Main lottery order of drawing

[wendiwoman]

I've been looking far and wide for information on how the main sale drawings will actually be implemented. The process could influence whether or not I enter into the highest (most expensive) tier.

Possibilities are:
All low tier entrants first, to completion; then all remaining middle tier, to completion; then high tier to completion.

All high tier entrants first, to completion; then all remaining middle tier, to completion, then low tier to completion.

Draw names at random, and award each winner tickets at random from one of their chosen tiers.

Something else?

Does anyone have any real facts about this?

Thanks,
Wendi

[funkyjack]

I would really like to know the answer to your question. I was thinking the same thing myself. If I enter all three tiers will I get a chance at the lower tiers or will they fill tier three selections first and then go on to the lower tiers. If this is the case, if you choose to be in all three tiers you might as well expect that you're going to be paying $390.00.

[TT120]

I'm expecting to pay $390 and will enter all the tiers. If I get them at a lower price, awesome! More booze for me.

[Eric]

The tickets will be drawn: lowest tier- middle tier- highest tier; the same order they sold under the old system.

If you choose to enter at the $390 level, you should be prepared to pay the highest, but I wouldn't assume that's what you're going to pay; there are way to many variables in play: how many people request tickets; how many request at a low tier only but don't get that; where is your name drawn in a random selection...

[JayBobBoy]

Eric's right on it....as usual!

[Optimissm]

I hope it is the opposite of what Eric wrote. Here's why:

* That system guarantees some people will pay less than the highest tier they are capable of paying. Isn't that going against the tier system? Aren't we all supposed to pay as much as we are able?

* It also gives the people who can only afford the lowest tier the worst chance of getting tickets.

I hope the organizers will do a lottery for everyone who chose $390 as their top tier. Get those out of the way. Then do one for everyone left at $390 plus those who could only go up to $320 and award the $320 tickets. Finally, do a lottery with all the remaining people for the $240 tickets.

Good luck to everyone!

(P.S. I say this knowing that I'm going in at up to $390 and this gives me the worst chance at a lower tier. That's o.k. with me.)

[trilobyte]

Eric is correct. Your logic makes the assumption that people who are checking off the higher tier have that money to spare, which is unfortunately not the case. A lot of people are pinching their pennies, tightening their belts, and doing all that they can to set aside money for the ticket on-sale (as they have done in years past). While they may not be able to really afford it, Burning Man is that important to them and they are doing their damnedest to be radically self reliant. Drawing the tiers from highest to lowest denies many of them the chance to buy a lower priced ticket.

If you choose a higher tier and are awarded tickets at a lower tier, you can choose to help someone in need by simply finding someone who needs it and giving them money. There will be people who registered for the lowest tier but weren't awarded tickets, or burners who just weren't able to even register for the main sale… help them out directly so that they can participate in the secondary sale in March.

[Alexey]

This reminds me of math problems in my college Probably And Statistics class (which i nearly failed).
Has anyone else calculated the odds for each tier? I remember seeing a Math camp last year on the playa.

I registered at the $240 level (before reading this thread), my basic calculations showed odds of 1 in 3 of "winning"
The best strategy I assumed was to register for the middle tier.
But since there is the open sale later this year for $390 I decided to roll the dice and take the $70 loss between tier 2 and 3.
But now I'm doubting my assumptions...

-- http://tickets.burningman.com

[theCryptofishist]

We can't guess the odds, because we don't know how many people are registering and for which tiers they are registering for.
I think.
Let x be the # of people in for 1st tier and only first tier, y is 2nd tier and not third tier, and z equal those in 3rd tier.
So x + y + z = total number of tickets registered for.
Odds on first tier is ( x + y + z)/10,000, odds on second is [y + z - (number of 1st tier tickets won by people who also registered by people registered for 2nd and 3rd tier)]/10,000...

and so on

My algebra skills are rusty and were always more pencil on paper than computers (I'm old). The problem is that you are trying to find a variable (odds) that is defined by other variables (number of people registered for each tier). I don't think you can do that easily. Who knows, maybe there's another kind of math that might work.

I doubt it, though. you might be able to do a series of equations reflecting different possibilities.

[peachandpapa]

After the trials and tribulations of trying to get Coachella Music Festival tickets this morning, I'm sure there will be an influx of people joining the BM lottery to asure they get tickets!

[Rice]

I hope it is the opposite of what Eric wrote. Here's why:

* That system guarantees some people will pay less than the highest tier they are capable of paying. Isn't that going against the tier system? Aren't we all supposed to pay as much as we are able?

* It also gives the people who can only afford the lowest tier the worst chance of getting tickets.

I hope the organizers will do a lottery for everyone who chose $390 as their top tier. Get those out of the way. Then do one for everyone left at $390 plus those who could only go up to $320 and award the $320 tickets. Finally, do a lottery with all the remaining people for the $240 tickets.

Good luck to everyone!

(P.S. I say this knowing that I'm going in at up to $390 and this gives me the worst chance at a lower tier. That's o.k. with me.)

By definition, if you can only afford the lowest tier, you are at a disadvantage. You can afford, what you can. Either you get a ticket this year, or save the money from this year and add some more for the next. $25 per week into a savings account will give you $1300 to play with (that is $3.58 per day).

My understanding is that all of the people who entered only the tier 1 draw will be drawn. If any tickets are left over, the remainder are drawn from higher tier entries. Once all of tier 1 have sold out. The tier 2 draw starts with the tier 2 entries, if any tickets are left then the remainder are drawn from higher entries. Once tier 2 is sold out, the same is done for tier three. This draw method is less fair if there are more people than tickets.

[jkisha]

Hmmm...and yet another "understanding" on how the tickets will be drawn.
Has any "definitive" / "authoritative" answer to this illusive question been posted anywhere?

My understanding was there was one big pool so that those in all the price categories had an equal chance of winning a lower tier as those in only the lower tiers.

I hope it is the opposite of what Eric wrote. Here's why:

* That system guarantees some people will pay less than the highest tier they are capable of paying. Isn't that going against the tier system? Aren't we all supposed to pay as much as we are able?

* It also gives the people who can only afford the lowest tier the worst chance of getting tickets.

I hope the organizers will do a lottery for everyone who chose $390 as their top tier. Get those out of the way. Then do one for everyone left at $390 plus those who could only go up to $320 and award the $320 tickets. Finally, do a lottery with all the remaining people for the $240 tickets.

Good luck to everyone!

(P.S. I say this knowing that I'm going in at up to $390 and this gives me the worst chance at a lower tier. That's o.k. with me.)

By definition, if you can only afford the lowest tier, you are at a disadvantage. You can afford, what you can. Either you get a ticket this year, or save the money from this year and add some more for the next. $25 per week into a savings account will give you $1300 to play with (that is $3.58 per day).

My understanding is that all of the people who entered only the tier 1 draw will be drawn. If any tickets are left over, the remainder are drawn from higher tier entries. Once all of tier 1 have sold out. The tier 2 draw starts with the tier 2 entries, if any tickets are left then the remainder are drawn from higher entries. Once tier 2 is sold out, the same is done for tier three. This draw method is less fair if there are more people than tickets.

[junglesmacks]

[trilobyte]

Let me clarify and correct what I've said in the past regarding the order of the lottery drawing by saying that the information is nebulous on purpose. The BMOrg's goal is to make sure that as many people get tickets as possible. From the Ticket page (bullet points #3 & #4 under Main Sale):

• During the registration process you will need to select the highest price you are willing to pay for tickets. This may include you in draws for lower tier tickets, and you may be awarded tickets at the price you selected or at a lower tier.
• On or before February 1, a random selection will be conducted to award 40,000 tickets comprised of the following ticket types:
  - Tier 1 $240: 10,000 tickets
  - Tier 2 $320: 15,000 tickets
  - Tier 3 $390: 15,000 tickets

[Alexey]

We can't guess the odds, because we don't know how many people are registering and for which tiers they are registering for.
I think.
Let x be the # of people in for 1st tier and only first tier, y is 2nd tier and not third tier, and z equal those in 3rd tier.
So x + y + z = total number of tickets registered for.
Odds on first tier is ( x + y + z)/10,000, odds on second is [y + z - (number of 1st tier tickets won by people who also registered by people registered for 2nd and 3rd tier)]/10,000...

and so on

My algebra skills are rusty and were always more pencil on paper than computers (I'm old). The problem is that you are trying to find a variable (odds) that is defined by other variables (number of people registered for each tier). I don't think you can do that easily. Who knows, maybe there's another kind of math that might work.

I doubt it, though. you might be able to do a series of equations reflecting different possibilities.

Thanks theCryptofishist, nice mathematical explanation.

[weather man]

Let me clarify and correct what I've said in the past regarding the order of the lottery drawing by saying that the information is nebulous on purpose. The BMOrg's goal is to make sure that as many people get tickets as possible.

Crystal clear. Now I'm even more confused.

[Mofessor]

if the goal was to ensure that as many people as possible could attend, it seems that it would have been better to have ticket sales start in March so that people could use their tax return $$$ to pay for the tickets. Having the first round weeks before Christmas, and the second round start a month after, makes it more difficult for people that don't have large amounts of disposable income or credit.

[trilobyte]

Tickets used to go on sale in March, but both in response to people wanting to get tickets started sooner and the growing needs of the event it was necessary to get the ball rolling sooner (historically, half or slightly more than half of all tickets are purchased in January). Holiday pre-sales were another addition by popular request. It's just a tiny number of tickets at the highest price (this time, they were at a $30 premium over the highest tier), for those who really wanted to have tickets as a holiday gift for a loved one. In both the pre-sale and main sale, unsold tickets would be carried into the secondary sale which happens in March. If the majority of people really couldn't afford to buy tickets in January then the tickets would be added to the secondary sale in March.

[Mofessor]

you're probably right. It does seem like a double-edged sword. Whatever is gained from more people having $$$ to purchase tickets is probably offset by less planning time, as well as some of the other points you bring up.

[theCryptofishist]

if the goal was to ensure that as many people as possible could attend, it seems that it would have been better to...

...sell as many tickets as the BLM will let them.

But I don't see that happening...

[burntjburn]

My understanding is that all of the people who entered only the tier 1 draw will be drawn. If any tickets are left over, the remainder are drawn from higher tier entries. Once all of tier 1 have sold out. The tier 2 draw starts with the tier 2 entries, if any tickets are left then the remainder are drawn from higher entries. Once tier 2 is sold out, the same is done for tier three. This draw method is less fair if there are more people than tickets.

I don't know how the draw will be done, but what you've written makes sense to me.

[theCryptofishist]

My understanding is that all of the people who entered only the tier 1 draw will be drawn. If any tickets are left over, the remainder are drawn from higher tier entries. Once all of tier 1 have sold out. The tier 2 draw starts with the tier 2 entries, if any tickets are left then the remainder are drawn from higher entries. Once tier 2 is sold out, the same is done for tier three. This draw method is less fair if there are more people than tickets.

I don't know how the draw will be done, but what you've written makes sense to me.

It is not how it's done. Everybody in the lottery, whether their tier is Ist, 2nd or 3rd will be in the first tier drawing. 2nd tier will have everyone in 2nd or 3rd who didn't win a first tier ticket. and all persons in the third tier who didn't win tickets will be in the 3rd drawing. This has been discussed in many places in the ticket forum.