were under-employed or just plain barely making ends meet and scrimping and saving all year long to be able to make it out to the event. A tiered system makes it possible for those folks to get a ticket below cost (of course, dumbasses thinking it was simply a first come, first serve discount fucks up that idea).

FWIW, it seem like most armchair event producers fail to consider weights into their pricing models (volume of tickets at each price tier), which only makes their broad-stroke simplifications seem more poorly thought out.
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Re: Yet another possible solution (LOOONG post)

Postby bmix » Wed Nov 16, 2011 2:00 am

trilobyte wrote:The point of tiered pricing is not to reward early purchases, it's to provide a sort of 'honor system' method to allow those with greater means to help out those with less. Before the current financial crisis, a lot of people in the burner community were under-employed or just plain barely making ends meet and scrimping and saving all year long to be able to make it out to the event. A tiered system makes it possible for those folks to get a ticket below cost (of course, dumbasses thinking it was simply a first come, first serve discount fucks up that idea).

FWIW, it seem like most armchair event producers fail to consider weights into their pricing models (volume of tickets at each price tier), which only makes their broad-stroke simplifications seem more poorly thought out.


Rewarding early purchases may not be the point of the tiered system as intended, but it has become the result. Whether they truly need a cheaper ticket or not, most of us try to snag one as soon as we can, and I think that effect will be made worse this year by the bugaboo of scarcity.

So here's one last thing before I drift off into slumberland... Trilo, you seem to know more about this sort of thing. What do you think would happen if you just reversed the tiers? In other words, do the same exact thing as last year, but with the most expensive tickets first? Do you think the first batch would never sell (people waiting for the cheaper ticket) or would it cock up the works in some other way? I never see the backend so I don't know the dynamics involved.
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Re: Yet another possible solution (LOOONG post)

Postby Bounce530 » Wed Nov 16, 2011 9:10 am

Flipping the tiers is discussed in this thread-
http://eplaya.burningman.com/viewtopic.php?f=290&t=52450
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Re: Yet another possible solution (LOOONG post)

Postby tamarakay » Wed Nov 16, 2011 9:28 am

Partial tier sales in each lotto? say you are having 10,000 tier one tickets, only 5000 are given out in first lotto, 5000 2nd tier, 10,000 third tier etc. Each lotto have some of each tier?
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Re: Yet another possible solution (LOOONG post)

Postby Rice » Wed Nov 16, 2011 10:25 am

tamarakay wrote:Partial tier sales in each lotto? say you are having 10,000 tier one tickets, only 5000 are given out in first lotto, 5000 2nd tier, 10,000 third tier etc. Each lotto have some of each tier?


Everything being discussed at this point, is pure speculation (guessing, theories, fantasies, and wishfull thinking).

The BM Ticket page http://tickets.burningman.com should have the latest details. Also, make sure you have subscribed to the JRS http://burningman.com/blackrockcity_yea ... lists.html

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Re: Yet another possible solution (LOOONG post)

Postby tamarakay » Wed Nov 16, 2011 10:41 am

stretch80 wrote:
tamarakay wrote:Partial tier sales in each lotto? say you are having 10,000 tier one tickets, only 5000 are given out in first lotto, 5000 2nd tier, 10,000 third tier etc. Each lotto have some of each tier?


Everything being discussed at this point, is pure speculation (guessing, theories, fantasies, and wishfull thinking).

The BM Ticket page http://tickets.burningman.com should have the latest details. Also, make sure you have subscribed to the JRS http://burningman.com/blackrockcity_yea ... lists.html

Rice


Yes I know, and that is what i'm doing, speculating.
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Re: Yet another possible solution (LOOONG post)

Postby Rice » Wed Nov 16, 2011 10:49 am

tamarakay wrote:
stretch80 wrote:
tamarakay wrote:Partial tier sales in each lotto? say you are having 10,000 tier one tickets, only 5000 are given out in first lotto, 5000 2nd tier, 10,000 third tier etc. Each lotto have some of each tier?


Everything being discussed at this point, is pure speculation (guessing, theories, fantasies, and wishfull thinking).

The BM Ticket page http://tickets.burningman.com should have the latest details. Also, make sure you have subscribed to the JRS http://burningman.com/blackrockcity_yea ... lists.html

Rice


Yes I know, and that is what i'm doing, speculating.


There is nothing wrong with that!! ;) You are doing it right!
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