My (fallible) predictions and take on this...
1) Many "sold" tickets are in the hands of both heartfelt Burners who had (non-attendee) friends enter the lottery so they could secure their own tickets; and in the hands of scalpers (there are already tickets at inflated prices on E-bay/Stub-hub). Many heartfelt burners who were awarded more tickets than they need might not (in the end) sell their tickets at inflated prices, but recognizing they hold a scarce commodity will vacillate/ hold on to their tickets until late in the game. This will have secondary effect of creating "Survivor Style" alliances, alienating some & pitting Burners against each other.
2) The STEP program will not work; it relies on the inherent goodness of heartfelt Burners with more tickets then they need who will be corrupted by the power they hold and sell their tickets at face value to their "better friends", and or wait until late in the game . Large theme camps will suffer (see #4).
3) Virgins who are were on the fence will give up on the whole idea of going and will give up & drop out in large numbers. Thus we will loose a lot of "new blood" and creative energy. Only well off Burners and not so well off, persistent die hard Burners will be left to vie for the remaining tickets.
4) Large established theme camps, and projects that require months of planning will both suffer.... diminishing the overall quality and feel of the event.
Radical Solution: Shitcan the whole lottery, refund the credit card charges and start again with a system where tickets are sold to individuals who must show ID at the gate, non-transferable.
More Radical Solution: Scalping laws are based on the State where the event is held, not where tickets are sold. Nevada is a state where scalping is legal.
Move the event to a State where scalping is illegal and have the community at large lobby for strict enforcement of the law.
