Limits to Growth of Burningman

[some seeing eye]

This is not a ticket thread, more a philosophy thread. (If the mods want to move it, no objection)

Demand grows as O(n**2-n) "Order n squared - n". So demand grows geometrically as friends tell friends and falls by the number of attendees that decide not to return. (you could argue that it is even greater than O(n**2) with all the media/ Internet attention) Supply, set by the BLM, grows arithmetically O(n) "Order n", roughly 10% per year +-.

Even if there were no BLM limits, it is not possible to logistically grow the event to meet the demand, or maintain the culture with the demand by new attendees.

There is a pretty good argument that the event can grow much larger before peaking, then ultimately declining, because it's replaced by competitors, the attendees age out, other more compelling pastimes emerge; natural cultural forces.

That means a permanent condition of scarcity ongoing, which until last year had not been encountered.

The dials available are ticket price, ordering rules, ticket transfer rules, on site rules that discourage attendance by certain demographic or sociographic classes (what would happen if there were no RVs, or no sound camps, for instance), LEO inconveniences, publicity, various arrival/ departure controls, holding it on public vs private land, regionals focus, or?

[Ugly Dougly]

Northern Burn in September and Southern Burn in early summer.
Else see this spiral into chaos.

[ygmir]

location has a lot to do with this, also.
the ingress and egress, and time required, start to make logistics tough, and, safety concerns increase.

There is only a certain number of vehicles per hour that can move along 447 to Nixon (where it could concievable split in half), but more likely, to I80.

IIRC, there was info that said, if everyone in BRC tried to leave at once (when population is at it's peak, probably Saturday), the last person in line, would leave the playa sometime on Tuesday. Approximately 3 days in line.

Many lanes or avenues of egress from the playa, can be made, but, the ultimate limit is 447.
Jungo is not a viable option for any amount of traffic.

[gyre]

I suggested long ago that a longer event would spread out the demand over time.

That's how carnivals do it.

[CornMan]

I keep hearing that 447 is the limiting factor, but I have never hit stop and go traffic on the paved road. You're not calling the dirt road 447 are you? When I'm driving to the playa, I get passed because I don't like driving my RV very fast, but I'm still going about 50 mph until I hit the dirt road. I still go about 10-15 mph on the dirt road until it splits into several lanes of clogged traffic. On exodus, it's stop and go until we hit the paved road, then it's 50 mph+ with plenty of space between traffic. I see more rear enders on my morning commute to work than I've ever seen on 447.

[lemur]

447 is a concern and it has and can/does back up onto the pavement during entrance floods.

the capacity of gate road (multiple lanes) is roughly 7000~ average sized cars.. (throwing trucks/rv/s into that mix surely doesnt help)

there are multiple lanes on gate road.. this makes it easier to contain that many vehicles

once the gate road fills up and traffic backs up onto 447 the situation get bad quickly as 447 is just one lane.

the cars moving on gate road are moving at about 0.4mph on average..

even under the best of situations.. where cars keep coming one every 10 seconds it will cause the 447 road to be at a backup stand still of 1 mile of cars per hour.

as cars are moving on gate road are moving at about 0.4mph these cars are coming up against a veritable stand still.

any backup poses a danger of drawing the ire of the nevada state troopers/LEOs/BLM

ingrees and egress from the event site is important for its survival and the free movement of emergency vehicles.


if we assume 10,000 vehicles arriving at the event site within the first rush after the gate opens.. and the fact that it can take well over 6-8+ hours to process them all we are easily looking at multi-mile long backups on 447.. backups that can impact the town of gerlach.. we dont want that.

I havnt seen it for myself, but i hear tell about backups reaching all the way to gerlach on times when the gate is moving slowly, in times of high capacity or when the gate is closed for whatever reason..


i dont remember the exact figures.. on lanes and gate booths..
but the numbers add up quickly


4 lanes×(4 miles)/(13 feet)=6500~ vehicles gate road can hold on the dust (avg vehicle length of car 13 feet)

6500 vehicles × (30 seconds to process each ) / 6 gate booths = 9 hours to process all of gate road

3500 vehicles x 13 feet (avg length of car) = 8.6 miles (on a single lane road bumper to bumper on 447 pavement)

Distance from Gerlach to Burning Man turn off = 9 miles.

1 vehicle (13 feet long) every 10 seconds x 1 hour 20 minutes = about 1 mile of cars


adding 1 second to each transaction between gate staff (like to check a name on an ID against a ticket) and 25,000 individuals (in 10,000 cars):

25000 people × (1 second) / 6 gate booths = 1 hour 10 minutes added on to the time it takes the people at the end of the line to get through

..every 1~ hour delay may possibly cause 1 mile worth of backup on 447 so long as gate road is at its capacity of about 6500 vehicles and 1 new vehicle arrives on 447 every 10 seconds (it could be more)


(edited to add more stuff)
(edit#2: i am not gate staff, i dont know how many booths the gate has and i dont know how many lanes are actually on gate road or its length.. this is just guestimates and 'back of the napkin' math)

[Bounce530]

its only 'simple math' because youre making up the numbers!

[lemur]

if we assume

I havnt seen it for myself, but i hear tell a

i dont remember the exact figures..

may possibly...... (it could be more)

(edit#2: i am not gate staff, i dont know how many booths the gate has and i dont know how many lanes are actually on gate road or its length.. this is just guestimates and 'back of the napkin' math)

yeah!! i did make up those numbers up ..... i didnt actually claim they were anything but made up back of the napkin numbers...


do you have any facts about the numbers of lines in the gate road or the length of it or how many 'booths' the gate crew uses?

what part of "i dont know" "i dont know" "this is just guestimates" "may possibly" "it could be more" "i dont remember" "i havnt seen it for myself" and "if we assume" makes you believe that these numbers are anything BUT what i claimed them to be ?

its only 'simple math' because youre making up the numbers!

you surely miss my point, the point isnt accuracy, of facts.. the point is that this shit is big numbers, lots of people and it adds up quickly..

do you refute that ?

do you not believe that 447 is an issue because i didnt know how many lanes gate road has ???

[lemur]

its only 'simple math' because youre making up the numbers!

that quote of mine is a response to this post which links to a thread where the person also claims to have used 'back of the envelope' math to make up the numbers:

For the # of tickets requested I do some simple math here:
viewtopic.php?f=290&t=53769

on this thread:

viewtopic.php?f=290&t=53763&start=60

[Bob]

'Refudiate,' 'misunderestimate,' 'wee-wee'd up.' English is a living language.
Shakespeare liked to coin new words too. Got to celebrate it!

- Sarah Palin

[Bounce530]

Just pointing out the fact that with the tear you've been on for the last three days, where you are arguing just about every point that anybody brings up you're boarding on hypocrisy.
Breathe Lemur, breathe.

[lemur]

can!!!!


i shoulda said can.

[lemur]

Just pointing out the fact that with the tear you've been on for the last three days, where you are arguing just about every point that anybody brings up you're boarding on hypocrisy.
Breathe Lemur, breathe.

what makes you think im exasperated ?


BIG FONTS IN CAPSLOCKS?

or !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! EXCLAMATION POINTS?


I guess you probably also think the guy with the megaphone at burning man ACTUALLY dislikes you! or is actually pissed off, too ?

[Bounce530]

well, if you're holding the megaphone, maybe. HA!

Anyway, just seems every topic I open, there you are, trying to correct people with your opinion, and it seems to come off as heated.

And the last two topics I read, where the one that I quoted you from, and then this one, where it's seemed to me, you were telling somebody off for using "back of napkin math" and then there you are doing it yourself.

[lemur]

well, if you're holding the megaphone, maybe. HA!

Anyway, just seems every topic I open, there you are, trying to correct people with your opinion, and it seems to come off as heated.

And the last two topics I read, where the one that I quoted you from, and then this one, where it's seemed to me, you were telling somebody off for using "back of napkin math" and then there you are doing it yourself.

i will remember to be offended if i see you more than once at burning man.

[Bob]

Beaver Ridge, GA is looking for primates who can write up math problems, I hear.

[Ugly Dougly]

I suggested long ago that a longer event would spread out the demand over time.

That's how carnivals do it.

Yeah, but people come and go. At BRC, we're "trapped". Unless there are multiple burns.

[Mojojita]

This is not really a math problem, napkin or no. For better info, feel free to research what criteria the BLM uses to issue it's permit for use of federal land for the festival. The population cap is a condition of that permit. Although a blank slate, the playa is not a parking lot - it is a somewhat fragile resource that the BLM is charged with protecting. Although I am not a big fan of how well government does anything, this is one thing worth doing and something that must be at the heart of the growth of this event. It's not about how many cars and people we can squeeze in, it's about responsible growth and protection of the environment. That environment that we need to protect also includes the communities and land along the 50 (or so) miles of two-lane highway 447.

I can tell you firsthand that standing at greeters station on opening night before the gates open, you can see a line of cars waiting not just back through Gerlach but all the way until it disappears behind the hills near Empire.

In order to better allow for the faster growth you want, maybe it would be advisable to hold a big event in a more accessible, less fragile place. I will keep coming to the playa though because for all it's growth problems, it is a very, very special place.

[gyre]

I suggested long ago that a longer event would spread out the demand over time.

That's how carnivals do it.

Yeah, but people come and go. At BRC, we're "trapped". Unless there are multiple burns.

Multiple weeks is my suggestion.

The crowd only peaks on the weekend now.

[Ugly Dougly]

One burn for multiple weeks?
People come to see the man burn. Are you suggesting mulitple man burnings or a single man burn stretched somehow over multiple weeks?

[ZaphodBurner]

One burn for multiple weeks?
People come to see the man burn. Are you suggesting mulitple man burnings or a single man burn stretched somehow over multiple weeks?

Maybe a giant spit-roast!

Fact, most of you people would just quit your job and live there anyway.

[gyre]

It's up to us how we do it.


I think it would spread out attendance.

[BBadger]

Nice complexity notation. On what data did you base that on? Or none at all?

Here is my analysis of the population growth trends:

population_through_2016.png (131.75 KiB) Viewed 1446 times

2010 and 2011 were almost exactly on the linear growth trend line.

Evidence suggests that this event's population will grown linearly as it has in the past. Last year's population as well as the previous year's were nearly spot on.

This doesn't mean that populations won't fluctuate or be artificially limited by population caps, viral videos, recessions, lotteries, etc. but I fully expect that growth will follow pretty much the same trend as it has before. Interestingly enough, if the trend continues and we receive the 70k-max 5-year permit, we might see a return to below-cap populations by 2016.

[some seeing eye]

The data shows exponential growth between 1986/1991(first year at Black Rock) and 2000. It took a pause for the dot com bust and with heavy LEO activity. Exponential growth between 2003 and 2007. Then another pause for the 2009 recession. YMMV.

[AntiM]

The data shows exponential growth between 1986/1991(first year at Black Rock) and 2000. It took a pause for the dot com bust and with heavy LEO activity. Exponential growth between 2003 and 2007. Then another pause for the 2009 recession. YMMV.

2009 plus 2008 was a shitty year for dust. Weather does have a direct effect.

[chickendinner]

We won't be done until BM covers the entire planet, like a virus

[ygmir]

We won't be done until BM covers the entire planet, like a virus

try crossing the road and saying that.

[Bob]

We won't be done until BM covers the entire planet, like a virus

try crossing the road and saying that.

I think s/he meant fungus.

They make unguents for that.

[ygmir]

We won't be done until BM covers the entire planet, like a virus

try crossing the road and saying that.

I think s/he meant fungus.

They make unguents for that.

don't be psilocybin, you know what they meant

[Dr. Pyro]

And to think Yggy, after all this time I thought you were a fungi.