It "could" be true?

[Trishntek]

I don't think real demand increased two, three or four fold. I guess one indicator would be the number of people signed up for JRS (also the number who were signed up when tickets sold out last year). That would be a good proxy.

I still think it is scalpers (or scalpels if you prefer).

I think it is a perfect combination of a number of factors. No one single answer suffices.

You're almost certainly correct.

I accept that real demand from burners for tickets increased dramatically. Say like 40%. That would mean that the ~60k people who wanted tickets last year increased to say ~80-85k. Based on a rejection rate of ~2/3, people must have submitted to buy at least 120k tickets (I think the number is much, much higher based on our camp's 85% failure rate). I know that the SF theme camps aren't sitting on the tickets. I hear distant noise from burner acquaintances that a ticket or two are unclaimed but there's little evidence a lot tickets sitting with actual burners. So I'm thinking that scalpers are big driver of this calamity.

Still waiting to hear from BRC. I think they have another week to give a more robust response per the Guardian article.

I took a look at the actual census since 1995 when there was the first official theme and the event had settled onto the playa as its permanent home. The average attendance grew by 13% each year since then.

If tickets were not sold out last year, based upon historical growth, the actual attendance would have been about 58k. Based upon that number for another 13% growth this year, we are looking at a probable 65k persons who would actually make it to the playa. This would be a reasonable number based on historical data which does NOT take into account the first years of exponential growth.

Between those who truly want to be there and those who were forced to apply for the lottery prior to considering the logistics, it is not outrageous whatsoever to believe there are at least twice as many people(not applications) desirous of going this early in the year.

[Galaxo Magic]

ps. there are only good adventures posted on youtube. don't people take footages of the bad things that can happen?
(I'm not all to great at film capturing, otherwise I would have filmed my monkey hut getting ripped apart from the dust storm that occurred the Thursday before the event started in 2010 - On second thought, I couldn't because was hanging on to the tarp and flexible PVC that was threatening to tear my arm off while screaming for help - last time I will build a shade structure at 3AM!!!!)

2010, the last great wind storm. Pre-Saturday we had just finished getting our Monkeyhut up when the wind came from an unusual direction, broadsiding the monkeyhut. It ripped the tarp, broke a couple of PVC poles, it was all hands on deck to try and save the hut. No one was thinking of a video camera. We released the tarp and managed to get it under some wood, then ran across the street to help the Stanford band camp with their flailing monkeyhuts. Wow. Later that day we found that one of the 1/2" rebar stakes that the PVC was on had been sheered off by the PVC pipe!

Yeah, wish we had some video of that!

[Galaxo Magic]

I hear a lot of talk about the Dr Seuss video as if it were the main culprit in the sell out, so I went back and watched it again. While I love that video, I don't see much on there that would entice a birgin to attend.

Well, I was not impressed with that video, gave a false sense of BM. No hard work, no dust, just people. Sure you might have a hard time with your feels or be alone for a while. Crikey, Birgens watching that would think it was a cakewalk.....

We need some Dr. Dusty-Seuss videos....

[mshaman]

I took a look at the actual census since 1995 when there was the first official theme and the event had settled onto the playa as its permanent home. The average attendance grew by 13% each year since then.

If tickets were not sold out last year, based upon historical growth, the actual attendance would have been about 58k. Based upon that number for another 13% growth this year, we are looking at a probable 65k persons who would actually make it to the playa. This would be a reasonable number based on historical data which does NOT take into account the first years of exponential growth.

Between those who truly want to be there and those who were forced to apply for the lottery prior to considering the logistics, it is not outrageous whatsoever to believe there are at least twice as many people(not applications) desirous of going this early in the year.

I really like this number as a baseline for what would happen if there were no extreme external influences. But how do we account for the most relentless, ubiquitous viral ad campaign ever? Everywhere I go, burners are commemorating themselves and their experience through social media. I think it has finally reared its head. I think we're looking at 65K + untold throngs who watched so many youtube videos that they decided to go without really knowing what they were getting into.

[SquirrelHead]

Savannah I love the videos! I can't wait for my first dust storm. I am also making sure I have 12 inch steel stakes for my tent.

[vargaso]

I took a look at the actual census since 1995 when there was the first official theme and the event had settled onto the playa as its permanent home. The average attendance grew by 13% each year since then.

If tickets were not sold out last year, based upon historical growth, the actual attendance would have been about 58k. Based upon that number for another 13% growth this year, we are looking at a probable 65k persons who would actually make it to the playa. This would be a reasonable number based on historical data which does NOT take into account the first years of exponential growth.

Between those who truly want to be there and those who were forced to apply for the lottery prior to considering the logistics, it is not outrageous whatsoever to believe there are at least twice as many people(not applications) desirous of going this early in the year.

I really like this number as a baseline for what would happen if there were no extreme external influences. But how do we account for the most relentless, ubiquitous viral ad campaign ever? Everywhere I go, burners are commemorating themselves and their experience through social media. I think it has finally reared its head. I think we're looking at 65K + untold throngs who watched so many youtube videos that they decided to go without really knowing what they were getting into.

While yeah, historically it's not as easy as it was in 2011 (and hence, the Dr. Seuss video), even in more typical years, it's not THAT hard. Seriously, it's easier than regular camping. Forget a food item? Walk down the street and someone will be serving up free food. Forget some gear? Merely suggest you need some help and every more prepared/experienced neighbor in your radius will drop everything to get you situated. Dust storms? Shocking at first, but ultimately, fun. The more you bring out there, the harder it gets in that complex structures/art can be fucked up by a storm. But for newbies with a tent and some bikes? No problem.

By the way, I wonder what would happen if a really serious storm like the one described here in 2002 hit while the event was at full capacity? Not pretty, I would think.

http://www.damer.com/pictures/events/bu ... guide.html

[Colonel Monk]

While yeah, historically it's not as easy as it was in 2011 (and hence, the Dr. Seuss video), even in more typical years, it's not THAT hard. Seriously, it's easier than regular camping. Forget a food item? Walk down the street and someone will be serving up free food. Forget some gear? Merely suggest you need some help and every more prepared/experienced neighbor in your radius will drop everything to get you situated. Dust storms? Shocking at first, but ultimately, fun. The more you bring out there, the harder it gets in that complex structures/art can be fucked up by a storm. But for newbies with a tent and some bikes? No problem.

By the way, I wonder what would happen if a really serious storm like the one described here in 2002 hit while the event was at full capacity? Not pretty, I would think.

http://www.damer.com/pictures/events/bu ... guide.html

OK, you're doing it wrong! Radical Self-Reliance.

I'm the first to help out my neighbors but I would go around telling people it's OK to arrive without the stuff YOU need and then go sponge it off neighbors.

THIS IS HOW PLAYA BARS RUN OUT OF BEER!!!!!

But seriously, it's import than people can take care of themselves, that's the whole point.

That said, I will never stop lending my battery charger, jumper cables, tools, etc, and fixing people bikes, cars, tents, whathaveyou.

Having too many newbs *could* throw off the balance. A couple years ago there was this group of 4 kids about 18 riding my MV, they only brought with them a large container of mini pretzels to eat. No water either, and they were freezing to death. Yeah, there is playa fare out there and the intent is to share it with people, but you don't go there planning to sponge off the community either.

As for whether or not it's difficult - what's easy for you and me is impossible for others. Example - we allowed 4 people to camp on the corner of our established camp 3 or 4 years ago - first dust storm they got in their car and left nearly everything behind: bikes, sleeping bags, tent, garbage, chairs, broken umbrellas.

Such bullshit. A friend radioed the gate and HAD THEM SENT BACK to pack their shit. When they got back we told them that we did it - we had spent the few days prior showing them the ropes and sharing and then they fucked us - they fucked ALL OF US.

This is happening more and more often in an alarming trend after the event and it's not okay. I want newbs to REALLY understand what LNT is and what it means and come prepared to use the playa and leave it in as good a condition as you found it or stay HOME.

So if the even really does have that many Newbs, who's gonna radio the gate and force them to do their part?

[AntiM]

You can borrow our gorilla bar and kneecap them?

[Galaxo Magic]

I'm the first to help out my neighbors but I would go around telling people it's OK to arrive without the stuff YOU need and then go sponge it off neighbors.

THIS IS HOW PLAYA BARS RUN OUT OF BEER!!!!!

But seriously, it's import than people can take care of themselves, that's the whole point.

That said, I will never stop lending my battery charger, jumper cables, tools, etc, and fixing people bikes, cars, tents, whathaveyou.

Having too many newbs *could* throw off the balance. A couple years ago there was this group of 4 kids about 18 riding my MV, they only brought with them a large container of mini pretzels to eat. No water either, and they were freezing to death. Yeah, there is playa fare out there and the intent is to share it with people, but you don't go there planning to sponge off the community either.

As for whether or not it's difficult - what's easy for you and me is impossible for others. Example - we allowed 4 people to camp on the corner of our established camp 3 or 4 years ago - first dust storm they got in their car and left nearly everything behind: bikes, sleeping bags, tent, garbage, chairs, broken umbrellas.

Such bullshit. A friend radioed the gate and HAD THEM SENT BACK to pack their shit. When they got back we told them that we did it - we had spent the few days prior showing them the ropes and sharing and then they fucked us - they fucked ALL OF US.

This is happening more and more often in an alarming trend after the event and it's not okay. I want newbs to REALLY understand what LNT is and what it means and come prepared to use the playa and leave it in as good a condition as you found it or stay HOME.

So if the even really does have that many Newbs, who's gonna radio the gate and force them to do their part?

I commend you on notifying the gate. We had a similar thing happen to us but had been at the Burn. They were long gone.

In 11 years I have probably only gotten drinks from other camps and bars 30 or 40 times, usually because I know them. I have never 'bar hopped'. We give out beer and mixed drinks but that isn't part of our camps gifting. Beer makes me want to pee, so I tend to go with hard alcohol. Make my own. Playaritas rock. Some of the bars serve a kind of jungle juice. Who knows whats in it. I like what I like, so I make my own and am self-sufficient.

[bradtem]

I presume the reason good weather bumps the population is not newbies, but that a whole bunch of people come back who otherwise would not have.

After all, as you know, there are always lots of virgins every year. Even when the city barely grew it has seemed like 30% or more virgins. Which means that not everybody is like me, going for 14 years straight. A large fraction of people decide not to return. For some, they may decide the event is not for them, but I am guessing a lot decide the playa is not for them, that it is just too harsh. So if, for a year, it is not harsh, those folks will come back. And if they were virgins they will tell their friends, "Hey, it's not that bad out there."

But there have been pleasant years before, but nothing to account for 120,000 requests for 40,000 tickets.

[pinemom]

wonder if I can change the name too: IT IS TRUE 120K people wanna go!

[BBadger]

You could just omit the "it is true" part too.

[pinemom]

ya, what was I thinking.




More dust, need more dust, ya, thats it.