Lotto... tempting regular folks into scalping?

[pink]

The STEP program is supposed to be set up BEFORE the tickets are mailed. Or so I was told in a PM. So the transfer would be taking place through the BORG, not paypal.

Actually much easier than last year's mess with scammers & fake tickets.

[A Jester]

I'm baffled by the lottery fans who refuse to acknowledge that this system brings a fresh set of problems and challenges. The inflated sense of scarcity (real and/or perceived) and the problems with planning major projects are issues that are so obvious with the new system, it's virtually self-evident. Go ahead and be a fan of the lottery, but don't put your head in the sand about the new reality. I'm no fortune teller, but yeah, there are simply factors at hand that could be gleaned from a couple of 101 classes in psych and econ.

Another thing that makes me sad about the lottery? The latent animosity it sort of encourages. If we weren't all competing for tickets at the moment, we'd be having a lot more fun on here, I guarantee it. I certainly would. I'll be going to BM, even if I have to pay some a-hole 1000 dollars for a ticket, but this whole system has just been such a drag. Just my opinion.

I haven't met anyone who doesn't acknowledge there are new problems and challenges with the new system. Some people think the new problems are probably better than the old problems, that's all.

I'm going to go out on a limb, and suggest that perhaps whatever econ and psych 101 classes you took gave you a false sense of knowledge.

The false sense of knowledge that the econ and psych 101 classes I took gave me tells me that there are going to be a lot of Burners selling their tickets to their friends. Then, there are going to be a lot of Burners with extra tickets. Maybe a few will try to profit off of them. I think most of them will just be happy to get their money back. Just like last year, there will be some scalpers. I think that just like last year people will bid up their auctions and prank their sales so that they have difficulty selling their tickets. As time passes on, some of the hoarders will start to sell their tickets for face, just to not have to deal with scalping any more. As this happens, more people will want to hold out for face value tickets. The closer it comes to the actual event, the more people will be selling their tickets for face value.

Will some tickets get sold above face? Probably. It sounds like you're ready to buy one.

The planning issue is real. Some people will decide not to prepare a big art project this year. IF this year turns out like I think and hope it will, I bet that most of those people will go big on art next year. If it doesn't work out, well those type of people doing those type of art projects won't be on playa any more.

That's an example of a problem with the new system.

[Mofessor]

"The false sense of knowledge that the econ and psych 101 classes I took gave me tells me that there are going to be a lot of Burners selling their tickets to their friends. Then, there are going to be a lot of Burners with extra tickets. Maybe a few will try to profit off of them. I think most of them will just be happy to get their money back. Just like last year, there will be some scalpers. I think that just like last year people will bid up their auctions and prank their sales so that they have difficulty selling their tickets. As time passes on, some of the hoarders will start to sell their tickets for face, just to not have to deal with scalping any more. As this happens, more people will want to hold out for face value tickets. The closer it comes to the actual event, the more people will be selling their tickets for face value. "

All along the way there are people who have said, "don't worry, it will all be fine." A "few" people might apply for more tickets than they need. A "few" people might have enough extra $$$ to purchase extra tickets. A "few" burners might get their shit together and register for the lottery.

Every step along the way they've been wrong, but they continue with the BMORG party line. How very Rumsfeldian.

[trilobyte]

All throughout the ticket madness last year (from when the event sold out in July to the start of the event), there were people posting exactly the same kind of doom and gloom and predictions it would destroy camps and art cars and it would be a horrible burn because only the tourist/frat party crowd could afford to pony up for scalped tickets and those who suggested differently were fools and suck-ups and whatever… and it was arguably one of the best burns ever. So many amazing camps. So many incredible pieces of art. So many epic mutant vehicles. The trend appears to be continuing.

[Elorrum]

All throughout the ticket madness last year (from when the event sold out in July to the start of the event), there were people posting exactly the same kind of doom and gloom

ah, the good old days, when we didn't get doom and gloom until July.

[pink]

Darn right you young whippersnapper! Back in the old days we didn't get to bitch about how burning man was utterly ruined until after the burn. Now you guys get to rend your clothes and gnash your teeth for almost a full year!

[feistypenguin]

I believe I read that the STEP program will be up and operational shortly after the lotto results come in. That would give people MONTHS of time to transfer reserved tickets in an official manner, before they are delivered and readily scalp-able. I would imagine that having tickets only "officially" available in this manner would let BMORG control scalping much more tightly... since they would run the platform people would be trading tickets on.

Of course this is speculation on my part, because nobody has seen how STEP works. I for one am reserving judgement until I see STEP in action. I'm sure they will run into bugs and kinks since it is version 1.0, but I remain optimistic unless I have reason to believe otherwise.

[pink]

From what I understand, you'll be trading tickets through BMORG, rather than scouring eplaya posts for a ticket, or making an eplaya post and scouring responses like last year. Might even be that BMORG takes back the extras and then reissues them to people looking.

It's gotta be a better system than what was going on last year with the scammers; at times it seemed like the Nigerian email scam done burner style. If you weren't on here last year, there were people that got a picture of a ticket/confirmation and posted it on craigslist & ebay (the same ticket, over & over), tales of overt fakes, and some really good counterfeits. People trying to buy tickets had to call BMORG to validate that the person was selling a real ticket, and when everyone at BORG left for the playa, if you were trying to get one the week or two before the burn, you couldn't even do that.

[curiousgnate]

just a friendly reminder that last year there were problems with the resale ticket verification process. and they closed it some time before BM started. people were waiting to get tickets verified etc, and couldn't and just had to go on faith that the tickets were real etc. what are they going to do this year with all of the verification requests? they think that putting names on tickets is cost/staff prohibitive, well get ready this will be much more costly to do correctly. that being said do i think they will do it well? no i don't! they will mess it up and chalk it up to a learned experience and not accept responsibility. this has happened time and again with the servers dying on ticket sales dates, and did they fix it while still using that system? no they didn't instead they chose not to spend the money it would take for that system to work. now there is a new system that they can say they are going to work on, when in fact they will just let things happen and then deal with the repurcussions afterward!

[A Jester]

All along the way there are people who have said, "don't worry, it will all be fine." A "few" people might apply for more tickets than they need. A "few" people might have enough extra $$$ to purchase extra tickets. A "few" burners might get their shit together and register for the lottery.

Every step along the way they've been wrong, but they continue with the BMORG party line. How very Rumsfeldian.

Care to post some evidence of these multiple people saying those four things? Or was this just a Fox News style "some people say" sort of thing?

(sorry couldn't resist turning that table on you)

[lemur]

last year there were problems with the resale ticket verification process

they think that putting names on tickets is cost/staff prohibitive,

they will mess it up

they can say they are going to work on, when in fact they will just let things happen

why dont you become one of the THEY and volunteer to help make the process better? you seem to imply having seen problems occur many times.. why havnt you stood up and helped out ?


ya know.. there is no THEY.. because we are all just one community making this all happen..

you dont think larry would go out camping in the black rock desert without the rest of us, do you?

it aint us vs. them.. its us vs. us!!!!

[lemur]

BECOME ONE OF THE THEY: OWN YOUR OWN PROBLEMS:

http://www.burningman.com/participate/volunteer.html

[curiousgnate]

oh honey there most definitely is a they. and if you don't think there is then go take a walk around first camp and try and get in! hahahahhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

[Savannah]

To compare anything regarding Burning Man to Donald " Abu Ghraib Torture & Prisoner Abuse" Rumsfeld is astonishing and shamefully hyperbolic . . . as well as unnecessarily flattering to Donald Rumsfeld.

He can't spin fire worth shit.

[curiousgnate]

hi savannah, i love how you pop in to lighten up situations! smoochies, and i am part of the community but there is absolutely a part of this organization/business, that does not always have our best interest at heart!

[Savannah]

Love you, N8ey.

I can make no claims as to the Org's intentions. I'm just a friggin' volunteer here.

I'm waiting to see how it all shakes out, myself, and it'll take me months to pass judgment. I'm in the lottery like everyone else (1 ticket, all tiers). Maintaining hope and not freaking out--until absolutely necessary, haha!--is what I would be doing anyway.

[A Jester]

BECOME ONE OF THE THEY: OWN YOUR OWN PROBLEMS:

http://www.burningman.com/participate/volunteer.html

+100000

To compare anything regarding Burning Man to Donald " Abu Ghraib Torture & Prisoner Abuse" Rumsfeld is astonishing and shamefully hyperbolic . . . as well as unnecessarily flattering to Donald Rumsfeld.

He can't spin fire worth shit.

You just made my night.

[Savannah]

BECOME ONE OF THE THEY: OWN YOUR OWN PROBLEMS:

http://www.burningman.com/participate/volunteer.html

+100000

To compare anything regarding Burning Man to Donald " Abu Ghraib Torture & Prisoner Abuse" Rumsfeld is astonishing and shamefully hyperbolic . . . as well as unnecessarily flattering to Donald Rumsfeld.

He can't spin fire worth shit.

You just made my night.

For now, the lottery is--at worst--on par with a Kardashian. A Kardashian who might actually have a ticket for you, if she can remember where she put it. Infuriating, & no guarantees, except that if you win, there will probably be some nudity, and too many cameras.

[DrBlitz]

I actually played by the rules. I signed up for the two tickets I need and now I'm probably going to get punished for it.

My suggestion:
1) BMOrg stop the process. The tickets haven't been awarded, so they aren't bound to award them
2) Each ticket will be tagged to a name. Every ticket will ship with that name printed on it in August.
3) At Gate, each ticket must be accompanied by a form of Photo ID (how many burners you think don't have one?)
4) Tickets may only be transferred between people through STEP. Once an exchange is agreed, BM refunds the cost of the original ticket to the original buyer and accepts the cost from the new buyer.

There are some issues (like kids without ID and ticket exchange after tickets are shipped) that need to be worked out, but they are not insurmountable.

That way, there can be no hoarding because having more than one ticket does you absolutely no good. And the best part is that it could all be handled automatically.

[lemur]

I actually played by the rules. I signed up for the two tickets I need and now I'm probably going to get punished for it.

punished how ?


in what way will you be punished?

how are you being punished ?

[A Jester]

I actually played by the rules. I signed up for the two tickets I need and now I'm probably going to get punished for it.

punished how ?


in what way will you be punished?

how are you being punished ?

I'm pretty tempted to rip him/her a new...

ahhhh nevermind.

[alt12]

All that was true the minute tickets sold out last July. Scarcity is the problem. If it was done via first come, first serve the boards would be filled with people screaming bloody murder about the event having completely sold out already.

No, perceived scarcity is the problem. There isn't that much actual scarcity. There is a minor surplus of demand over the allowable allotted tickets (easily less than 10%). There is no way to know of course but I don't see why all 50,000 tickets would sell out on the first day. There is no evidence that what took 5 months to happen would happen in 5 hours this year. Most people (those that didn't procrastinate) were not impacted whatsoever by the selling-out and weren't significantly concerned about selling out this year because we knew we could do what we always we do which is buy on day 1 and beat the thousands of virgins who don't make their decision until later in the year.

It is only with this lottery "system" that the concept of scarcity has been deeply embedded in everyone's psyche leading to a general (and false) conclusion that there is a serious shortage of tickets. THis has resulted in massive over purchasing, hoarding, etc. (and why not, with so much uncertain injected into the ticket buying process, any rationale actor would try to increase their chances of getting a ticket by co-ordinating with others to purchase extra) such that the tickets now did sell out in 5 hours. The lottery system created the very problem it was trying to avoid.

Apparently no economics or psychologists working at bmorg as this qualifies as behavioral economics 101....

[lemur]

Apparently no economics or psychologists working at bmorg as this qualifies as behavioral economics 101....

it says that you live in San Francisco.. and your post seems to imply knowing at LEAST ecnomics 101 and psychology 101, as well as behavioral economic 101.


Why dont you volunteer to help out?

http://www.burningman.com/participate/volunteer.html

[lemur]

No, perceived scarcity is the problem[citation needed]. There isn't that much actual scarcity[citation needed]. There is a minor surplus of demand[citation needed] over the allowable allotted tickets (easily less than 10%[citation needed]). There is no way to know of course but I don't see why all 50,000 tickets would sell out on the first day. There is no evidence that what took 5 months to happen would happen in 5 hours this year. Most people (those that didn't procrastinate) were not impacted whatsoever by the selling-out and weren't significantly concerned about selling out this year[citation needed] because we knew we could do what we always we do[citation needed] which is buy on day 1 and beat the thousands of virgins who don't make their decision until later in the year.

It is only with this lottery "system" that the concept of scarcity has been deeply embedded in everyone's psyche[citation needed] leading to a general (and false) conclusion that there is a serious shortage of tickets[citation needed]. THis has resulted in massive over purchasing, hoarding, etc. (and why not, with so much uncertain injected into the ticket buying process, any rationale actor would try to increase their chances of getting a ticket by co-ordinating with others to purchase extra) such that the tickets now did sell out in 5 hours. The lottery system created the very problem it was trying to avoid[citation needed].

there i uhm, fixed that for ya..

I think trilo is right.. scarcity is in fact the problem... we wouldnt even be discussing this if there wasnt a limit on the population set by the BLM.

[Mofessor]

All along the way there are people who have said, "don't worry, it will all be fine." A "few" people might apply for more tickets than they need. A "few" people might have enough extra $$$ to purchase extra tickets. A "few" burners might get their shit together and register for the lottery.

Every step along the way they've been wrong, but they continue with the BMORG party line. How very Rumsfeldian.

Care to post some evidence of these multiple people saying those four things? Or was this just a Fox News style "some people say" sort of thing?

(sorry couldn't resist turning that table on you)

here's what I dug up in about 15 minutes, I'm sure you can find more:

The main sale is structured so that even if there's a stronger than usual increase in ticket demand, there should still be enough tickets to go around (trilobyte)

That's great that you and your friend are not only down with hoarding, but that you're in a spot where you can both tie up all that extra money until sometime in June (well the hoarding bit's not great). I don't see the rest of the Burning Man community being in that kind of situation, both from the paranoia standpoint and the financial standpoint. (trilobyte)

woohoo that you guys can all spare twice as much cash for tickets (they won't be fulfilled until June, don't expect the ability to transfer will call tix before fulfillment happens), but I don't think the majority of participants feel the same way you do (or are in the same financial situation). (trilobyte)

the "lotto" is nothing more than just a panic attack because in the end we will all get a ticket (mamachicken32)

I am just realistic enough to know that with 40,000 tickets on sale in the main drawing the likelihood of getting one is pretty damn high. (Eric)

I'm betting that there'll be a glut of T3 tickets from the main sale adding to that as well. This may be even more than were available for sale at that time last year. (bbadger)

There will be plenty of tickets to go around. (TT120)

if by some small chance you don't get in on a couple of those 40,000 tickets available, you'll have to try in March, when there's a remote chance that those will sell out before you buy yours (Davoid)

[theCryptofishist]

Apparently no economics or psychologists working at bmorg as this qualifies as behavioral economics 101....

It is with immense difficulty that I did not roll my eyes here. But I have one question: How much will ticket prices have to rise to employ all the different specialists that the llc now needs to have?

Whoops, I found another question: How much bemoaning of the loss of the "real burningman" will we have to endure once the course of the culture is so led by economists?

[trilobyte]

@DrBlitz - not being awarded tickets is not "being punished" - but let's hope you're successful (there will be a lot of tickets awarded). For a number of reasons (which have been discussed several times on the board) I think name on tickets for all attendees would be a bad idea, I'm glad that is not an option for this year.

@alt12 - it's actual scarcity. Even if you had some magic means by which you could eliminate both scalping and any kind of panic-hoarding, tickets to the event would have already sold completely out by now in an unrestricted open sale. People would still hoard for campmates and art projects, and in the wake of last year's sellout those who bought later in the year made plans to buy early this year.

[MedullaB]

Our community's reaction to the lottery saddens me. At this point it is only speculation that the rush on tickets is burners 'hoarding tickets'. It could easily be scalpers or a legitimate increase in demand.

I understand there are sound reasons behind this years changes, but with the added delay/staggered release of the theme, this year seems to have a very different feel to it so far. The feeling I have now is very similar to what I feel during exodus... leaves me wondering what happened to that burner spirit of putting your neighbor's needs on par with your own. Instead I see a me first, if you don't get tickets deal with it...

Certainly it is too late to change this years method of ticket sales. I hope though, that lessons are learned that help to find an improved method of ticket distribution.

Radical inclusion is something that I believe Burning Man wholeheartedly achieves. However, the event has peaked at its ability to 'radically include' all citizens of our world. Sadly, the event cannot get any larger. For many of us fortunate enough to experience BM, it has become intertwined in our lives and is difficult to imagine not attending. Not attending because we did not 'win' a ticket would be even more devastating.

I am sure there are implications I have not considered but something I would like to see is the following:

Having an unlimited pre-sale of tickets for sale shortly after the current years event ended whereby you could buy a single ticket for the next event provided you had a unique ticket identifier from the current year. i.e. If you went this year, you are guaranteed a ticket next year - provided you are willing to pay top tier. Since BM's radical inclusion of participants stemmed from word of mouth, tickets could also be passed on to those new people from those who choose not to go a second year.

This year has also shown that there needs to be a better model for low tier tickets - the current model really only means a bonus for those who get them. I would be curious if anyone applied only for tier 1 in the lotto.

Like most, if I do not get my lottery ticket, I will try the open sale - and based on previous success in getting tier 1 tickets, I am confident I will get a ticket. However, it will now be March, and I will likely still not know if all of my camp mates have tickets yet.

I wish everyone who only applied for the tickets they needed best of luck in the lottery!

Cheers,

MB

[videoparker28]

I refuse to stop building...Art Car Fram built...safety in mind...and if it's late Aug...I WILL GET A TICKET=)

[jorgebongo]

The Lotto is a fine idea, but why can't Burning Man be the sole reseller of the ticket? You get it through Burning Man you sell it or GIFT it through Burning Man. That eliminates scalpers,craigslist, ticket hub, that sleazy dude standing on the corner with the that sign 2 tickets for sale etc..and still promotes gifting. You don't need a name on the ticket. Just a safe place to exchange the ticket proper with out getting burned(no pun intended).
I think the one thing that is the biggest concern is that we loose control of the price once the ticket goes out on the open market. And as far as us "regular folks" not scalping the ticket-I just hope all this good vibe shit is good enough to sway 10000 to 20000 people not to pay for there burn by selling those extra tickets...lets hope