arthur5005 wrote:For the # of tickets requested I do some simple math here:
KestrelSF wrote:What frightens me at this point is the fact that in talking with my group, and other group leaders, there aren't any extra tickets amongst our membership. We had a few people that didn't really intend to go this year, but ordered tickets so we'd have extras, and none of them got tickets. I'm hearing the same thing from other camps.
We now have confirmation from the LLC that the 30% success rate is correct. While they won't release figures for how many requests were made, knowing the 30% rate it really is simple math to extrapolate the number. 40,000 / .3 = 133,333.
Now lets take a look at the growth curve for the last few years:
Now even given a good deal of publicity this year, even if we assume that new people wanting to go was at an all time high this year, I don't see how it would be conceivably possible to push the number of actual participants wanting tickets over 66,666 (or half of the 133,333).
The reason we don't see more scalped tickets on various sites? Simple. They don't have the physical tickets so can' sell them yet. Which ironically means that holding the ticket release date till June actually makes things WORSE for everyone. No one will be able to get their hands on the scalped / speculated tickets until then, way too late to put together any sort of meaningful camp / art project / mutant vehicle, etc. But plenty of time to rent yourself a CruiseAmerica RV and stuff it full of beer. Or worse, book yourself on one of those BM packages where they set up everything for you. I wouldn't be surprised if a good number of tickets went to those sorts of operations.
If this is even fixable at this point, it is going to require drastic and immediate action on the part of the LLC. It is clear that we will HAVE to go to non-transferrable ticket system. Sorry if that doesn't "feel" good for folks that feel like tickets should be transferrable, it's just the only thing that would work.
usurpedus wrote:2) everyone knows countless people that still need tickets
So please desist with this silly, silly fantasy that the "scalpers" are mean-spirited and venal Burners who a looking to make a quick buck. You are dealing with professionals.
AntiM wrote:jgailor wrote:theCryptofishist wrote:1 eplaya is NOT a representitive sample.
This is known because...?
There are a mere 36,000 users registered on eplaya. Many are inactive accounts, and many are "dead" spammers who haven't been weeded out, some are sock accounts of one person, and many are one post wonders who forgot their password and never came back, many are wannebas who never have attended and never plan to do so. We have less than 3,000 active posters here. Far less. I could look it up and give you exact numbers, but I don't want to. You could look it up, it is no secret.
So yeah, less than 1% of Burning Man attendees ever post on eplaya. Statistically, that is not a representative sample. Who knows, there could be a whole world of happy burners out there with no reason to go online and complain.
Kranster wrote:Let's see BM grows less than 10,000 people a year, even shrinking one year, but when a Lottery is announced against a backdrop of last year's network news about $1600 tickets on Craigslist, we suddenly jump from 54k to 133k ticket requests. Oh I want to believe it is the message of Burning love and one viral YouTube video. But I was not born yesterday.
I personally met a lot of young people who asked me about Burning Man, what famous bands played there, what the accommodations where like (LOL!), etc. Upon hearing the answers they were not interested in going to a hot, dusty desert without food and water, but they were all going to enter the lottery to try and win tickets to resell on Craigslist for $1600. "You cannot lose, man!"
No amount of vetting by BMorg could cull these scalpers because they are not professionals. Instead BMorg wants to believe the golden goose has suddenly laid a 125% increase in interest in Burning Man. No, it is an interest in winning a lottery.
This is great news for burners, there are a lot more tickets out there for resale than BMorg thinks. If BMorg adjusts the public perception the speculative bubble bursts soon so the community can get back on track. If people still believe in the Year of Burner World Domination and a sudden 125% growth year-over-year, they compound scarcity scare on top of having already done that. How to actually sell tickets in June/July instead of January! That is an epic fail to theme camps. So sad if we let it go that way.
Mitch wrote:I'm not an economist, though I HAVE played one on TV.
I think the sample IS valid because it's not only the people on ePlaya, but their reports of entire camps, encompassing thousands of Burners. Unless you think they're lying -- and Marian has reportedly confirmed the 1/3 guesstimation -- then you have to assume the number is valid.
This tells us a number of things, chief of which is that about 125,000 - 130,000 tickets were bid for in the first two sales. (That 1.7 number is meaningless, btw, could reflect one person in a couple bidding for 2 or 2 people bidding for 4, and doesn't indicate how many people or couples bid).
The other thing it tells us is that veteran burners plus a few newbies (whatever precentage are associated with theme camps) account for 14,333 of the tickets. I'd mentally bump that up a bit on the belief that practically all of the tix in the presale went to veterans and very few went to scalpers. So, let's say 16,000 are veterans, that means 27,000 are newbies or scalpers.
You can play with it from there, but I think demand last year, meaning the number of tickets that were purchased plus the number of tix that would have been purchased had the event not sold out, was no more than 80,000. Remember, the event didn't sell out until the summer. So, 40,000-50,000 bidders represent new demand, either from newbies or scalpers, and there you can take your pick. The OP's 50% IS in the ballpark.
What seems not to have happened is that veteran burners bought more tix than they and their campmates needed -- otherwise the theme camps would have done better.
I don't think the scalpers would list a lot of tickets now, they will want to maintain the perception that there's relative scarcity.
lessrules wrote:<--my brain is liking what this guy says
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