Poll on what tiers will you participate in

[bradtem]

One of my main questions in looking at the new system is whether the tiers are a good idea or not. Tiers serve various purposes in event tickets. In the past, the most eager and early could push for a cheaper ticket. The new tier system exists to let buyers say, "I want tickets at $240, but do not want them if they are $320" or "I want at $320 or less but not at $390." I am curious as to how many people will take that approach to purchasing their tickets. A self-selected poll is not reliable but we still might get some information from the poll I have posted here. Please select what you think will be your likely strategy based on the new system.

While I have outlined the main strategies, there are more that would add too much complexity to the poll. For example, everybody who loses will of course look in the aftermarket for face-value tickets at the price they liked.

And of course, the reality of how many people act is somewhat irrational. There will be people who will enter at say the $240 level, but once they lose, express regret and be ready to pay much more in the secondary sale or after market. But few will answer a poll with such an irrational strategy, so I leave it out. However, I have included an option of going in at $320 and then doing aftermarket if you lose, since that costs no more and lets you have time to decide, though it is riskier and the wrong choice if you really were willing to pay $390. In fact, I sneakingly suspect that many people who enter a low tier and lose will change their minds, but it's not easy to quantify that now.

I would like to add a second poll to this, namely "I would prefer there were just 40,000 tickets at $325 in the main sale" though of course anybody entering above $240 would say that. The unanswered question is how many people who would enter at only $240 would pull out in a flat price main sale.

[bradtem]

Whoops. I quickly noticed I had left off the choice of low income tickets, so I added that, but that erased the 3 entries in the poll prior to that, which were 2 entries of "pre-sale and on" and one of "$390." Sorry about that, it makes sense that it clears the poll if you edit it though early addition of a choice might be something it could withstand.

[bradtem]

Well, only 14 entries. I guess passion about a topic does not translate into wanting to participate in actual measurement. The distribution here does not surprise me a great deal but the number is so small you can't conclude anything. At least among the respondents it seems to be a few who need lower income and most who are ready to pay the full $390 if they have to, with effectively nobody saying "$340 or bust." The poll runs for 10 days or so.

[Flame]

Bradtem, I like the concept of this poll. But it assumes that people, in formulating strategy, will register for only the tickets they need for themselves. I personally expect that the average will be something like 1.6 tickets registered for per person that needs tickets. I expect that most people that register in the pre-sale and at the highest tier of the main sale will register for more than they need, at about 2 tickets registered for per 1 needed. I expect that this registration for more tickets than needed phenomena will be much less prevalent at the lower tiers. This creates a very interesting effect, making it much more likely that a lower price ticket will go to someone who doesn't need it.

This about it this way, let's divide the burner population into 2 groups- economically challenged, and non economically challenged. The average economically challenged person can only afford the lower tiers and will only register for what they need. The average non econimically challenged person will register for the highest tier and for more ticklets than they need. Assume both groups are equal size, and that the non-economically challenged group will register for 2 tickets per 1 needed, this would mean that the non-economically challenged group is twice as likely to get a lower tier ticket than an economically challenged person is, and that 2/3rds of lower tier tickets will go to non-economically challenged burners.

It's an odd effect. How do you fix it? Well here's one solution to partially fix it. If you win, you pay the highest price tier you were willing to pay if any tickets are left at that level. So if you said you were willing to pay $390, then you win an early draw, you still pay $390 and that makes 1 less ticket available at the $390 tier. Doing this would take some of the population on non-economically challenged people out of the pool at the lower tiers. It wouldn't entirely fix the discrepancy, but it would add some more fairness to the lower tiers.

[Sail Man]

Me personally, I'm sitting out for '12 to see how/if the new ticketing process actually works and/or fucks up everything.

[danibel]

The thought of sitting out makes me cry. I can't really afford more than $240 for a ticket. I lost my job <insert sob story here>. I will put down my Visa card for a shot at level 1 and level 2, in hopes that I get one golden ticket. I could hold out and try to write the essay of my life in the low-income pool, but I have little faith in my luck right now. Specially since I think they will receive an overwhelming amount applications this year.

It costs a lot more than the ticket to get to BM. Since 2012 would be my 4th year, I am grateful that I have most of my supplies. I could get away with buying only water, food, and paying for gas, as long as I have a ticket...

[danibel]

It's an odd effect. How do you fix it? Well here's one solution to partially fix it. If you win, you pay the highest price tier you were willing to pay if any tickets are left at that level. So if you said you were willing to pay $390, then you win an early draw, you still pay $390 and that makes 1 less ticket available at the $390 tier. Doing this would take some of the population on non-economically challenged people out of the pool at the lower tiers. It wouldn't entirely fix the discrepancy, but it would add some more fairness to the lower tiers.

I wish was the way it was going to work. It makes the most sense. I think this would also cut down on scalpers who are going to look for the biggest opportunity to get tickets - they will register for all three tiers and end up paying $390 a ticket. This could help cut into the aftermarket profits since the open sale will also be at that price point, and therefore discourage the scalping masses from flooding the "random selection."

[bradtem]

Yes, I decided I could not represent every strategy in a poll, particularly stratagems relating to getting tickets for other people. Plus people are (in spite of the poll being anonymous) probably not quite so willing to admit while logged in that they plan to game the lottery, buy extra tickets just in case, etc. Though that is definitely something you want to measure.

I felt these strategies summed up most of the plans people might make for themselves and those close to them.

One of the questions you would want to answer with the real data that comes in the actual lottery is how much the tiers truly matter. I will be very curious to learn how many people come in at $240 only. Particularly how many non-scalpers though I don't know a good way to tell them apart. For Burners, going in at $240 only is a big risk, and in theory means you truly mean that this is all you can afford (or that this is all BM is worth to you.) For scalpers, going in at $240 is wise, as there is no risk to a $240 ticket, you can be sure you will sell it for a nice profit. Unfortunately they won't get to ask "are you a scalper?" on the form.

As for the distribution of winners, they have not said what that will be and they may want to avoid saying it.

[junglesmacks]

As for the distribution of winners, they have not said what that will be and they may want to avoid saying it.

How do you read that they're avoiding it? They clearly stated how many tickets will be available in each tier..

[Sassy Britches]

Bradterm,

One reason you may not have gotten so many respondents yet to the poll is that people are likely still trying to figure out what they will do. This will change as time marches toward and after November 28th...

[Savannah]

Agreed . . . people haven't made up their minds as to which tier . . . and once they do, they probably don't want everyone else copying them.

I also think there is (early on) a frenzied temptation to order the maximum! number! of tickets! . . . and there will be a helluva lotta multiples, but by the time registration rolls around, folks are slightly more likely to order like they usually do, whether it's for just themselves or for themselves and a reliable partner. $800 is not a small credit card bill.

[pyrocat]

Thank you for this. This Data is the only way to make an informed decision.

[48_love]

I already changed my mind. I didn't realize that the Open Sale (or what is seemingly becoming synonymous with the Secondary Market if it wasn't always the same thing) was at $390. Having never been but appreciating what must go into execution of the event, $420 (x2) is outside of my willingness to pay. I'll go with the Full Monty in the Main Sale. Then if I get barred, I'll seriously consider entering the Secondary Market. I'm sure I'd get in, but at that point, I'm not sure I could have the right vibe at the event ... like I had to try SO damn hard just to gain entry! Not that trying is the issue, but I don't want to expect anything from it but at a certain 'price' I think it's natural to think, however contrary, 'to what exactly am I entitled'?

But, I'd do my best to wipe the slate clean and try to let it all soak in!

edit: my poll entry and original plan was - I will enter the main sale at up to $320, and (probably) not go if I lose

[danibel]

I am kind of surprised at the 5 that are not going now. Are those 5 people really not going? Or is someone checking that box to try to make a point? And if that is the case - what is the point?

[BBadger]

And give away my ultimate strategy*? Hell no!


(* which has yet to be devised)

[junglesmacks]

Personally, I don't think that the last option has any bearing on the ticket sales. I feel that if someone is answering that on here, they're more looking for an outlet to cry/whine/complain than anything else. There's no way that 7000 people are not going simply because they changed the ticketing process.

[remi]

Everyone in my camp is going to put their name in for 4 presale tickets at 420. (We have lots of couples, so every couple will put there name in for 4 tickets.) We assume some people won't have there shit together, and some won't have there name drawn.. so if we can get half of the people to get 4 presale tickets, then everyone should be covered. If we end up with extra, I'm sure we'll be able to find a good home for them (nonprofit) That seems pretty safe, and incase we don't have enough tickets, there are still 2 more rounds of tickt sales.. so I feel pretty safe.

[trilobyte]

Now there's a show of wealth!

[remi]

Now there's a show of wealth!

I'd say more like a cc that's not maxed out.. which I am fully willing to do so to ensure a ticket. I got my priorities set. Especially when the early birds are just 30$ more, and that could be an xmas gift to the gf.

[remi]

Now there's a show of wealth!

Also benefits to be in a DINK relationship (Duel Income No Kids.) I appologize if it seemed as I was trying to make myself sound better then others because I have the opportunity and resourses to apply for a presale ticket. I didn't mean for it to come out that way, Im just determined to get a ticket, even if I have to sell shit, or max out a cc. (Thanks Trilo for pointing out my "i'm better then you, nah nah nah nah boo boo" attitude, which was not cool of me. My appologies)

[wh..sh]

I appologize if it seemed as I was trying to make myself sound better then others because I have the opportunity and resourses to apply for a presale ticket.

Don't apologize for being able to afford things and for being richer. Please...
I still consider US of A to be land of dreams where everyone can achieve the status they want without being apologetic about it.

[remi]

I appologize if it seemed as I was trying to make myself sound better then others because I have the opportunity and resourses to apply for a presale ticket.

Don't apologize for being able to afford things and for being richer. Please...
I still consider US of A to be land of dreams where everyone can achieve the status they want without being apologetic about it.

Ya, but I'm Canadian, so we appologize for everything. Someone punched me in the face last weekend and I appologized that my face got in the way of their fist.

[wh..sh]

Ya, but I'm Canadian, so we appologize for everything. Someone punched me in the face last weekend and I appologized that my face got in the way of their fist.

Fair enough...

[remi]

I find it hard to believe that 10% of people won't come anymore because of the lotto system. I think they're holding on to false hope that if they continue to protest the lotto, BMOrg may change their mind.

[Ratty]

I voted but I keep changing my plan. Here's one I haven't thought through. I'll buy a pre-paid visa card. (I don't even know what it is). Hey. If it's just a gift card with no ID attached to it I could work the system as fast as I can type. Scratch that plan. I'm registering for 1 ticket at the highest price. Like Gordo said, "I'm having a big slice of pie. I deserve it". If I don't get a ticket at that rate or the next salad spinner they stick me in, I'll buy one in the sale or some darn place. I imagine there will be quite a few at $420 available. If I get 1 at $420 I could get 2 more at $240. (A little detail like one registration per person won't stop many. Now I'm into this plan for $1,000 including postage). Then I'll sell the expensive one but now my son finds out I have an extra and he wants to go. Nope...Scratch that plan. I liked the old system. Mail it in on day one and get the cheapest ticket. My head hurts. I'm gonna knaw on the turkey carcass and mull it over.

[Jenifersteppat]

It makes me nervous not to try to get in at the $420 pre sale level, but I just can't bring myself to do it because I think all who enter that will get the $420 ticket and I just can't bring myself to leave a potential lower priced ticket on the table...fingers crossed I get to go!

[fknsellers]

It bothers me that BMOrg kept the tiers while going to the Lottery system. The idea of the tiers was to allow lower income burners to buy a cheaper ticket. And you were asked to purchase the highest priced ticket you could afford in years past so that other less fortunate community members could still go. Having tiers was the reason for the "ticket Crash of 2011" last January. Everyone tried to get the lowest priced ticket. So BM decides to do a lottery to keep control of the over flooding of burners trying to buy at the exact same minute. Problem is, the lottery takes away everything that the tiers stood for. With the lottery, there is no telling who will get which tier. And worse than that, it forces you to purchase the cheapest ticket available. Not the highest you can afford.
This system seems backwards. And the point that a ticketing agency can flood the pool with entries at the lowest tier (easier for someone to buy 100 pre-paid visas with 100 different email addresses than having 100 employees trying to get on a server at the same time) And there is nothing to stop them.
In my minds eye, you have two choices.
-1- Eliminate the tiers. Keep a flat price in the middle for the first 40,000 tickets. No need to lose $. In doing that, you could eliminate the lottery because you won't have 10,000 people trying to buy tickets all at once.
or
-2- As stated earlier, have the lottery sell you the highest priced ticket you are able to afford until that tier is sold out. Then you would move to the next lowest tier. And so on. Still doesn't eliminate scalpers flooding the lowest tier with entries, but allows more low income burners a chance to afford to go.

Nothing can change how tickets will be sold this year, that ball has already started rolling, but all ideas should be put out there so that BMOrg can have more ideas for the future if this one doesn't work. Personally, my wife and I will go for the $320 and if we get shut out we will have a month to decide if it's worth another $150 for us to go. Probably will be.

[theCryptofishist]

We've been over this several times in this subforum, and the upshot is that the llc believes that the low tiers were no longer (if they ever had been) going to lower income burners, and that plenty who bought in the first hour could afford higher tiers were snatching them up for their own use.

And yes, the llc could change things on the basis of this lottery.

[AntiM]

Imagine the joy a simple a few free tickets could generate. And the buzz. Two randomly chosen burners get free tickets in each tier (or could be in pairs), and two in low income. Wouldn't that be fun? And just plain nice?

[Dr. Pyro]

Certainly would be as long as I was the one who won.