Sold out = this many tickets

[weather man]

The "Sold Out" number is a moving target based 50,000 AVERAGE daily participants, and the 50K average isn't really a hard number, just an "infrastructure designed for" figure.

I seem to remember that last year the max number on Playa was ~55,000 and the early week numbers were in the upper 30,000's.
Does anyone know what the average was??

From the 2011 BLM Permit:
Black Rock City, LLC (BRC) is required to manage its advance ticket sales and on-site ticket
sales in such a manner that the safety infrastructural resources of the event, which are
designed to handle an average of 50,000 participants per day for the eight-day event, are not
overtaxed.... If during the event it appears that the peak population is likely to exceed
BRC’s ability to provide adequate infrastructural resources, then BRC will promptly notify
BLM of the projected event population and provide detailed contingency plans for how to
handle the additional participants. BRC shall provide the Bureau of Land Management
(BLM) with the number of participants within the event site at noon each day according to an
agreed upon reporting standard......

[FIGJAM]

I thought the censes said 51k and change?

[weather man]

I thought the censes said 51k and change?

People were moving around pretty quickly, so I'm sure I double counted quite a few.

From the BM Twitter Acct-The population of Black Rock City 2010 topped out at 51,454.

[junglesmacks]

The "Sold Out" number is a moving target based 50,000 AVERAGE daily participants, and the 50K average isn't really a hard number, just an "infrastructure designed for" figure.

I wouldn't think that the sold out number is a moving target at all.. there has to be a hard number cap.

EDIT:

According to the 2011 permit acceptance letter issued by BLM, the event is capped at 50,000 participants

.pdf of permit letter - http://www.blm.gov/pgdata/etc/medialib/ ... cision.pdf

Supporting docs - http://www.blm.gov/nv/st/en/fo/wfo/blm_ ... g_man.html

[weather man]

There are three documents on that page.
The first appears to be an operating plan submitted by BMORG with the "50,000 Average" verbiage.
The second is the acceptance letter from the BLM with the 50K max participants wording.
The third doc is the " 2011 Permit Stipulations" document which mimics the Operating Plan (paraphrasing)- "We will have and average of 50K and if we exceed it, we'll let you know".

The 2011 acceptance letter and the 2011 stipulations are at odds. Unless the acceptance letter is a further stipulation of the stipulations document...

I just looked at last years stipulations and they DID have a hard cap at 50K, which apparently was exceeded:
...required to manage its advance ticket sales in a manner to keep the maximum population of the event from exceeding 50,000 participants

[junglesmacks]

The letter though is the only document created entirely by the BLM though, no?

Also, as I understand it.. the 2006-10 permit had a population growth stipulation added which would have let them exceed the 50k by the 4th year of the permit, whereas the one time 2011 permit doesn't have a growth stipulation added.. (from what I understand)

[weather man]

The letter though is the only document created entirely by the BLM though, no?

It looks to me like BLM says to BMorg, "Fill out the SRF Form and then create an addendum (stipulation document) that will satisfy some additional concerns that we have and become part of your permit"

There is a similar 2010 stipulations file on the BM website:
http://www.burningman.com/preparation/b ... tions.html

Note that while the 50K people number is bandied about in both docs but the 2011 wording is MUCH different in that it speaks to the "average" number of people. Even then doesn't say the average number absolutely cannot exceed 50K, only that they will notify BLM and then tell them what they are going to do about it.

[weather man]

The letter though is the only document created entirely by the BLM though, no?

It looks to me like BLM says to BMorg, "Fill out the SRF Form and then create an addendum (stipulation document) that will satisfy some additional concerns that we have and become part of your permit"

There is a similar 2010 stipulations file on the BM website:
http://www.burningman.com/preparation/b ... tions.html

Note that the 50K people number is bandied about in both docs but the 2011 wording is MUCH different in that it speaks to the "average" number of people. Even then doesn't say the average number absolutely cannot exceed 50K, only that they will notify BLM and then tell them what they are going to do about it.

[junglesmacks]

Finally found the most definitive answer yet directly from Marian..

“Our BLM permit is the restriction. We are between 5-year permits and this year we need to stay with the max-population to be within 2% of last year’s max-population. We grow every year more than that, so we couldn’t allow the natural growth for 2011, we’ve had to shut things off to stay within the BLM’s comfort zone. Capacity is a relative term in the desert. We need to stay near the max pop of 52,000.” – Marian Goodell (7/25/2011)"

52k is the magic number.

http://gayburners.com/sold-out

[weather man]

Finally found the most definitive answer yet directly from Marian..

“... we’ve had to shut things off to stay within the BLM’s comfort zone. Capacity is a relative term in the desert. We need to stay near the max pop of 52,000.” – Marian Goodell (7/25/2011)"

52k is the magic number.

Good. They got that actuary (or someone good with math). From the other thread:

It's up to BMORG to not sell a number of tickets that would jeopardize their ability to hold the event in in the future. If it was my company, I would have hired an actuary to go over past years data and come up with a magic number- How many tickets I can sell and still maintain an overall 50K population. Obviously, BMORG has hit that number and decided that they are "Sold Out".

I got my ticket. You got yours?
Let's go burn!!

[junglesmacks]

I got my ticket. You got yours?
Let's go burn!!

You know this, brotha. 1st tier - #400something in line the first day. Those that plan.. burn..

See you in the dust!

[Bay Bridge Sue]

Those that plan.. burn..

See you in the dust!

I gotta quote that!

[unjonharley]

I got my ticket. You got yours?
Let's go burn!!

You know this, brotha. 1st tier - #400something in line the first day. Those that plan.. burn..

See you in the dust!

Got my ticket in a timely manner.. What ever happened on the first sale day. I ended paying 260.. Now I have medical issues.. Will be sadly selling my ticket for 260 plus handeling 280.. A real burner would not buy or sell a ticket for more than face value...

I want to believe the BM org will ajust for next year and we will all burn in the dust again..

[junglesmacks]

What ever happened on the first sale day. I ended paying 260..

Yeah, I was 400something in line and like everyone else, got bumped back to 14,000something and paid $260.. but.. after emailing the BORG was given a refund no questions asked down to tier 1 like everyone else that emailed..

FWIW, I'm betting next year that you'll need a little more documentation as to your original place in line if the same thing happens. I plan on taking physical pictures of my computer screen and documenting as best possible from the word go.. and in fact paying extra for a Christmas pre-sale.. holding it.. getting a tier one if I can.. then selling the Christmas pre-sale for face value after.

[adiboll]

unjonharley--if you still have that ticket for sale i'm all over it! in bay area, can make an easy swap.

[junglesmacks]

Those that plan.. burn..

See you in the dust!

I gotta quote that!

I'm honored!!

Even though I said dust, not desert

[Bay Bridge Sue]

Those that plan.. burn..

See you in the dust!

I gotta quote that!

I'm honored!!

Even though I said dust, not desert

Oops, thanks!

bb

[weather man]

Finally found the most definitive answer yet directly from Marian..

An even *more* definitive answer from the US Government Bureau of Land Management
http://www.blm.gov/pgdata/etc/medialib/ ... 080311.pdf
It's essentially a repeat of the previously mentioned stipulation and confirms that there is no "hard cap".
My Over/Under is still 58K. Come over and give me some action, JS
Interesting NEW information is that BLM is evaluating an increase to 70,000

[junglesmacks]

Finally found the most definitive answer yet directly from Marian..

An even *more* definitive answer from the US Government Bureau of Land Management
http://www.blm.gov/pgdata/etc/medialib/ ... 080311.pdf
It's essentially a repeat of the previously mentioned stipulation and confirms that there is no "hard cap".
My Over/Under is still 58K. Come over and give me some action, JS
Interesting NEW information is that BLM is evaluating an increase to 70,000

oooooooo that's quite a find! Nice work, WM. I could definitely see the BLM cap being raised in the future. More pop = more $$ for the government. Why WOULDN'T they want to raise it? The BORG has shown remarkable follow through with the LNT. Sparkly smiles and all.

The problem with an over/under for this year is that even if say.. the population exceeded the 52k-ish number, I highly doubt that it would be reported correctly lest someone get busted for it. As for the "official" numbers, I'm betting no higher than 53k at the very outside.

In reality? 56k tops..


Whatcha wanna play for?

[BBadger]

The problem with this year is that it's between long-term permits. The 2006-2010 permit expired, and they're negotiating a 2012-2016 permit now. 2011's permit is a stop-gap, and I wonder if it was hard-capped (see this regarding "maximum") because it wasn't bound to the terms of the previous permits which assumed and permitted growth.

I think BMOrg actually prints up far more tickets than are ever sold, because they're allowed to provide "contingency plans" for over-population conditions, and they probably have the facilities to handle it, so it has never sold out despite surpassing 6% growth multiple times in a row.

[Cheyenne]

junglesmacks wrote: Those that plan.. burn..

See you in the dust!

Too right mate TTOOOOOOO RRIIIGGHHHTTT!

+ 1

[Savannah]

The problem with this year is that it's between long-term permits. The 2006-2010 permit expired, and they're negotiating a 2012-2016 permit now. 2011's permit is a stop-gap, and I wonder if it was hard-capped (see this regarding "maximum") because it wasn't bound to the terms of the previous permits which assumed and permitted growth.

I think BMOrg actually prints up far more tickets than are ever sold, because they're allowed to provide "contingency plans" for over-population conditions, and they probably have the facilities to handle it, so it has never sold out despite surpassing 6% growth multiple times in a row.

That makes the most sense of anything I've heard.

[trilobyte]

It was hard capped because this year's extension was part of waiting for the results of an environmental impact study. The concern is that, despite the herculean cleanup efforts, the event is having a longterm impact on the environment

[junglesmacks]

2011's permit is a stop-gap, and I wonder if it was hard-capped (see this regarding "maximum") because it wasn't bound to the terms of the previous permits which assumed and permitted growth.

Yes.. this is exactly what I've been trying to say. Since we are a special 1 year permit, the annualized growth rate (should?) not apply.

It was hard capped because this year's extension was part of waiting for the results of an environmental impact study. The concern is that, despite the herculean cleanup efforts, the event is having a longterm impact on the environment

I'm very curious if you or anyone knows about the progress/status/ETA of that study?

[weather man]

Whatcha wanna play for?

I play for..... fun

Since I can tell yer an edumacated man....
Here's something else to digest(burp) -part of the "Stipulation Report" from part of 2008.
http://www.spatial-ed.com/images/docume ... lation.pdf

Apparently, in 2008 the maximum pop had a HARD CAP of 50,000. The report even mentions how close they came to a violation .
If you look at the AVERAGE population for 2008 (like they are doing this year), it's only 39,000.
(For clarification, "average" takes the total people in the city on each of 8 days, adds them up and divides by 8 )

2008 Average = 39,000
2008 Max= 50,000 (it's mentioned elsewhere in the report that 55,000 tickets were sold)

2010 Average = Need to be close to 50,000 (52,000?)
2011 MAX= could be as high as 60K, and still easily remain within the BLM comfort zone of 50,000 avg.

[weather man]

It was hard capped because....

So just to be clear, you guys read the new document I linked to from the BLM that specifically addressed the question of Population Cap, yet did not state one?

[trilobyte]

Just to be clear, when I said "it" was hard capped, I mean the event tickets.

[trilobyte]

Junglesmacks, I don't know many details on the progress/status, other than it was due to be completed before the end of 2011.

[The CO]

Weather man, what exactly is your question?

[capjbadger]

Weather man, what exactly is your question?

It was a rhetorical question of "Why are you still stating a 'hard limit' when the BLM contact makes NO mention of one?"

-Badger