Playa Climate Prediction Center

[Desert_Rat]

Technical discussion for next week:

"Few changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Weak ridging over the
intermountain west holds steady Sunday with a relatively deep area
of low pressure off the Pacific northwest coast. Models continue to
have difficulty resolving this area of low pressure and its
progression inland. The GFS has been trying to split the trough,
with the main energy heading across the northern rockies and the
weaker split remaining over the eastern Pacific. The ec and Gem both
hold the area of low pressure together, but differ greatly in the
progression inland, with the ec more progressive than the Gem.


Depending on which model ends up handling the first system
correctly, it will greatly impact the weather into next week. With
the GFS solution, the northern branch of the low is well east and
and the offshore portion stays over the eastern Pacific, allowing
ridging to build into the west. In the ec and Gem solutions, it
opens up the path to allow a secondary trough to drop into the west.


With either solution, a very dry air mass remains entrenched across
the region, and so will keep the forecast dry. Increased winds with
gusts 30 to 35 miles per hour can be expected Sunday ahead of the low, but wind
the rest of next week will be dependent on the track the low takes.
Have kept temperatures fairly close to seasonal norms to also
account for the uncertainty. Models are notoriously bad with
handling closed lows, especially during transition seasons such
as we are approaching in late August, therefore confidence remains
low in the long term."

[junglesmacks]

All forecasts are mild, 90 day, 40 night, 5-20 mph winds.

40 at night? Not so much! Try barely breaking 50s!

Keeps looking better and better...excellent.

Are you high on bath salts again? Did you not just read your own NWS regurgitation about a gnarly little low coming in from the Pac NW on Sunday with winds ahead of it?


WE'RE SO FUCKING DOOMED

[junglesmacks]

As far ahead as we can see right now.. and taken directly from the NWS for on-playa weather:

[theCryptofishist]

Fair wino and following seas.

[weather man]

Mild winos that will lay down in the early evening.

[theCryptofishist]

May the wino always be at your back...

[VultureChow]

Fishy, you are the wino beneath my wings.

[MacGlenver]

Wind!

[skippy3k]

Every time I read this thread, it makes me want to drink.

[CrispyDave]

Every time a bell rings a Angel get's his Wino....

[RedHeaven]

Desert Rat, I find Wunderground to be a little too low in their temps, I go by noaa.gov, which predicts fairly decent temps as well
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 19.354&e=0

Just a little higher than wunderground.

However it is not the temps I am worried about, nor the dust or wind, its the SMOKE
Smoke is the fucking true armageddon, everything else is pleasant in comparison.
I was reminded of this yesterday when the Chips fire smoke invaded our world super fierce. Unbearable!

So at this point I am just praying for fire containment of the Rush fire especially which is west of BRC, and that stubborn Chips fire in the Feather River Canyons!!! At least Dust smells nice.

ANyone hear of any air quality reports from the playa?

[MacGlenver]

However it is not the temps I am worried about, nor the dust or wind, its the SMOKE
Smoke is the fucking true armageddon, everything else is pleasant in comparison.

I can't imagine that the playa will be innundated with smoke though... I mean I expect some haze, particularly noticeable at sunrise/set, but I would think that would actually make for prettier rises/sets, no? We're not going to be choking on smoke out there, I think. I'll note that I don't believe that any of the on-playa updates have mentioned smoke other than to say that they see a bit of a haze over the mountains.

PS -- I love the smell of wood smoke, so here's hoping we get some of that!

[Ratty]

I slept through that 2010 rain. It was a welcome relief from the dust that was building. I think I saw that same sparkle pony pushing a bike. And then I saw another and another. Pulled up a chair for the show. Getting to the potties was a barefoot trip. That little bit of rain was a real pleasure.

[CrispyDave]

Desert Rat, I find Wunderground to be a little too low in their temps, I go by noaa.gov, which predicts fairly decent temps as well
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 19.354&e=0

Just a little higher than wunderground.

However it is not the temps I am worried about, nor the dust or wind, its the SMOKE
Smoke is the fucking true armageddon, everything else is pleasant in comparison.
I was reminded of this yesterday when the Chips fire smoke invaded our world super fierce. Unbearable!

So at this point I am just praying for fire containment of the Rush fire especially which is west of BRC, and that stubborn Chips fire in the Feather River Canyons!!! At least Dust smells nice.

ANyone hear of any air quality reports from the playa?

Current conditions of the Rush Fire in Northern California/North Western Nevada
If you are coming from the Northwest be advised that Smoke Creek Road is closed it is one of the roads people use coming in from NorCal.
http://inciweb.org/incident/3151/

[Bob]

Dang. I've taken that road by Robber's Roost a couple times, lots of dry sagebrush.

[RedHeaven]

Sigh....even the forest has to burn......and the sage brush....not just art!
Smoke reports til Friday, I think thats when they expect containment of the Rush fire. After yesterday's smoke fest here in GV NC I feel really bad for the workers lungs out there. Kynd Hippie Zinc Vibes their way. Hopefully it was only a hint and not the kind of blast we got. Ours is mostly from Chips fire which is burning steep grades of heavy timber. Gnarly.

Most uncomfortable I have ever been at a fest/event was High Sierra Music Fest in 2008. That was the summer there were fires all over norcal. Smoke was brutal as it filled up that Quincy valley....I dont think BRC will be that bad but I'm still sending vibez, brah.

[weather man]

I can't imagine that the playa will be innundated with smoke though... I mean I expect some haze, particularly noticeable at sunrise/set, but I would think that would actually make for prettier rises/sets, no? We're not going to be choking on smoke out there, I think. I'll note that I don't believe that any of the on-playa updates have mentioned smoke other than to say that they see a bit of a haze over the mountains.
PS -- I love the smell of wood smoke, so here's hoping we get some of that!

Reports over the last two days say smoke. It looks like smog/fog. You will smell it (depending on wino), and people with respiratory sensitivity will feel it. Two weeks ago, we had trouble seeing the mountains at the edge of the playa (3-5 miles away) and the sun was up there, but muted- reminded me of an eclipse- not as much light as there *should* be with the sun so high in the sky. You'll see the moon, but stars maybe not so much.
Or maybe it will blow through with the disturbance I'm expecting this weekend?

[MacGlenver]

Reports over the last two days say smoke. It looks like smog/fog. You will smell it (depending on wino), and people with respiratory sensitivity will feel it. Two weeks ago, we had trouble seeing the mountains at the edge of the playa (3-5 miles away) and the sun was up there, but muted- reminded me of an eclipse- not as much light as there *should* be with the sun so high in the sky. You'll see the moon, but stars maybe not so much.
Or maybe it will blow through with the disturbance I'm expecting this weekend?

Well, another added benefit is that lasers will look even cooler

[Desert_Rat]

The prognostication for *after* Sunday is what I was most interested in. Not looking fun for those setting up Sunday evening.

It could be 100° every day for all I care and 30°at night...my concern was continual daily high winds (and epic, non-stop white-out). The smoke *does* add an additional element (pun intended), however...

[Bob]

NWS says the monsoonal moisture is gone and they're forecasting no heat waves thru early September. I'd still count on the typical afternoon dust-ups, though, and mandatory sage smudging from the Rush fire for another week or so.

[RedHeaven]

http://www.rgj.com/article/20120822/NEW ... urning-Man

Crossing my fingers the smoke subsides and that the Rush fire gets contained soon so hopefully half of the time out there is spent with some fairly clear skies.
Forest fire smoke is not a pleasant smell, and it is awful to breathe.
There is that fine line between horrid and not too bad with smoke.

Yesterday we couldnt see a 1/4 mile down the road if that.
Today it has lifted a bit, Definitely depends on the wino.

[RedHeaven]

NWS says the monsoonal moisture is gone and they're forecasting no heat waves thru early September. I'd still count on the typical afternoon dust-ups, though, and mandatory sage smudging from the Rush fire for another week or so.

Nice. I had a feeling that the heat waves would calm down and we would get some average temps come this time.

[Bob]

NWS also has gale warnings offshore here, which in my experience telegraph to more gusty winos on the playa.

[captain mcguiver]

From a friend on the ground:

"Definitely more dust today and more smoke. Some of us have started calling it smust. Somehow that feels kinda smutty and fun. You can really smell and see the smoke from the fire so plan ahead if you have issues with smoke. On the other hand, it makes the moon look all pinky-orange beautiful."

[steve.t.sullivan]

When people ask me how it went this year, I'll tell them that gusty winos endlessly blew smust in my face.

[Boijoy]

I'm in Reno & the smoke is bad. Course we are in a "bowl". It doesn't smell bad,, but the sky is brown(ish) & my eyes are burning a little.
Reports here is that the smoke will be with us thru the weekend.
Im sending out good vibes for those fire fighters. They are busting ass right now!
Im thinking the wino on the playa should be able to push the smoke out though.

[skippy3k]

Earth, Wino and Fire.

[Bounce530]

The smoke isn't going anywhere fast. Although I'm on the other side of the fire's, we've had smoke for the last three weeks.
Containment isn't expected (for the Chips fire) until the 31st. So expect some smoke through the event, sure there will be days with light/no smoke, but I wouldn't get too excited.

[maladroit]

If the main effect to cut the sun down a little, I think that's not too bad of a side effect. Hoping to see some really insane sunsets out there.

[RedHeaven]

Im not going to sugar coat the smoke. I am not asthmatic nor sensitive but you can definitely feel it if you exercise in it, and will feel the effects later. Its just not healthy to breathe, and cannot be masked like dust can be. Shits terrible but not going to let it get me down, I'll just be sure to wear a mask more often. I'll probably be doing that anyway.....Earth Wino and Fire for sure!!! :stocks up on extra zinfandel: