Playa Climate Prediction Center

[weather man]

... No rain on the playa all year...

Oh oh.

Yup. The playa looked pretty good.
Until you stepped on it.
Nice to meetcha Teardropper!

[teardropper]

Hey, Weatherman. Yeah, you too. Good fun. Thanks for the stickers. Always fun on the playa. Man, that was a good band.

I brought my playa bikes and my new trike. Tough riding, especially the trike. 2 1/8" tires felt skinny. But what are you gonna do?

What do you think? Soft and dusty?

[trilobyte]

The dusty apocalypse cometh!

[junglesmacks]

We're so doomed.

... No rain on the playa all year...

Oh oh.

Yup. The playa looked pretty good.
Until you stepped on it.
Nice to meetcha Teardropper!

[trilobyte]

Just pray the rains don't come early.

[MyDearFriend]

Just pray the rains don't come early.

SHUT UP sshhhhhh!!! you will jinx us all, gosh...

"The number of years you've attended Burning Man is not an accomplishment."

Yes... it is.

I understand where both parties are coming from, I think. Yes, getting ready for the playa and getting out there takes a lot of work and commitment. No, it doesn't make you a more worthy or deserving person...

You know what though Fishy, as far as I am concerned hard work and commitment are the only things that can make you a more worth or deserving person. Well intelligence and diligence help too, but, again that's what it takes to make it to BRC year after year. So, I am voting with Teardropper on this one.

[Simon of the Playa]

"Let BA'AL take care of His Own"

[teardropper]

Alright, besides the 6 minutes and 50 seconds I'll never get back, what was that about, Simon?

[Simon of the Playa]

just a little Jo'Ash history...

[oscillator]

Soft playa will just make it easier for the sandworms to get their groove on...

sandworm.jpeg

[Simon of the Playa]

d
o
o
m
e
d.

[H.G.Crosby]

did you already call stormy in Fairbanks and schedule it?

or do you want me to..

[theCryptofishist]

Just pray the rains don't come early.

SHUT UP sshhhhhh!!! you will jinx us all, gosh...

"The number of years you've attended Burning Man is not an accomplishment."

Yes... it is.

I understand where both parties are coming from, I think. Yes, getting ready for the playa and getting out there takes a lot of work and commitment. No, it doesn't make you a more worthy or deserving person...

You know what though Fishy, as far as I am concerned hard work and commitment are the only things that can make you a more worth or deserving person. Well intelligence and diligence help too, but, again that's what it takes to make it to BRC year after year. So, I am voting with Teardropper on this one.

Since Bbadger adopted that in response to all the people posting about how unfair it was that they had gone 8 times but didn't get a ticket, I'm giving him points.

[Ugly Dougly]

The Walking Beast loves soft playa, it can move faster on softer ground. I'm looking forward to this year regardless of what the weather is, but I would feel dissapointed if there isn't at least one good dust storm. I'd settle for a good thunder storm as well.

I guess you got some stompin' to to.

[robbidobbs]

That got me wet. BOO-YAH!

YOU STOP MOVING IN THIS.

And thank you Simon for the boost. I've lived it.


(edited because of keystroke/bandwidth delay time)

[Shambala]

Required watching for all first timers!

[BBadger]

You know what though Fishy, as far as I am concerned hard work and commitment are the only things that can make you a more worth or deserving person. Well intelligence and diligence help too, but, again that's what it takes to make it to BRC year after year. So, I am voting with Teardropper on this one.

Simply showing up to Burning Man multiple times implies "hard work", "commitment", "intelligence" and/or "diligence"?

That is patently false.

A counter-proof example: Joey-the-thief buys a ticket every year to show up on Thursday night in order to loot people's shit on burn nights, and perhaps sell some drugs while he's at it. He doesn't need to set up a tent, or even really bring in supplies, just a car to make his way off the playa when the job is done. Joey even steals bikes to get around the playa to scope out belongings. The haul is well worth the cost of the ticket and the trip out from Reno. BUT LO AND BEHOLD! He has attended Burning Man for TEN YEARS! Well shucks, he must be alright! WRONG.

A second counter-proof example: Jack-the-11th-year-burner-who-doesn't-get-it joins ePlaya, and starts off his first--and only--post with "I'm an 11th year REAL burner...", following up with a rant about how the less-worthy enemy-burgins have effectively STOLEN his righteously deserved ticket that he EARNED by showing up to the playa for 11-years straight. The one-man genius then posts a redundant "solution" to the problem: give tickets to people who have attended longer because they... uh... are the "real" burners. "We must preserve Burning Man for current--real--burners first!" Such a scenario played out multiple times in January.

Did either of these two individuals show "hard work", "commitment", "diligence" or "intelligence" at least in terms of community benefit? Joey might be showing some diligence and intelligence in exploiting the situation, but those are not positive qualities for the playa. While Jack is not a thief, nothing he says implies his benefit to the community other than his presence--which in my opinion is a negative.

The fact is that the only thing the BM attendance metric implies is that you have shown up at the playa multiple years. You could be the biggest plug-and-play, sparklepony, mooching douchebag and have attended BM every year in its existence, but that still makes you a plug-and-play, sparklepony, mooching douchebag who is less worthy than a burgin who has yet to attended Burning Man.

It's what you DO as a burner that counts, not just that you've shown up to the party.

We need to get back to fundamentals. The people who are the most impressive burners were probably already "burners" before they ever set foot on the playa. The playa doesn't change or create such people. The playa reaffirms their outlook on life, and you don't need years of attendance to do that. The best part is that you don't even need Burning Man to do that--but it's a great platform for great things.

[jkisha]

Meh. I think you're arguing for argument's sake there BBadger.

[BBadger]

Meh, kindly plonk me if you don't want to read it.

[Savannah]

I have a weird halfway thought.

The number of years one has gone matters very much to 1) the person who has been, and 2) to their friends. The possible mistake is in assuming that it matters to strangers. I think THAT is where the abrupt difference lies.

* It is understandable to calculate one's years of attendance as part of one's own algorithm of meaningfulness. It's almost unavoidable.
* It is also natural for the friends of a multi-year burner to hope to connect, and miss that person fiercely.

However, it is not likely that people who do not know you will care, because yes--the measure of awesomeness at the Burn is broad and varied, but merit and creativity and energy and contribution count. So many other things count.

How many years you've been is not the salt and pepper in the scrambled eggs. Perhaps, it is the DILL.

[knowmad]

....
We need to get back to fundamentals.
...

Meh. I think you're arguing for argument's sake there BBadger.

Nope he's arguing because he's a fundamentalist. just like any radical adherent to any religious. it all comes down to Our way or the highway, and the need to remain pure. along with the doom, and who is ruining it for the rest of us. and then if you have any opinion and choose to voice it you are encouraged to vanish yourself. leaving him free to claim and preach his version of true.
and it is pretty disrespectfull, but it's what they do.
yes the amount of years you have made it to the desert is an achievement.

[FeetOfClay]

regarding softness of the playa:

i am stunned to learn the playa can be so sand-like. i did know about dust storms from online research and videos, but i always thought the ground was rock hard--i guess b/c of the appearance of the cracked upper layer. but now i feel silly: if course it must get loose and powdery--that's where the dust comes from.

i look forward to feeling the ground when i get there, so that i can know what i am dealing with.
i have a feeling that my mental concept of being in a desert, and ACTUALLY being in a desert, may be somewhat different.

i can't wait to have all my expectations shattered and blown away like so much playa soil.

[Bob]

Jesus fuck, I've gone off & on since 1996, and I don't give a shit what anyone does or doesn't do, so long as it doesn't fuck anyone else's shit up. Want a summer camp run by Maoists? Go to fucking North Korea. Fuck that shit. Some people, eg the talentless and annoying, *should* be spectators.

Re: the playa soil, it's about half silt, half clay, and very little sand. Sometimes it cements itself at the surface over the winter and spring, sometimes it doesn't.

[FIGJAM]

regarding softness of the playa:

i am stunned to learn the playa can be so sand-like. i did know about dust storms from online research and videos, but i always thought the ground was rock hard--i guess b/c of the appearance of the cracked upper layer. but now i feel silly: if course it must get loose and powdery--that's where the dust comes from.

i look forward to feeling the ground when i get there, so that i can know what i am dealing with.
i have a feeling that my mental concept of being in a desert, and ACTUALLY being in a desert, may be somewhat different.

i can't wait to have all my expectations shattered and blown away like so much playa soil.

The closest comparison whould be talcum powder or flower.

Just a slightly different color.

[catinthefunnyhat]

OK, so over in the rebar thread it's being said that stakes should be twice (??!) as long as usual due to the powdery conditions.
I was thinking of using ground screws instead of rebar this year. This kind of thing:

...and I was wondering if these would still work in dry-playa conditions. Is the length rubric the same -- i.e., should I be looking for 2-foot screws to hold down a small tent? That seems a little OTT...

[jkisha]

Meh, kindly plonk me if you don't want to read it.

No thank you. I'd rather annoy you.

[FIGJAM]

I'm using these this year to anchor my 12x40 foot shade.

http://www.wholesalebolts.com/hexheadlagscrews3/8x14.aspx

No pounding or pulling, just LOTS or screwing!!!!

[Bob]

OK, so over in the rebar thread it's being said that stakes should be twice (??!) as long as usual due to the powdery conditions.
I was thinking of using ground screws instead of rebar this year. This kind of thing:

...and I was wondering if these would still work in dry-playa conditions. Is the length rubric the same -- i.e., should I be looking for 2-foot screws to hold down a small tent? That seems a little OTT...

For anything up to a family tent, I wouldn't change anything I wrote in the rebar FAQ I wrote about ten years ago (see my sig) except to add that MSR stakes or similar should work fine for tents, and 9" military tent stakes should work fine for small awnings, pounded flush with the ground surface. Tie a short loop of strong high-visibility cord to the stake so you can locate it after untying guy lines. Long lag bolts or threaded rod w/ nuts & a washer at the top are fine, but like rebar can shred your tent loops.

Anything else, see my FAQ. Depends on what you're staking. For anything very tall or large, something analogous to circus stakes, the 3/4" x 36" concrete form stakes DPW uses on the lantern spires, or the 40" screw anchors used on the Cafe should be considered, not so much short screws designed for turf like you posted.

In any year, you have to ignore the top few inches of the playa, it's always cracked or crumbly.

[catinthefunnyhat]

Thanks, FIGJAM and Bob!

We used huge rebar stakes last time, which was most certainly overkill. But we had fun cutting and bending them, and we drove down in a big van, so space and weight were not issues.

The MSR Cyclone Stakes (or similar) look like a good solution for us and easy to pack in our luggage for the flight. Added bonus: We'll keep them with our tent for "regular" camping as well. (Our current pegs are crappy and getting bent, one-by-one).

[Bob]

Back to the dust in general -- Rhino started a thread to discuss it here --

The word on playa dust and links for the newbie -

I gave him a hard time, because he extrapolated somewhat in ascribing regional geologic processes to include the Black Rock Desert playa, but I think he's on the right track, mostly. To my knowledge, no useful comprehensive studies have been done on the character of the lakebed soil. I did a little grain size and plasticity analyses, but it was on soil from the 1998 site about three miles north of Gerlach, when we were talking the BLM into approving methods to prevent burn scars, but nobody can tell you with confidence the mineralogy of the clay and silt, nor how much "alkali" there is in the airborne dust, the playa surface, or at depth.